With the season winding down, there is a slight change this month to the article cadence. This would typically be the spot for the Minor League pitcher performance report. However, with many Minor League levels seeing their regular season wrap up a couple of weeks ago, we are switching gears. This month, we are featuring prospects dynasty managers should be buying and selling at each position. This recaps 2024 and highlights which names are being undervalued and which are being overvalued in dynasty leagues.
Be sure to head over to the Pitcher List dynasty page to check out the rest of the performance reports as well as plenty of other content from the dynasty team.
Pitchers to Buy in Dynasty
Jarlin Susana- WAS
For some reason, it seems like the hype surrounding Jarlin Susana was higher two years ago than it is now. Susana was one of the many pieces that went back to Washington in the Juan Soto trade and has taken big strides in his development this season. The right-handed fireballer has found himself pop up throughout several articles I have written this year. Susana has been featured in the Minor League pitcher performance reports, as well as the National League East farm system report. I guess I just cannot write about him enough, as he is now being featured as the top pitching prospect that dynasty managers should be targeting today.
Early in his professional career, Susana was a high-variance pitcher. His velocity popped off the screen consistently sitting in the upper-90s at just 18 years old. However, Susana also struggled to limit the free passes walking 11.2 and 14.1% of batters in each of his first two professional seasons. Last year, Susana’s strikeout rate plummeted speaking to his inconsistent secondary offerings. The shine of Susana’s fastball velocity wore off quickly and he was no longer viewed in the same way by dynasty managers entering 2024.
This year, it was more of the same for Susana. Through his first eight starts, Susana was barely striking out 25% of batters while walking 14.4% of batters in his third stint at Low-A. After that start on May 24, Susana looked like a completely different pitcher on the mound. Across his last 16 starts of the season, Susana has lowered his walk rate down to 9.3% while seeing his strikeout rate jump to 39.4%. His elite performances on the mound led to a promotion to High-A where he continued to make batters look silly. Susana struck out 36.8% of batters in High-A despite being three years younger than the average hitter he faced.
This season, Jarlin Susana was the only Minor League pitcher age 20 or younger to throw 100+ innings while striking out at least 35% of batters. Susana’s potential is not just good, it is great. With a triple-digit fastball, a plus slider, and a solid changeup Susana has front-end potential not many other pitching prospects have. With his control becoming less and less of a concern, Susana’s potential should be vaulting him up prospect lists…. but it is not. Susana’s name is not mentioned in FanGraphs’ The Board, he ranks just 94th on MLB.com’s most recent update and comes in at 84th on Baseball America’s top 100 list. All of these rankings are way too low in my opinion.
Two weeks ago, Jarlin Susana did not have a double-digit strikeout game in 2024.
Now, he’s repeated the feat for two straight weeks to end his run at the Class A levels.
The @Nationals flame-throwing righty is No. 4 on our weekly 🔥Hot Sheet🔥https://t.co/lXBuHorrwA pic.twitter.com/0v6bTMMxjM
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) September 10, 2024
Susana should be considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. The stuff is off the charts, his age-to-level production was incredible this season, and there is still room for him to get even better. Susana is not going to be the cheapest name on this list, but is one you will not regret acquiring.
Didier Fuentes- ATL
Didier Fuentes signed with the Braves without much fanfare back in January of 2022. After signing with the Braves for $75K, Fuentes put together a strong debut season in 2022 before coming stateside at 17 years old in 2023. The momentum from Fuentes’ strong DSL performance did not carry over to Low-A. Injuries limited Fuentes to just 26 innings, where he posted a 7.27 ERA. Not on any radars entering 2024, Fuentes is changing that fast. He is certainly a name for dynasty managers to know and somebody that you should try and buy in on now before it is too late.
Watching Fuentes on the mound, the success he finds on his four-seam sticks out. Fuentes sits in the low to mid-90s, with the pitch routinely averaging around 93 mph on it. In today’s game, 93 is nothing to write home about but Fuentes has excellent success with this, seemingly blowing it right past hitters. The late life and arm side run help the pitch play faster than it actually is and provide him with the confidence to throw it in any count. At just 19 years old, the hope is Fuentes can continue adding velocity to his stuff. This could take the pitch from a 50-grade offering to a 60-grade pitch. Fuentes also mixes in a whirly slider and solid changeup that both profile to be solid offerings.
