Projecting a breakout or bust is one of the more difficult things to do as a fantasy analyst. No matter how many data points or trends go for or against a player, things can change at the end of the day. It’s important to remember that these prospects are generally 18 to 22-year-old kids who are still developing physically, adjusting to the game mentally, and working hard every day to improve. Projecting these hard-working players to ‘bust’ or fail is also tricky. For the sake of this article, the focus is more on a player who is being overvalued as a prospect and keeping the ‘hype trains’ on the rails by lowering expectations.
Brady House, 3B, WSH
For the better part of 2023, Brady House sat inside my Top 75 prospects and was borderline Top 50 entering last season. House was coming off an outstanding 2023, slashing .312/.365/.497 with 12 homers, 21 doubles, and a 137 wRC+ playing across three levels as a 20-year-old. His ability to tap into power and drive the ball to all fields was encouraging and offered enough upside to overlook some of the warts in his game. Among them were a BABIP-driven OBP (.388 BABIP) and an underwhelming strikeout rate, the latter fueled by a suboptimal plate approach and lack of discipline at the dish.
His plate approach, which had been quite aggressive since his debut, showed an overall swing rate of over 50% in just over 1000 career at-bats. Last season, House had an overall swing rate of 55.6% and a chase rate approaching 40%, leading to a career-worst 26.4% strikeout rate. Even more concerning is a near-80% in-zone swing rate. We can stand behind a little extra aggression at the dish, but only if you have the contact skills to support it and House does not. House has never posted an overall contact rate higher than 73%, including a 71% rate last season with just 86% in-zone. The aggression has limited his walk rates to well under 7% for his career and resulted in a .297 OBP in 2024 once the BABIP stabilized (.298). With poor contact skills comes poor strikeout rates. The 21-year-old has a career rate of 28.3%, and outside of brief stints in the Complex and Class-A, House has never sustained a strikeout rate under 20%. That’s red flag number one in the profile.
While House had shown flashes of pop in his bat, there are concerns with his batted ball profile. First and foremost, House has difficulty lifting the ball. His flyball rate in 2024 was 31.3%, with a groundball rate approaching 50%. This is nothing new for the 21-year-old, as his full-season groundball rates have hovered north of 45% for the duration of his career. His batted-ball data is also worrisome. While his 90th percentile EV was 104 mph last season, he averaged just 87.4 mph with a 3.8% barrel rate and 40% hard-hit rate, well below the MLB average. Couple that with a launch angle of around 7%, and we’re looking at a player with some apparent flaws in the profile.
Many analysts have House firmly inside their Top 50 based on proximity and perceived value in an organization with limited depth at the MLB level. Despite the struggles, his stock holds value as the Nationals have quickly promoted him through the ranks. But please take a step back and look at his profile. House is a flawed hitter who will continue to be exposed at the upper levels. With his combination of aggression at the plate, fringe contact skills, and underwhelming quality of contact, House feels like a guy who will continue to struggle in 2025 and should fall in the rankings.
Hurston Waldrep, SP, ATL
Waldrep has been on a meteoric rise since his collegiate days at Southern Miss. The right-hander initially worked in the bullpen at USM but was thrust into a prominent role in the Gators’ rotation after his transfer to Florida. Waldrep thrived in his new role, winning ten games during his final season with the Gators. His rise continued when he was selected with the 24th overall pick in the 2023 draft and then made his MLB debut less than 12 months later. Waldrep’s MLB debut was brief. He logged a 16.71 ERA in two starts with the Braves before being shut down with elbow inflammation. After a month’s layoff, he finished his season at Triple-A, posting a 3.17 ERA in his last seven starts. Waldrep has 122 2/3 innings in the minors with a 3.01 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, a near-26% strikeout rate, and a walk-rate of over 11%. His splitter is genuinely an elite offering, producing a near-25% swinging strike rate last season with a chase rate well over 30%. Beyond that single shining star is a lot of meh.
