After trying to explain previous seasons with funny moments from The Office and then with the gravitas of The Sopranos, we now turn to a 2025 season that can be summarized by using quotes and scenes from one of the best and most important sitcoms of all time. Of course, it helps that Seinfeld used baseball to great effect, both for quick laughs and to create broader themes throughout its nine-season run.
From using Keith Hernandez to create one of the series’ best episodes, to featuring legendary cameos from Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Paul O’Neill, and Buck Showalter, baseball and Seinfeld were almost designed to be consumed together, like a black and white cookie, perhaps. With George Costanza bobbleheads becoming all the rage of stadium giveaways and both New York teams making constant headlines, it felt just natural to use some classic scenes and deeper cuts to pinpoint the state of each franchise in MLB.
So before those pretzels make you thirsty, take your time to double-dip the chip with Jerry, George, Elaine, Kramer, and their never-ending list of friends and foes. All stats are current through the All-Star break, while playoff odds are provided by Fangraphs.
AL EAST
Toronto Blue Jays – 55-41, 83.5% playoff odds
Following three seasons with decreasing win totals and a restless fan base, the Blue Jays appeared to be headed nowhere in early 2025. This included a polarizing 14-year extension given to Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., which would presumably make him the face of the franchise for all of his career. Vladito took his time to get going, with only three homers through April 30, as Toronto languished in near .500 purgatory, where they stayed all the way through a mediocre May. Since then, though, the Jays have found another gear, going 29-13 since May 28 and overtaking the Yankees for first place in the AL East. With Guerrero back to a .818 OPS and George Springer finding the fountain of youth at age 35, suddenly Toronto is looking at a solid foundation, with a lineup full of players in their prime years and a rotation headlined by three wily veterans. The only concern for Toronto is that despite having the third-best record in the AL, their run differential is only the eighth best, and they must find a way to sustain their winning ways and take advantage of a down year for the Junior Circuit.
New York Yankees – 53-43, 88.6% playoff odds
After a devastating World Series defeat and losing out on Juan Soto to the Mets, it appeared that the Yankees could somehow be short of their aura and luster. They have responded to that by being THAAA YANKEES, for good and bad. Soto’s place in the payroll was replaced by the shrewd acquisitions of Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, and Paul Goldschmidt, who have combined for 8.0 bWAR. Aaron Judge has been his usual dominant self, leading the AL in both walks and batting average, with a regular dose of power, to boot. It all helped New York to jump to a 35-20 record by late May, but that is where the drama began. An 18-2 loss to the Dodgers appeared to be a low point, but it became part of an 18-23 slide, which has included two separate six-game losing streaks. Meanwhile, almost every at-bat has become a referendum on Anthony Volpe’s ability, and the recent release of two-time batting champ DJ LeMahieu served as a reminder that the Yankees operate on a different tax bracket. Boasting the top-scoring offense in the AL and with the resources to go all-in, the team is almost a playoff lock, but success is far from guaranteed if they continue to limp towards the finish line.
Boston Red Sox – 53-45, 56.1% playoff odds
I have simply stopped trying to make sense of the Red Sox, as most sensible baseball analysis appears to be foreign to their situation. Despite being one of the richest teams in the league, they continue to approach roster building with a Costanza-like level of chaos. After debuting a Netflix documentary that covered their 2024 season with plenty of access, their latest bout with disarray came in the form of alienating their erstwhile franchise player, as Rafael Devers was ostracized from third base and then shipped to San Francisco as part of a shocking trade. This move came on the heels of a six-game winning streak that included a sweep of the rival Yankees, which was almost immediately followed by a six-game losing streak that appeared to kick the Sox out of playoff contention. In true Boston fashion, though, the team has responded with 10 straight wins to close the first half, as Garrett Crochet has emerged as a Cy Young candidate and the likes of Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu have more than made up for the Devers-sized hole in the batting order. The increased playoff odds are providing hope for the team’s first October appearance since 2021, but karma remains mostly undefeated, and Boston should be well aware of this.
