Welcome back to Week 13 of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. We’re in the thick of it now and can have more confidence in the underlying numbers.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Arenado has, of course, had an excellent career, but has been in decline since 2022. In 1,683 PA from 2023-2025, he had 99 wRC+. Not bad as a compiler, but not up to his lofty standards. However, he got off to a hot start this year and there was some hope he was experiencing a mini-resurgence. On May 8 his wRC+ was 204. After all, he had only just turned 35.
It’s been downhill since then, though. In 147 PA since, he has a .208/.313/.328 slash, 20.4% K%, 10.2% BB%, and 80 wRC+. He’s been even worse since the end of May.
For whatever reason, he became a lot more aggressive at that time.
As you can see, even with his increased aggression, he still swings less than league average. However, this has coincided with him losing a feel for the strike zone and making uncharacteristically poor decisions.
Verdict: Patience. This is just a slump. Professional hitters like Arenado don’t just suddenly lose a feel for the strike zone for good. All his background metrics remain in line with who he has been the last few years. Expect him to return to a league-average hitter who also accumulates because he plays a lot.
Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals
Perez has long been a source of power and RBI from the catcher position. We all know about the 48 HR he had in 2021, but from 2022-2025 he averaged 26 HR and 90 RBI. He may have finally fallen off a cliff in 2026.
In 305 PA this year, he has a .205/.252/.343 slash, 18.7% K%, 3.9% BB%, and 58 wRC+. He’s been especially bad in June.
His K% is the same as it was in 2024-2025. The most notable decline is in his power. His .134 ISO would be the lowest of his career and is 57 points lower than his career average. What is causing this?
Perez has always been extremely aggressive. He has a 98th percentile Swing%, 1st percentile O-Swing%, and 1st percentile Zone%. What is surprising is that that very low Zone% is comparable to what it’s been throughout most of his career, even when he was having success.
His Decision Value+ is very poor, but, again, it has been throughout much of his career.
Verdict: Panic. His Bat Speed is down 1.3 mph, and his Fast Swing Rate% is down nearly 13%. Combine this with terrible Plate Discipline and a lack of athleticism, and it’s difficult to see him succeed much again. He may begin to sell out for power, but a modest increase in HR will likely be cancelled out by a drastically increased K%.
Eugenio Suárez, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Much like Perez, Suárez has carved out a career as a great power hitter. Across the 9 seasons from 2017-2025, he averaged 32 HR, a .331 OBP, .235 ISO, and a 117 wRC+. He also had a 28.1% K%, but pitchers still couldn’t stop him from doing what he does best.
Has that swing-and-miss finally caught up to him recently?
In 194 PA this year, he has a .208/.268/.365 slash, 34.0% K%, 7.7% BB%, and 70 wRC+. That K% is the highest of his career and is supported by a 15.2% SwStr%. He also has a career high O-Swing% and a career low 5th percentile Contact%.
His Contact Ability+ has been dropping the last few years and is now entering lowly territory.
Lastly, even his power is dropping off to merely average.
Verdict: Panic. I could go on and on about his poor metrics. I suppose he could heat up as the summer goes on, but I wouldn’t expect him to be anything more than an occasional source of HR.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