Coming into the draft, the consensus on Waldrep was two things: how is the command, and what is his third pitch? After a year and a half, neither question has a suitable answer. Waldrep, who had an 11% walk rate in college, has continued that trend. In 2024, he walked 11% of the hitters he faced in the minors and 22% in his small MLB sample. The overall strike rate hovers near 60%, far lower than average, and has yielded over 4.5 walks per nine. Many will point out that his best pitch is a splitter, and we all know you can’t throw a splitter for strikes. But even his fastball hasn’t found the zone often (61% strike rate).
Developing a third offering has also been problematic for Waldrep, and honestly, his second pitch isn’t great either. Let’s start with his four-seam fastball, which I consider his second offering. Beyond averaging over 95 mph with it, the pitch has no enduring characteristics in movement or results. It averages just under 14 inches of iVB and around 4 inches of run. On nearly 300 measurable pitches last season (Triple-A/MLB), it generated a swinging strike rate below 5% with a sub-14% whiff rate. That isn’t very good. On to the third offering. Waldrep has dabbled with a curve and a slider, but neither is consistent or reliable. Much like the fastball, the slider has nothing to like about it. The pitch is relatively flat, offering one inch of iVB and less than four inches of movement. If it provides one distinguishing factor, it’s the velocity band, which sits in the mid-80s, similar to his splitter.
I’d love to see continued growth and development from Waldrep, especially with command of his arsenal. His splitter is a plus offering and could be one of the best in the game, but you never want to see a splitter as the primary piece of a repertoire. The fastball and slider are well below average, and if Waldrep is also not throwing enough strikes, it will lessen the split’s effectiveness. There are mixed views on Waldrep and his long-term outlook, but the more I dig in, the more I worry about his status as a top prospect. I think Waldrep takes a big step back in 2025 and becomes a mid-tier guy by the end of the season.
Writers Note Waldrep was optioned to Triple-A very early in Spring Training, indicating the Braves feel he has plenty to work on as well.
Termarr Johnson, 2B, PIT
The 2022 draft class was headlined by a trio of ‘can’t miss’ prep bats: Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones, and Termarr Johnson. Johnson ended up as the fourth pick in the first round, landing with the Pirates. In two seasons in the minors, Johnson has a career slash line of .239/.390/.406 with 34 homers, 37 doubles, and 38 steals. Some say Johnson has already busted based on his expectations compared to his performance. However, many outlets still consider Johnson a Top 100 or higher prospect, but his stock has dropped significantly for me.
According to MLBPipeline’s pre-draft scouting report, Johnson had the “draft’s best hit tool,” was “the best prep hitter in decades,” and was awarded an elusive 70-grade rating for his bat. In addition, Johnson had a 60 grade on his power, giving him two tools above 60. Let’s start with the hit tool. While batting average isn’t everything, the statistic itself says a lot. Johnson is a career .239 hitter in the minors, which is particularly poor considering he has had just 48 at-bats above Double-A. Johnson has amassed at least 116 strikeouts in each of his two seasons and has yet to post an overall contact rate above 70%. If the profile has a silver lining, he has produced consecutive seasons with at least 85 walks, and he’s not compounding his contact issues by chasing outside the zone.
Of all the pre-draft assessments, Johnson has delivered on power. Despite standing 5’7″ and 175 lbs, Johnson has mashed 15+ home runs in his first two seasons. His average and 90th percentile exit velocities have been above league average, and Johnson is capitalizing when he can hit the ball in the air. It’s within his range of outcomes to reach 20-25 homers annually. But, with the batting average woes, he’s more Brandon Lowe than Jose Altuve. It’s safe to say that power is Johnson’s only present tool in fantasy.
Termarr Johnson is just 20 years old, so there’s still time to ‘recapture’ the pre-draft magic. I don’t value him as a Top 100 prospect, but never say never. Based on what we’ve seen, a 70-grade hit tool is definitely out of the question and should be erased from our memory. If Johnson can get to a bit more contact in the next few seasons, even grading out around 45-50, we could still see a potential All-Star caliber player with the presence of his power.
