As we rush headlong into the final weeks of the season, we’ll take a closer look at some hitters who might have started slowly but seem to be surging into September. If you’re new to PLV, you can find Nick’s primer here.
Note: Stats and PLV data are current through Monday, September 2nd.
Lawrence Butler
Don’t you love it when unheralded players emerge in Fantasyland, like our cover man Lawrence Butler? Managers lucky enough to scoop him off the wire are now loving life. Last Thursday, he capped a week for the ages with three dingers at the Great American Ball Park. Imagine if he played half his games there instead of Oakland. Over the last 30 days (25 games), he’s ninth with a 1.003 OPS. His .356 wOBA would be good for third among qualified rookies, but alas, he lost his rookie eligibility last year (129 PA).
PLV’s latest metric, Process+ assesses a hitter’s true talent level by evaluating a combination of power, decision value, and contact ability. Nate Schwartz recently wrote a fantastic article explaining the Process + metric, check it out if you missed it.
One note for the Process + rolling charts: they are based on per-pitch, whereas the power rolling charts are per batted ball. I didn’t post any power rolling charts this week. However, this is to note that if you happen to look at Power and Process+ rolling charts side-by-side for a particular player, you might notice they don’t match because they are defined by slightly different parameters.
With that in mind, Butler’s rolling Process+ chart isn’t too surprising considering all the baseballs he’s belted into the seats lately.
However, what you might not have noticed amidst his homer barrage is that he’s striking out at a 23.1% rate, four points lower than he did during his brief call-up last season. PLV confirms a solid jump in Butler’s contact ability from 97 to 106. He and Brent Rooker, whose 141 power grade is tied with Giancarlo Stanton for seventh among hitters with at least 80 BBE, have given the A’s a surprisingly powerful 1-2 punch.
Alex Bregman
Having turned 30 while posting a career-low .329 wOBA, Alex Bregman is ticketed to be forgotten in drafts next year. He’s also an impending free agent, so, the timing couldn’t have been worse for him. Still, he could be poised for a strong finish provided he can shake his recent elbow injury. His power has trended up in a big way (+6.2 over his last 400 pitches faced).
Jackson Chourio
Top prospect Jackson Chourio started quietly with a .294 wOBA and 87 wRC+ over the first half. But as a kid who turned 20 in March, nitpicking his performance would be silly. And yet, we’re now starting to see why the Brewers were so bullish on letting him learn on the fly. Swing decisions remain a work in progress (90 DV), but again, that’s nitpicking. In the meantime, we’re seeing his power come along quite nicely (+3.3 over his last 400 pitches faced).
Gavin Lux
Roses are red and violets are blue. Baseball is hard and prospect growth isn’t linear. One of baseball’s top prospects not that long ago, Gavin Lux has been rolling along hitting .300 with a .934 OPS over the last 30 days (24 games).
Lux’s recent surge is backed by strong batted ball metrics (+5.7 power over his last 400 pitches faced) and contact ability (+1.5) but also comes with a slight downturn in swing decisions (-1.0 DV). At the risk of being late to the party, (it wouldn’t be the first time) I’m not entirely sold on the breakout just yet since he came into the year with a .312 wOBA and 99 wRC+ over 1,003 career PA; I want to see more before I get too excited. Still, those who hoped Lux might prove a classic post-hype breakout have good reason for optimism.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Selected 19th overall by the Mets out of Harvard-Westlake High School four summers ago, PCA has provided the Cubs with stellar baserunning and defense from the get-go. However, he’s really turned up the heat with his bat lately, hitting .321 with a .928 OPS over his last 24 games.
So what have we seen lately? Better swing decisions and more power (+3.8 over his last 400 pitches faced). PCA has chased a bit too often (72 oDV) overall this year. But, we’re starting to see him creep in the right direction.
Yes, PCA still has a long way to go, but if he can continue to approach league-average swing decisions, he could be a dynamo given his stellar athleticism.
Corbin Carroll
I’ll admit, I struggle with the idea of streaky hitters. Do they really exist, or is the whole hot and cold thing just an attempt to rationalize the variability of this crazy game across various sample sizes? At what point does a streaky hitter become consistent and vice versa? I guess it’s an open-ended question with no real answer.
Anyway, I’ll jump out of this rabbit hole and into another by acknowledging that Corbin Carroll’s recent power binge has reminded me of another Carroll creation: Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland. After hitting five home runs over his first 404 PA, Carroll’s power stroke decided it was late for a very important date. He has now gone yard 14 times over 171 PA in the second half. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more dichotomous tale than Carrol’s sophomore season.
Maybe there was a swing change or something? Was it the shoulder? Or maybe it was simply variance, and we’re now catching the pendulum swinging the other way. Regardless, I look forward to the discourse surrounding the 2023 NL RoY this off-season. Carroll’s power is below-average on the year (95) but as you might’ve noticed, it’s skyrocketed lately (+8.2 over his last 400 pitches faced).
Jake McCarthy and Jake Burger
In his article explaining Process+, Nate Schwartz mentioned Mark Vientos and Xavier Edwards to illustrate differing paths to success, ie power versus contact. In that case, I think we’re witnessing another suitable pair of foils named Jake. Jake Burger is in a three-way tie with Shohei Ohtani, and Anthony Santander for the second-most home runs in the second half (15) behind Aaron Judge (17).
Burger’s power rating is up to a robust 125 on the season (15 points equates roughly to a standard deviation). However, Burger’s swing decisions are almost on the opposite end of the spectrum (76), illustrating his impressive power; he’s thriving despite decidedly poor swing decisions. Burger is unleashing his furious bat speed with reckless abandon. As the Sultan of Swat said, Swing hard in case you hit it.
Jake McCarthy, meanwhile, has been productive, hitting .314 with a .876 OPS over his last 26 games. Unlike Burger, McCarthy is decidedly below average in the power department (90). Instead, Jake the Snake’s recent success has been driven by exceptional contact ability (117; Burger is about average in that department).
I’ll admit, I’m a little skeptical that McCarthy’s success can continue considering it has also come with below-average swing decisions (93 DV). That, and the fact we saw McCarthy fall into a part-time role while posting a . 644 OPS before being demoted last year. The floor is a trap door. Still, BABIP-driven jackrabbits can be a boon in fantasy land.
Spencer Torkelson
Torkelson found himself in Triple-A Toledo after posting a .264 wOBA and 69 wRC+ through his first 54 games. However, he returned to Detroit on August 17th and has since put together a .389 wOBA and 157 wRC+. Torkelson’s streak of favorable results hasn’t been as long as Carroll but he’s similarly adding a ton of power (+8 over his last 400 pitches faced) after a mysterious drought.
Sure, the recent sample size isn’t long, but considering that he’s shown good swing decisions (above) this year (111 DV), I’m encouraged that he can return to last year’s form when he belted 31 home runs with a .326 wOBA and 107 wRC+. Perhaps the former first-overall pick can be the latest example of better late than never.
Photo by Larry Placido/Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Twitter and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)