The Braves organization routinely produces pitching prospects out of thin air. We saw it with Spencer Strider a few seasons ago and are seeing it again with Spencer Schwellenbach this season. Fuentes could easily become the next big name to roll through Atlanta’s system. At 19, he struck out over 32% of batters he faced this season while lowering his walk rate down to 6.9%. He seemed to get stronger as the season moved along posting a 2.21 ERA across his final nine starts.
Fuentes might be the only player featured in this article that some dynasty managers may not have heard of. That making buying Fuentes all the more feasible. His price in many leagues is free and in the 2% of Fantrax leagues where he is rostered, the price to acquire him is not going to be very expensive. Go get him now before the 2025 breakout occurs.
Honorable Mention:
Moises Chace- PHI
Buy the hype. Moises Chace was one of the many overshadowed arms in Baltimore’s farm system but has seen his dynasty stock take off since his trade to Philadelphia. The 6’1″ righty has posted strong strikeout rates throughout his professional career thanks to impressive stuff. His four-seamer hovers around 95 but plays faster than that. The pitch gets excellent late rise on it with good arm-side movement. He commands the pitch well up in the zone and then mixes in his excellent sweeper to make opposing batters look foolish. Chace also has shown solid development to his changeup that has held lefties to a .164/.287/.231 triple-slash this season.
Command has been the biggest concern here but that has gotten better since joining the Phillies. After walking 13.5% of batters with Baltimore this year, Chace has seen his BB% drop to 8.9% with Philadelphia. While his spotty control creates a level of relief risk, it is no greater than the relief risk of other top prospects such as Jacob Misiorowski and Noble Meyer. With a 37.1% strikeout rate on the season, Chace deserves to be in this tier of prospects. The best part for dynasty managers is that you can get Chace for way cheaper than those other two names. He is a great upside-buy in dynasty this off-season.
Pitchers to Sell in Dynasty:
Cade Horton- CHC
Cade Horton entered 2024 with as much helium as any pitching prospect. Horton’s success in the Minor Leagues appeared to have him on the fast track to the Major Leagues. He was in the same tier as names like Jackson Jobe and Paul Skenes back in March. Many around the fantasy community were even disappointed that Horton did not start 2024 in the Major Leagues. Looking back, that would have been the perfect time to sell high on Horton in dynasty leagues. Hindsight is 20/20, but despite his value taking a bit of a hit now is still a great opportunity to sell Horton in dynasty.
Horton’s 2024 season got off to a fast start. The Cubs sent Horton back to Double-A where he made five starts pitching to a 1.77 ERA. Horton’s dominance on the mound pushed him further up dynasty rankings and earned him a promotion to Triple-A. This is when everything started to fall apart. Horton’s strikeout rate dipped a bit but the real issue was with his walk rate. After walking just 3.2% of batters in Double-A, Horton’s walk rate ballooned to 13.6%. Horton allowed 15 runs in five starts before his season was cut short due to a right-lat strain. Horton initially suffered the injury after his start on May 29 and suffered a setback in early August that put an end to his season.
Highlighting Horton as a sell option after five Triple-A starts and an injury may seem like an overreaction. However, one of the benefits of Horton’s promotion to Triple-A was the ability to get Statcast data. Even in small samples, this data gives us an inside look at how a pitcher’s arsenal projects to perform at the Major League level. The results for Horton were extremely underwhelming.
So much of dynasty is capitalizing on value. Value is based as much on the perception of a player as it is on actual performance. Horton is still highly regarded on most major publication sites. The (non-baseball obsessed) dynasty manager will most likely go to FanGraphs or MLB.com for their assessment of prospect value. Despite the rough season, Horton still ranks highly on both sites coming in at 48 on FanGraphs and 28th on MLB.com. He is one of the top-ranked pitching prospects on both sites, sure to catch the eye of the standard dynasty manager. This is not to say I am totally out on Horton. His slider is excellent and he still ranks inside of my top 70 prospects for dynasty leagues. However, this is to say the general value of Horton in most dynasty leagues is higher than it should be. This makes now a great time to sell high on Horton in dynasty leagues.
