The MLB Draft is a crap shoot. While more times than not, the most talented players are taken in the 1st round, talent alone doesn’t mean they will go on to have the best career. I believe in this draft specifically it was the smallest gap from player 1 to player 50, and MLB team’s draft strategies showed that.
Teams seemingly put a premium on up the middle defense and athleticism because it was the “safe route.” That draft strategy caused players with extremely high ceilings to fall down the board, sometimes even outside the top 50. If you are going to dominate your dynasty league, identifying top prospects outside the 1st round is the best way to build an elite farm system. Let’s identify some names that could fit that bill.
Post 1st Round Sleepers
Luke Stevenson, Seattle Mariners
Stevenson came into the season in the conversation for a top 10 selection. A below average season in the average department, and an increase in swing and miss, caused him to fall outside of the 1st round, but the talent is still there.
As a draft eligible Sophomore, Stevenson is still technically young for a college draft prospect. While many of the top college prospects had a 3rd year to mature physically and mentally, Stevenson did not. On top of only two developmental years, he also handled and extremely high workload. Out of the 125 UNC games over the last 2 seasons, Stevenson caught 122 of them. That kind of workload doesn’t only take a toll physically, but mentally, having to be dialed in for every single moment of every game.
The tools that made Stevenson so highly regarded coming into the season, still showed up this Spring. While he may have only hit .251, he backed it up with 19 home runs and 10 doubles. He also still showcased a mature approach with 59 walks in 61 games, carrying a .414 OBP.
When looking at the three most important traits I use to evaluate a hitter, he graded out well above average in two of the three categories. Those categories are chase rate and exit velocity, while his contact rates were below average. On the season, he averaged 96.5 mph exit velocity, which is tops out of the college position players selected in the 1st round, and only chased at 15.7% of pitches out of the strike zone. The contact rate was concerning at 72.7%, but that number is actually better than the .251 avg with 70 strikeouts in 61 games would suggest. A potentially elite defensive who showcases plus power and an advanced approach? Sign me up!
Brendan Summerhill, Tampa Bay Rays
The complete opposite of Stevenson, Summerhill felt like one of the safer picks in the draft. He was widely regarded as a top 15 prospect, but as the draft unfolded he ended up slidding to the Rays at 42nd overall.
Summerhill’s best attribute is his bat to ball skills, and there is an argument for it to be the best in the class. In 3 college seasons, he batted .323 with more walks than strikeouts. The major concern around Summerhill was how the power would develop this year, and this season was more of the same. While the power output early in the season was improved, Summerhill battled injuries and inconsistencies that zapped most of his thump through the 2nd half. That didn’t necessarily lead to his fall on draft day, but combine that with little defensive value, and you can see why the industry went with so many prep middle infielders in round 1.
Summerhill’s marriage with the Rays is not one that I believe will transform him as an offensive asset. Unlike other orgs, the Rays seemingly identify what a player does well and maximize that, instead of overhauling the operation. So I do not see a big power transformation on the horizon, but I do believe the Rays will allow him to be a highly productive contact first hitter who hits for a high average, and steals some bases. Any chance to get a top 15 type talent outside the 1st round is one that should be pounced on.
Devin Taylor, Oakland Athletics
As the draft unfolded, and teams were seemingly prioritizing defensive value, Taylor was one of the players caught in limbo as he slid to 48th overall. While that isn’t far off from the consensus industry ranking, Taylor is a player that I think will outperform his draft slot.
In 3 years at Indiana, Taylor was consistently one of the best hitters in the country. He finished his career with a combined .350/.459/.672 slash line with 54 home runs and 37 doubles. Taylor also consistently got better each an every year improving his average from .315 to .357 to .374, while also flirting with 20 home runs and decreasing his strikeout totals every season. Performance wise, Taylor was one of the most successful college hitters, which makes the 48th selection, and lack of top 15 buzz even more fascinating.
You might think to yourself, well he must have bad data if a player that productive was not in the conversation for top 10, right? Nope. Taylor is the closest prospect in this class to what the top of the 2024 draft class featured on the data side. He made contact with 81.6% of the pitches he swung at, while only chasing at 17.2%. Combine that advanced approach with a 93.9 mph exit velocity, and a 32.5% barrel rate, and he checks all the necessary boxes. In a class that featured underwhelming college position players, Taylor should have been selected higher, and in the conversation for top 10. But he wasn’t, and as a dynasty owner that creates an opportunity to identify a prospect others might not be looking at.
Ethan Petry, Washington Nationals
I was at the game where Petry hit a home run off Paul Skenes on April 6th, 2023. If you would have told me on that day Petry would be selected outside of the 1st round, I would have told you that you were nuts. Well here we are 2 years later having that conversation, and quite frankly it’s mostly because of Petry’s on field performance.
After being names Freshman of the Year while hitting 23 home runs, and batting .376 in 2023, it was all downhill from there for Petry. His South Carolina team was not very good, and I think one of the hardest things to do in baseball is playing on an uncompetitive team, but Petry also struggled. While the surface level numbers in 2024 look good as he hit .306 with 21 home runs, he also struck out 73 times in 61 games.
This Spring was a refreshing shift for Petry. The power took a large step backward as he lowered his slugging percentage to .590, but he showcased the best contact rates and approach of his career. In limited time before injury cut his season short, he only struck out 33 times in 44 games. The contact rates showed that improvement as he raised his contact% from 64.9% in 2024 to 73% in 2025. That improvement also came with an increase in exit velocity from 91.9 mph to 94.4.
The power is not the question for Petry. Even if the output wasn’t up to his standard, it is still there. The offseason swing changes he made that led to the increase in contact rate can play huge dividends in the long term. My main concern about Petry moving forward is being paired with the Nationals development. They have not shown the ability to develop a player of Petry’s type, but maybe the new regime will bring a welcome change.
Ben Abeldt, Texas Rangers
Abeldt was written in pen as the Friday night starter for TCU coming into the season. Through 2 seasons he had been a dominant reliever, and there was a ton of excitement in Fort Worth about his potential as a starter. An elbow injury one week before the season ended that possibility, but the talent is still there.
I have friends at TCU, and the conversation through the preseason was that Abeldt was looking like a dominant ace potential arm. This is the same source that told me Payton Tolle had the potential to be a top of the rotation big league starter, so his word can be trusted. The opportunity to get that talent at pick 146 should not be overlooked.
In 2 years as a reliever, Abeldt showcased dominant stuff with impressive strike throwing abilities. In 99.1 IP, he struck out 125 hitters while walking only 40 batters. He throws from a funky low left handed slot, and the fastball usually sat between 91-94 flashing up to 96. In 2 seasons, the pitch generated a 27.3% whiff rate. Abeldt also features a slider that was dominant generating a 36.8% whiff rate. He came into this spring with improvements on both the fastball and slider, and the change up was continuing to trend up. If Abeldt returns to form, he has the potential to rise up prospect rankings fast, and it seems like the Rangers got a potential steal in the 5th round.
Photo by Jeffrey Brown | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@TheCarbonFox on Twitter/X)
