Welcome back to Week 7 of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. It is still early, of course, but numbers are beginning to become more meaningful. Let’s see if we can discern what might be an unlucky start and what is more worrisome.
Trevor Story, SS, Boston Red Sox
As my colleague Jeffrey Farek wrote about 5 weeks ago, Story is a streaky hitter. Unsurprisingly, his success is largely tied to his K%. In his best years, his K% was usually around 24-27%. In his worst years, it’s 30-34%. Farek commented that Story’s O-Swing% and Z-Contact% were both well below his career averages. That was in early April at about Game 10.
Well, since then, his wRC+ has skyrocketed, and his O-Swing% and Z-Contact% have both been steadily improving. Likewise, his K% has also been trending downward towards the upper 20s.
Verdict: Mostly Patience. Story’s Plate Discipline certainly seems to be improving. However, his batted ball metrics are down across the board. He has only stolen 4 bases, he is 33 years old, and has a fairly extensive injury history. His ceiling is not what is once was.
Caleb Durbin, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Another Red Sox is off to a very poor start. In his first season last year, he had 506 PA, a .256/.334/.287 slash, 9.9% K%, 5.9% BB%, and 105 wRC+. This came with a nice 11 HR and 18 SB. In 141 PA this year, he has a .173/.255/.252 slash, 13.5% K%, 7.8% BB%, and 42 wRC+.
His underlying Plate Discipline metrics are nearly identical to last year. However, he is hitting nearly 16% more ground balls. A 58.9% GB% with a 7th percentile Bat Speed explains his .079 ISO and .252 SLG. GB% stabilizes quickly and Durbin doesn’t have a long track record of hitting more line drives and fly balls.
Verdict: Panic. Durbin might be a better real-life than fantasy player. He has good speed, but 76h percentile isn’t fast enough to make such a high GB% work. His GB% could certainly go down and make him a more balanced hitter, and his .196 BABIP will certainly go up. However, I don’t think his ceiling justifies holding on to him to see if he improves. He does not hit the ball hard enough.
Matt Wallner, OF, Minnesota Twins
Wallner has always run high K%, but prior to this year, that has not prevented his success. In 972 PA from 2022-2025 he had a 32.3% K% but a 131 wRC+. This is largely due to his excellent power. Over this span, he had 51 HR, a .485 SLG, and .254 ISO. That ISO is the 9th best over that period, sandwiched between Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Soto.
In 131 PA this year, he has a .172/.276/.302 slash, 37.4% K%, 7.6% BB%, .129 ISO, and 63 wRC+. His GB% is even up nearly 18 points. Not a good idea for a slow power hitter. About the only thing he is doing well now is swinging the bat hard.
His Contact% is down to 60% and SwStr% up to 20.9%. This means his K% is earned. I also saw for the first time FanGraphs’ Waste Swing% stat. Prior to this year, Wallner’s W-Swing% was between 3.5% and 5.2%. This year it is 16.4%. I’m guessing that is bad.
Verdict: Panic. I don’t know if Wallner will get his K% down to reasonable levels, but he very well might now. Guys like him (Gallo) can fall apart really suddenly.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
