Welcome back to Week 15 of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. This week, I’ll be breaking down three popular players (roster rates of 75% or higher in 12+ team leagues) that have struggled recently.
As always, feel free to let us know in the comments or by tagging us on social media what players you would like to see us focus on in the future! Let’s dive right in.
Marcell Ozuna, OF, Atlanta Braves
Ozuna, 34, was off to a scorching hot start to the season during a contract year, but has since regressed tremendously.
His base production has evidently fallen off a cliff over the past three weeks. On top of the numbers above, his K% has risen four ticks, and he owns a -1 value (minimum) against all pitch types outside of changeups over that span.
Verdict: patience. Ozuna’s high BB% profile allows me to have a little patience. The OBP certainly isn’t where it should be, but his ability to draw walks allows me to give him a longer leash to return to form. On top of this, his contact rates, whiff%, or EVs haven’t faltered, so it doesn’t seem like physical regression has kicked in. The xStats — .265 xBA, .479 xSLG, .377 xwOBA — as well as a BABIP twenty-one points below his career average, are also indicating that Ozuna has been unlucky. Plus, who knows, maybe a fresh start with a team that acquires him at the deadline is what he needs?
Clay Holmes, RHP, New York Mets
Holmes, 32, was proving the haters wrong throughout a good portion of the first half of the season, but has recently struggled to string together solid outings (fantasy-wise).
Holmes hasn’t had a scoreless outing since April, has walked at least four batters in each of his past three starts, and the homer total is starting to leap while the strikeouts grow scarce. Not ideal.
Verdict: panic, mostly. I like Holmes a lot as a pitcher in general, but in terms of fantasy, he’s just not my type. He’s going to be a high FIP/WHIP combo arm, which is something I try to stay away from. On top of that, he’s already reached a career-high in IP prior to the All-Star break… as a fantasy manager or the Mets themselves, you have to assume there will be a production block at some point. The stuff will naturally regress due to the IP, thus leading to less Ks like we’ve seen. The lack of command and BB% uptick is what puts this over the top. In a deep league (depending on available options), I’d think about it, but in your average league, I’m moving on.
Hayden Birdsong, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Birdsong, 23, was really effective throughout spring training, yet was demoted to the bullpen. He was a really quality bulk option there, so finally, San Fran gave him a chance in the rotation. He was good for one start, then chaos ensued.
Verdict: panic. I just dropped Birdsong today in both of my super competitive leagues. Similar to Holmes above, the BB% uptick combined with the high FIP/WHIP combo is what triggered the drop. He just hasn’t been good as a starting pitcher, and it’s unfortunate to watch. The BB% was the key for him coming into the year. He showed great improvement early on, but that hasn’t been the case lately.
Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