George Klassen- LAA
Contrary to Cade Horton, George Klassen was not on many dynasty radars entering the 2024 season. The Phillies’ sixth-round pick from 2023 came out of the gates firing on all cylinders. Starting the season in Low-A, Klassen posted a 0.71 ERA through his first nine starts. The Phillies saw enough to send Klassen to High-A and dynasty managers saw enough to make Klassen one of the most sought-after pitching prospects on the waiver wire. Although Klassen’s ERA jumped following his promotion, the strikeout rate remained steady. Klassen struck out 35.2% of batters in five starts at High-A before being traded to the Angels at the trade deadline.
A trade to the Angels is the first red flag here. While dynasty managers should never specifically avoid prospects from one team, there are certain organizations that are far more reliable when it comes to player development. The Dodgers always seem to have a never-ending farm system of prospects. The Rays are typically excellent at getting the most from their pitchers. The Angels however have not produced a reliable starting pitcher for fantasy in some time. Dating back to 2017, the Angels have not produced one pitching prospect who has found success as a part of their Major League staff. They have just three qualified pitchers over that time who have posted a season with a sub-four ERA (Shohei Ohtani 2022, Dylan Bundy 2020, Tyler Anderson 2024). They have had intriguing prospect names too such as Chase Silseth, Ky Bush, Sam Bachman, Reid Detmers, and Griffin Canning all in the past few seasons. Klassen’s trade to Los Angeles could prove disastrous for his player development track.
Running with that theory, Klassen is going to need time to develop. His run of success in the low levels of the Minor Leagues was impressive, but he has faced challenges against tougher competition. After the 0.71 ERA in Low-A, his ERA jumped to 4.22 in High-A and has risen even further to 5.65 in Double-A. The biggest knock on Klassen coming out of the University of Minnesota was his control. Part of the helium to his dynasty stock early was how he seemingly solved this issue with the Phillies. However, since being traded to the Angels, Klassen is walking 16.9% of batters. Considering Klassen was drafted out of college, it seems more likely that Klassen just got by with his plus stuff in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues rather than making actual improvements to his control. The more advanced competition is having no trouble laying off Klassen’s pitches and taking their walks.
Part of the lure to Klassen is that he shows flashes of utter dominance. Take his most recent start, where Klassen pitched six no-hit innings while striking out 12. This is why selling high on Klassen is so easy to do. His dominant starts catch the eyes of those in the dynasty community, generating far more value than his consistency should. In an organization dynasty managers do not trust with spotty control, there is plenty of risk in his profile. Dynasty managers should capitalize now and recoup plenty of value in the process.
Honorable Mention:
Dylan Lesko – TB
Sometimes, selling low is not a bad thing. While the common phrase is “buy-high, sell-low”, there comes a time when it is better to cut your losses while you can still garner some value in return. This is the advice for Dylan Lesko, who continues to plummet down dynasty rankings. Lesko was just the 15th overall pick last season but has failed to live up to lofty expectations early in his career. The start of Lesko’s career has been abysmal. Through his first 31 professional starts, Lesko owns a 6.54 ERA with a walk rate of over 18%.
While high walk rates are common for pitchers early in their careers, Lesko has failed to show any reason to believe things are going to get better. Lesko’s control has been worse this year than last year and even a trade to Tampa’s organization has not turned things around. In six starts with Tampa, Lesko has seen his walk rate balloon to 31.4% and owns a 9.42 ERA. In fact, amongst Minor League pitchers with more than 80 innings pitched, Lesko owns the worst walk rate in all of the Minor Leagues. Obviously, his value has taken a major hit but dynasty managers should be looking to sell. Thanks to his draft pedigree, Lesko still holds some name value amongst dynasty players even if his on-field performance suggests he should not have any left. Sell now, before the rest of his dynasty value disappears.