Welcome back to Week 3 of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. It is still very early, of course, but numbers are beginning to become more meaningful. Let’s see if we can discern what might be an unlucky start and what is more worrisome.
Marcell Ozuna, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Other than a subpar stretch from 2021-2022, Ozuna has been a solid slugger, consistently posting a wRC+ well above 100. He also doesn’t strike out as much as one might expect. He has a 22.2% K% for his career and has walked at a 9.0% rate.
In 10 games and 44 PA in 2026, he has a .051/.159/.051 slash, 25.0% K%, 11.4% BB%, and -31 wRC+. He is 35 years old and is not the most athletic guy. Is he in decline?
His K% is only slightly higher than normal, and his SwStr% is actually 1.3% lower than his career average of 12.2%. He also has a BABIP of just .071. His Bat Speed has slowed down a little, but it is still a very solid 73.4 mph.
Verdict: Patience. While the chart above does show a steady decline in Hard Hit%, corresponding with a similar drop in wOBA, the last few years, Ozuna is a streaky hitter. His early-season metrics seem fine, and I expect him to post similar numbers in 2026 as he has the last few years. He has just had some bad luck. He still has strong Bat Speed and solid Plate Discipline. That will always be a winning combination.
Cedric Mullins, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Across 2,124 PA from 2022-2025, Mullins had a 237/.308/.403 slash, 21.0% K%, 8.5% BB%, 66 HR, 107 SB and a 101 wRC+. That’s a solid combination. In 56 PA this year, he has a .137/.182/.255 slash, 23.2% K%, 3.6% BB%, and 20 wRC+. What’s going on here?
For one thing, his Bat Speed is down to 70.1 mph vs 71.1 mph last year. However, he’s had dips like this in the past, and it could be due entirely to the cold weather.
His Hard Hit% is low, but it is within normal ranges for him over the last few seasons. His Sprint Speed is still good, and his Plate Discipline is not the issue.
Verdict: Patience. The hitter with a career .282 BABIP has just a .158 BABIP this year. Mullins’ Sprint Speed is declining, but good. His game is still largely dependent on speed. Having a GB% that is 13 points lower than the rest of his career is largely to blame for that low BABIP. If he starts hitting the ball on the ground more, he’ll go back to what he’s been doing the last few years.
Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
Coming into this year, the 29-year-old Bohm had 2,949 PA, a .279/.328/.415 slash, 17.6% K%, 6.4% BB%, and 103 wRC+. In 60 PA this year, he has a .148/.233/.222 slash, 16.7% K%, 8.3% BB%, and 33 wRC+.
His Bat Speed is down .9 mph, but again, this is likely due to cooler weather.
The biggest changes I see are that his Swing% is nearly 10 points lower than his career, and his Hard Hit% is down nearly 11 points.
Swing% difference between 2025 and 2026. Blue=lower Swing% this year.
Verdict: Patience, but watch his aggression. It seems to me Bohm hasn’t quite found his confidence yet and is being too passive. He is not swinging at pitches in the middle and inside parts of the plate as much. This is where most damage is done by a hitter. Because of this, he has yet to have a Barrel, and his ISO is way down to .074. He has never been a big power bat, but he has more pop than this. He’s too good an all-around hitter to maintain a .163 BABIP, too.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
