Welcome back to Week 7 of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. In Week 6, I reviewed the likes of Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee, Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez, and Pittsburgh’s Ke’Bryan Hayes. While I believe one week is most definitely not enough of a sample size, let’s review what they’ve done since:
- Bibee (patience): 7.0 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 3 K
- Rodriguez (patience): 6-22 (.278), HR, 0 BB/3 K
- Hayes (panic): 6-20 (.300), 0 XBH, 1 BB/5 K
The star of the week was Bibee who bounced back in a big way versus a quality Phillies lineup, turning in a 9-whiff, 25% CSW rate performance thanks to his healthy six-pitch mix. I really liked his changeup in this one.
Feel free to let us know in the comments or by tagging us on social media what players you would like to see us focus on in the future! Let’s dive right in.
Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins
Alcantara, now 29, simply hasn’t been himself to start the year. He’s in line to post career-worsts in nearly every stat imaginable and has fantasy owners panicking like crazy. Ask me four years ago if I’d ever see his roster rate drop below 90%, let alone 70% on Yahoo, and I’d think you were crazy. Just thinking about four seasons ago…
*Alcantara missed the 2024 season due to Tommy John Surgery
A lot of issues have come via command. Pitches that were strikes or out-inducing are now belted over the wall for home runs. The BB%, also a massive concern, has more than doubled between the two years. The .265 BAA on a .294 BABIP isn’t ideal either. There is a large gap in real ERA and FIP, however, but the FIP still isn’t in the range we’d like to see.
Verdict: Patience — mostly. I refuse to panic about Sandy. His struggles, mostly stemming from command, are all part of the number of side effects post-Tommy John. The physical part, velo, remains up. He is still generating a good amount of ground balls (49.1%) which is nice to see. While his K% is down, the whiff% is still in his normal range, so there are positive signs. Not to mention, he’s being held on a leash by one of the worst organizations in baseball. We saw Garrett Crochet go through some minor struggles when the White Sox held him back last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if his ERA is nearing 4 at the deadline, and if/when the Marlins trade him, I think we see a new type of Sandy come out to play. This is a former Cy Young arm that will bounce back at some point once the rust is off.
Michael Harris II, OF, Atlanta Braves
Harris had a down year last season while dealing with a right hamstring injury that landed him on the 60-day injured list in June. He had a full spring and was ready to go, but somehow has come back producing even worse results.
It’s fair to start to worry about Harris — there is quite a bit of blue we’re not used to seeing on his savant page. But do I really believe he’ll keep producing at this rate all season long?
Verdict: Patience. Harris has started to pick up production since mid April, slashing .275/.292/.396/.687 with an 84 wRC+ and a minuscule 11.5% K rate. Over the past week he’s been even better, going 8-for-23 (.348) with two extra-base knocks and two walks. Not to mention, his expected numbers are all vastly outproducing his real numbers. xBA (.276), xSLG (407), and xwOBA (.307) indicate to me that he’s due to bounce back, and he may be in the midst of that stretch right now.
Jordan Walker, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
I don’t know what to say. I thought this would finally be the year that Walker put it all together, but it seems like that isn’t the case. He’s slashed .180/.252/.246/.498 with a 45 wRC+. His AVG ranks sixth-worst among all qualified hitters. wRC+? Third-worst. How about his .231 wOBA? Second-worst. And of course, the 32% K rate is good enough for fourth-worst in the show. What’s even worse is that the expected numbers aren’t even close to doing him any justice — 10th percentile or below in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, whiff%, K%. The only pitch he’s legitimately doing damage on are sinkers (.320 AVG), but even then his SLG (.360) remains below average and he whiffs 22% of the time.
Just not how you imagined it would go for him.
Verdict: Panic. It was pretty clear this was the answer. He’s turned in elite bat speed (77.7 mph), but none of that matters if you can’t actually hit the ball and be productive. I’d imagine this is his final season with the Cardinals and a team looks to scoop him up at either the deadline or this offseason as a project. There is still immense talent here, but he just hasn’t been able to produce yet.
Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