Tampa Bay Rays – 50-47, 36.5% playoff odds
You gotta hand it to the Rays, as they are almost the bizarro Red Sox – stubborn to a fault. Despite facing the tough task of playing the whole season in a minor-league stadium, Tampa stuck to their guns of running a dirt-poor payroll and trying to compete with the big boys despite that limitation. In many ways, it has worked, with Junior Caminero showing flashes of his superstar potential at age 21, the rotation holding up to make 96 out of 97 starts, and Jonathan Aranda coming out of nowhere to make the All-Star team. After peaking at 47-36, the team’s lack of depth has started to show, highlighting the flaws of Tampa’s yearly plan. Losing six out of seven to close the first half took the Rays out of a better-than-50% chance of returning to the playoffs, but we know they will likely continue on their same path, with nearly every player on their roster available around the trade deadline, but with the franchise never bottoming out. Winning or losing is not the point for the Rays, as long as they do it on a budget. Morty Seinfeld would be proud (unless the reported new ownership group finally decides to spend some money).
Baltimore Orioles – 43-52, 3.0% playoff odds
The Orioles were supposed to be the ultimate success in terms of rebuilding from within. They went from 110 losses in 2021 to a winning season in 2022, and then two straight playoff appearances that included a division title. Going winless in October was seen as a blip and a fluke, as certainly Baltimore had the perfect young core to eventually break through. However, the front office’s inaction this offseason was the first warning sign, especially as they failed to put together a promising staff that would complement the shiny lineup. When said lineup did not produce at their usual level, it all went south quickly. A 15-28 start all but eliminated the Orioles as contenders and led to the firing of manager Brandon Hyde, and while interim skipper Tony Mansolino has righted the ship to a degree, 2025 has become a lost season for the O’s. The good news for Baltimore is that they get to keep their youth for the foreseeable future, with the hope of a quick bounce-back season next year – especially if ownership commits to building a staff that can produce better results than a 4.92 ERA that has led to 20 losses of at least five runs.
AL CENTRAL
Detroit Tigers – 59-38, 98.9% playoff odds
This time last season, the Tigers were an afterthought. As part of their multi-year rebuild, Detroit had failed to make much noise, with the Javier Baez albatross contract serving as the perfect symbol for a failed era in Motor City baseball. On August 2, 2024 Detroit fell to 52-59 with minuscule playoff odds, only to rally for an improbable October run that ended in an exciting ALDS loss to Cleveland. The 34-17 finish to 2024 has carried over to 2025 with an even better squad, as Detroit has run the table almost from the get-go. Tarik Skubal continues to make his case as the best pitcher alive, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Spencer Torkelson have emerged as legit power hitters, and even Baez has been rejuvenated, making the All-Star game as a center fielder (!!!). This run has made the Tigers a delight for neutral fans, as their underdog identity and modest payroll make them really easy to root for. With the largest divisional lead in baseball, they are almost certain to face a big, bad foe in the playoffs, where Detroit would become the sentimental favorite for the nation.
Minnesota Twins – 47-49, 24.2% playoff odds
A year after the AL Central was more competitive than usual, causing the Twins to miss out on the playoffs, Minnesota entered 2025 as the most talented team on paper. The usual caveat of health applied, but there was plenty of hope around the Twin Cities. The problem with hope is that it can lead to disappointment, and it is where the 2025 Twins have fallen into. Minnesota has been carried by two true superstar turns, as Byron Buxton (.925 OPS, 4.1 bWAR) has showed what he can do when healthy, and Joe Ryan (9-4, 4.0 bWAR) has emerged as the AL’s most underrated ace. Alas, the rest of the roster has been injured and/or ineffective, with Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Pablo Lopez missing significant time, while most role players have failed to make a mark. Also, Minnesota’s record is a tad misleading, as it was fueled by an MLB-best 13-game winning streak in mid-May. Outside of that, they have been a mediocre team with limited upside. Maybe they should try the indifference route next season, hoping that hopelessness propels them back to the postseason.
