Now that turkey season is behind us, we can start thinking about the 2026 MLB season! Baseball never sleeps, so here's our first version of Fantasy Baseball Projections ready for 2026, powered by Pitcher List's PLV.
These projections utilize three core projection families:
- Previous results in the target metric (with different regression weights for each stat and for various playing times)
- Underlying metrics that influence the target metric (CSW%, xwOBA, Chase%, Barrels, etc)
- PLV pitch modeling metrics for both hitters (Swing Aggression, Power+, Process+, etc) and pitchers (per-pitch PLV outcome predictions, Mistake%, NC%, etc)
Each target metric uses unique regression weights for these three components to best estimate next season's performance. This has a few main impacts:
- Each metric has a different impact time frame for projecting. Ex: Hitter Stolen Base Attempt rate relies heavily on the most recent year's results, while Pitcher BABIP utilizes a more even weighting across the last three seasons.
- Each metric has a different location along the randomness/skill spectrum when projecting. Ex: Pitcher LD% is pretty noisy and is heavily regressed toward the league average for the following seasons, while Hitter K% rate is a better indicator of a player's talent and is only lightly regressed.
- Each projected metric has a different balance of using results/underlying metrics/pitch-modeling. Ex: Observed Pitcher BB% results have a higher weighting for projecting, while underlying metrics make up a larger share of their projected strikeout rate, and PLV metrics make up a significant share of Hitter ISO.
Differences from v1 in 2025:
- Mostly algorithmic playing time projections (with tabs for per-600 PA for hitters and per-160 / per-60 IP for pitchers). I try to keep my thumb off the scales as much as possible, though I try to incorporate news as it comes in (especially for new injuries/injury recovery).
- MiLB and international players are projected (player pool is currently 876 pitchers and 657 hitters, and growing. Just enough for all of your 30-team, 50-player leagues)
- More location distinctions for PLV hitting stats (Attack Zones)
- A better weighting system for players with less playing time or a shorter career to draw from, so rookie and injured player projections better reflect what they've shown and cut through small sample or missing data issues.
Future iterations will include:
- A renovated PLV model, which better incorporates pitcher release traits
- Bat tracking (bat speed, swing length, swing tilt, depth of contact, etc)
- Anything else I (or Nick, or Rick, or Scott, etc) can think of!
You can access all our 2026 fantasy baseball tools and projections (including future updates!) inside the PL Pro Tools menu at the top of the page.
