Speaking plainly, arsenal reorganization is the easiest thing to suggest when it comes to finding a fix for underperforming pitchers. I’ve certainly brought it up several times when discussing changes a pitcher should make. While it’s often true that a pitcher may throw too many fastballs and should work in their secondaries more, that’s not always enough. And what do you do when the stuff is good but it isn’t drawing whiffs or performing even in sheltered usage? Ryne Nelson has a somewhat unique and frustrating problem. He has a strong if slightly generic arsenal of pitches that should be missing bats. Instead, he’s near the bottom of the league in whiff and K rates. Let’s dive into what he offers so we can tackle the issue later with full context.
The Stuff
Nelson’s fastball isn’t the most interesting, but it’s a solid pitch. He throws it hard with above-average vertical movement from a slightly high but otherwise generic release. It’s a factory-default 55-grade fastball. There’s nothing too unique about it, it’s just good.
His cutter is a weak contact inducer that also serves as a bridge pitch between his fastball and his slider, falling almost perfectly between them on movement charts. He doesn’t use it in this way, yet it’s one of his more effective pitches. I’ve stated previously that this type of cutter relies more on its arsenal context than it does its individual shape in a vacuum. I believe this to be true in Nelson’s case as well. While this pitch theoretically doesn’t have the depth or horizontal movement you’d want from a contact managing cutter, it can perform this way due to his execution of it and how it fits with his other pitches.
His changeup relies largely on its velocity and horizontal separation from the fastball to perform. While I generally prefer vertical movement separation above all other traits for a changeup, having two of the primary four that I look for is usually enough regardless of which ones they are. The fourth is similar spin directions which can lead to increased deception, which Nelson’s doesn’t have. I’m probably being too harsh on the vertical separation front, he does manage 8.1” of iVB separation. Let’s say two and a half of the four main traits then. Of course, there’s more to it than that, but those are good basic indicators and things to look for. It’s a good off-speed pitch.
Nelson’s revamped slider has a lot going for it. Mid-80s velocity is solid for this kind of pitch and it flaunts excellent depth with tight horizontal movement. It should be an effective breaking ball for him.
His curveball isn’t much more than a change-of-pace called strike curveball. It lacks velocity and good movement. That doesn’t mean there’s no place for it though, throwing in an occasional curve like this can be surprisingly beneficial. It should be used in limited amounts, throwing it too often will get it crushed. That said, if he can work it in when a hitter isn’t expecting it, he can get a few free strikes or some weak contact.
Nelson abandoned his sweeper in May and I’m not sure why. He’s had it for his entire MLB career. It’s a fine breaking ball and I truly just don’t get what the point of scrapping it was. It doesn’t seem to have been affecting his ability to spin his fastball. It’s been largely replaced in its role by his harder slider, but this pitch was probably better suited for it. Against same-handed hitters, horizontal movement is your friend. You want that pitch that runs away from their barrels and out of the zone. I like his new slider but I just don’t understand this usage change at all.
The Problem
Now, after reading about what he can throw, I have a statistic for you. Nelson’s fastball has a 20.2% whiff rate. This is slightly below the league average. It is, however, the highest whiff rate of any of Nelson’s pitches this season. Yes, his fastball is leading the way, and all of his secondaries are scuffling below 20%. That is astounding. Stuff this good should under no circumstance be performing like this — especially not in limited usage. Given that hitters can generally sit fastball against him until they get one, you would think a slider or changeup would catch them off guard. This is what usually happens with pitchers who throw too many fastballs. Nelson, somehow, has the inverse. Hitters may know he has a wide arsenal of pitches behind his fastball but it seems unlikely that that’s their focus when more than half of what he throws is the heater.
This is why it’s about more than just throwing less fastballs. If his secondaries aren’t getting whiffs even when hitters are expecting fastballs, what happens when they get thrown more? It’s possible that better pitch variation would cause hitters to be less likely to sit on anything and shake their groove but that’s a big if. There’s a deeper problem that Nelson desperately needs to fix.
Nelson has no issues filling the zone with pitches, he’s run a well above-average rate for his entire career. He avoids walks as best he can with this strategy. The problem is that he is in turn throwing too many pitches in bad locations, rendering them hittable. His arsenal is not built for weak contact, he’s not a funky sinker-sweeper guy, he’s a straightforward pronator. When his pitches are in the wheelhouse, bad things are going to happen. I can give him credit for locating one of his pitches well. His cutter is frequently off the zone on the glove side, which is exactly where it should be when he’s not using it to bridge. Given that it’s his only secondary above 10.1% usage, that’s where we’re at.
Everything else needs work. He is far too aggressive with his fastball, even beyond the usage rate. He seems to just aim down the middle, maybe a bit higher sometimes, and hope for the best. His stuff is good but it’s not that good. The execution has to be better than that. This pitch needs to live higher and above the zone. I do not care if his walk rate bloats from a less in-your-face approach, walks are less bad than hits. His strikeout rate would almost certainly improve with this.
His changeup isn’t close to the zone consistently enough to get whiffs. I appreciate that he’s not throwing too many of them in the zone but they have to be close enough to be enticing or deceptive. His slider has enough depth that it can survive some contact when he’s keeping it down in the zone, but I wish he’d fish for chases with it more often. He’s been throwing it on the glove-side corner and I’d like to push those a bit lower or further outside. Better yet, bringing back the sweeper for that purpose if the slider in the zone is a way for him to manage contact. He’s running reverse splits this season because righties are making a lot of contact against him. Again, removing a pitch with a lot of glove-side movement designed for same-handed hitters as a north-south pitcher makes no sense to me.
The Outlook
I do not trust Nelson as a pitcher right now. I don’t agree with his process or plan of attack. At the same time, I think he possesses undeniable talents that just need to be unlocked and optimized. This probably isn’t an overnight fix. The way pitchers execute their pitches takes a lot of practice, just telling him to throw his pitches in different spots on the fly has a high chance of causing new problems in place of the old ones. I’m more interested in what he looks like next season barring changes made in the next few weeks. I’ll be watching for decreased fastball usage of course, but the way he uses his secondaries is more likely to be the make-or-break improvement that can help him reach his potential. Locating them better, getting whiffs with them, anything. Pitches like this should not be filler.
Nelson has good stuff, this much seems clear. It also is not enough on its own. Something has to change. I do think that the usage changes would see some improvement, but that would just be scratching the surface of what he could be. There’s an excellent pitcher in there somewhere, I don’t think he even looks that different from Nelson’s current form. He doesn’t need a massive stuff overhaul, new magic pitch, mechanical change, or anything like that. It’s just about finding the best version of what he already has.