As we look at risers and fallers in points leagues, the focus should not just be on how players are performing, but what their role is.
Are your hitters suddenly leading off or batting lower in the order than expected? Have they gotten an off-day, and is it because the manager put them in a platoon? Or did they get subbed out at the end of a game for defensive reasons?
As for pitchers, did they get pulled after just 70-80 pitches, or were they allowed to work deep into the game? And could anyone on the IL or in the minors threaten their rotation spot?
As volume is everything in points leagues, these are the questions you want to answer beyond just whether a player gets hot. So, given their role and their performance, who should you buy in on, and who should you leave alone?
Risers
Five homers actually ties last year’s total, so Meidroth’s made changes to improve in the power department (it’s actually hard not to improve on last season’s 1.6% Barrel rate). And though he’s striking out considerably more this year than last (22.0% to 14.3% in 2025), his Whiff rate has only gone up a few ticks, so I’d expect the K-rate to drop a bit.
Meidroth absolutely scorches lefties with a .965 OPS, knocking seven doubles in just 56 at-bats and getting on base 43% of the time. He’s also got a 12:7 K:BB ratio against them, which is quite a bit better than the 43:17 mark he carries against RHPs. Now that he’s hitting first against them, continued success here will drive up his overall numbers, and we saw that in May as he finished the month with a .282 average and .789 OPS. The White Sox lineup is still potent without Murakami, and Meidroth’s becoming a big reason why. Is he a slugger? Not yet, but he’s finding a happy medium after last year’s extremely power-sapped campaign.
With Elly De La Cruz out for a spell in Cincy to nurse a sore hamstring, Bleday now moves up to second in the lineup and should get even more opportunities. Since coming on for the Reds on April 26 (where he homered), Bleday’s been an absolute masher. And his stats are supported by stellar metrics, including a 98th-percentile Sweet-Spot rate, an 86th-percentile Barrel rate, and an Average Exit Velocity of 90.9 mph.
Unlike Meidroth, Bleday is a slugger—but he also doesn’t strike out very much (19%). And he’s hardly a free-swinger, with an 84th-percentile Chase rate. So for points leagues, his profile translates very well—he’s walking nearly 15% of the time, getting on base almost 40% of the time, and has eight doubles to go along with the double-digit home runs.
So Bleday’s success should not be attributed to an extended hot streak because National League pitchers didn’t know how to get him out. He’ll almost surely cool off a bit, but everything in his portfolio suggests this production can be sustainable throughout the season.
After missing all of 2025 in the Majors, Grissom might be realizing the potential that made him a top-3 prospect for Atlanta back in the day. Still only 25, he’s now batting third or fourth consistently and appears to have an everyday role, starting their last nine games. So far this season, his K-rate is just 10.7%—and he’s taking nearly as many walks. While he won’t steal many bases and will likely struggle to get to double-digit home runs, he’s already got ten doubles in just 129 AB’s.
Grissom’s profile is extremely tilted against categories leagues—he doesn’t get a lot of counting stats, very few homers and steals, and his average isn’t that great either. But in points, his nearly-1:1 K:BB rate and XBH ratio make him more than usable, and this might not be his ceiling.
Mateo might be playing his way into an everyday role in Atlanta, playing in his sixth straight game as of Tuesday. Supplanting the struggling Ha-Seong Kim, Mateo’s hitting over .300 on the season and has 100th-percentile Sprint Speed. Atlanta even started him at DH over the weekend, prioritizing his bat over any other on their bench.
At age 30 and not exactly known for his hitting prowess in years past (he hit .177 last year and struck out 36% of the time), Mateo has seemingly found the special sauce in Atlanta. He’s hitting the ball more than five mph harder on average than last season in Baltimore, and his OBP has climbed 132 points to a respectable .349.
The question is, can you trust this resurgence? Do you believe in this year’s 12.5% Barrel rate when his historic average is 5.7%? Or a .519 xSLG, where his career rate is .365? Probably not, but he’s getting chances in perhaps the league’s most solid lineup and should be productive even as regression kicks in. Mateo had a handful of extended hot streaks in Baltimore before coming back to earth, but the speed will always be there. And while steals don’t help you much in a points league, they don’t hurt.
Brown moved into the rotation on May 8 before being fully stretched out, and pitched just four innings in each of his first two starts. His third outing went five innings, and then he earned his first Quality Start of the season with a seven-K gem against the Pirates on May 25.
His last outing was by far the best of his season, though, staying efficient through seven IP versus the Cardinals. He allowed just four baserunners and now has a 26:6 K:BB ratio over his last four appearances, keeping his WHIP below 1.0 in that span.
We’ve talked in previous articles about how young pitchers succeed when they change their approach against right-handed batters versus lefties. Brown’s taking that to the extreme with his sinker, which he throws just three percent of the time against lefties but 41% against RHBs. By contrast, he throws fastballs just 20% of the time to righties, but over 50% of the time to lefties. As long as he stays in the rotation without an innings cap, Brown can be a top-40 starter.
Fallers
Nimmo’s been a reliable performer for much of the year, but lately has hit a rough patch. Banged up a handful of times and assigned the dreaded DTD status, Nimmo has yet to go to the IL this season, but maybe could use a day off or two. Over his last five games, Nimmo’s K’ed ten times, including a golden sombrero yesterday in St. Louis. He’s got a .148 average over his last seven games and just a .259 SLG.
Nimmo led off every game for Texas until May 11, and then dropped to third in the order and has been there ever since. This was around when Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager got injured—and both should be back from the IL soon—so it remains to be seen how that will scramble the lineup. Maybe Josh Jung moves down from the two-hole and Joc Pederson stops leading off in his platoon role, but Nimmo could also be bumped down if he keeps striking out more than a third of the time.
Ray has famously been up and down in his career, which includes both a Cy Young award in one season and an ERA over 6 in another. The main key to his success is his command, as his walk rate is typically deterministic of his overall results. But historically, that’s assuming that Ray’s an elite source of strikeouts—and this year, that’s not the case.
Ray’s K-rate this year is 21.9%, which is in the 48th percentile. For reference, last year it was 24.6% and his career average is 28.5%. The Whiff rate on several of his pitches has also dropped significantly. Hitters are missing his fastball when swinging just 18.2% of the time this season, compared to 26.4% in 2024. And they’re missing his slider 34.7% of the time in 2026 versus 45.8% two seasons ago. Both pitches have reduced velocity as well.
To succeed at age 34, without having the putaway pitches he used to, Ray is going to have to adopt more of a pitch-to-contact profile. The problem is, he might not have the command and control to do that, especially if his walk rate hovers at 11.5%. If anything his advanced metrics suggest his 1.40 WHIP and 4.45 ERA are better than they should be.