Kansas City Royals – 47-50, 11.6% playoff odds
Following an average of 62 wins over five full seasons, the Royals became a sensation in 2024, climbing to 86 victories and their first playoff appearance in a decade, which ended 0n a close ALDS loss to the Yankees. That was supposed to be a building block for Kansas City, especially after locking up Bobby Witt, Jr. for the long haul and bringing back most of their core for 2025. Alas, things have become all too familiar around Kauffman Stadium, as the Royals have regressed to their usual level of mediocrity and anonymity. Witt has been his usual star self and Kris Bubic came out of nowhere to post a 2.48 ERA, but the lineup has just too many holes to stay afloat. The Royals are dead last in the AL in runs and homers, with Salvador Perez finally showing his age and phenom Jac Caglianone failing to translate his prodigious power to the majors. The second-best staff in terms of ERA may go to waste, even with the prolonged absence of ace Cole Ragans, but failing to maximize their roster is almost par for the course for the Royals organization.
Cleveland Guardians – 46-49, 10.3% playoff odds
In 2024, the year of the AL Central’s improbable rise, Cleveland stood out among its peers, with 92 wins to win the division. With an elite bullpen and plenty of one-run wins, the Guardians rode that momentum all the way to the ALCS, where they took the Yankees to the brink and probably deserved a better fate than a five-game exit. Nevertheless, the Guardians appeared to be on the brink of another sustained run of success, reminiscent of what they had from 2016 to 2020. Instead, the traditionally cheap ownership chose to weaken their roster, trading away two key role players in Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor. Reinforcements never came, and so the Guardians started the season in hard mode, placing too much of a burden on the bullpen to repeat and relying on the usual brilliance of Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan to anchor the offense. The gamble has failed so far, with Cleveland struggling to score runs and becoming a bottom-five offense. The Kwan-Ramirez duo has been excellent but unable to make up for their teammates’ feeble bats, while the bullpen has been more good than great, leading to a mediocre record and a long-shot playoff probability. Following the thrill of last year’s ALCS, it is a shame (a damn shame) that the Guardians ended up punting on 2025.
Chicago White Sox – 32-65, 0% playoff odds
After breaking the modern record for losses in a season, not much was expected from the Chicago White Sox. Outside of a modest improvement in terms of wins and the development of a few pitching prospects, 2025 has not been much different, with Chicago carrying the fifth-worst run differential in the league and plenty of uninspiring baseball. But even in that cycle of terribleness, Chicago has made first base a true black hole. Before being traded to Milwaukee, former first-round pick Andrew Vaughn produced a true horror show at the position, with a -1.8 bWAR in only 193 plate appearances, with a dumbfounding .531 OPS. His replacements have not been much better, and now the White Sox are dead last in OPS from the traditional power position, including only seven homers and 27 RBI. The Sox certainly have bigger problems to face in their multi-year rebuild, but finding a stable first baseman should already be on their to-do list.
AL WEST
Houston Astros – 56-40, 93.9% playoff odds
When general manager Dana Brown took over before the 2023 season, he inherited an aging core that appeared to be putting up finishing touches on Houston’s golden age. That became more evident in 2024, when the Astros failed to make the ALCS for the first time since 2016. The departure of key franchise players like Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman portended a transition year for this franchise, but little did we know that they would end up becoming footnotes on the GM’s masterclass in team building. In acquiring Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith for Tucker and providing more trust for youngsters like Yainer Diaz and Jeremy Peña, Brown proved that he could assemble a good team despite losing superstars, and now the Astros are almost a lock to win their eighth straight full-season division title. Jose Altuve may have failed in trying to learn left field in his mid-thirties, but he remains the team spiritual leader and a productive hitter, while Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown should become a headache for any offense they face in October. By the way, they have done this despite several injuries, especially to star DH Yordan Alvarez (limited to 3 homers in 100 plate appearances). So much for a roster in flux.
Seattle Mariners – 51-45, 71.2% playoff odds
There was plenty of temptation to use a certain reference related to Cal Raleigh’s epic nickname, but this is a family website, after all. Instead, the Mariners remind me a lot of the concept of serenity now (or SERENITY NOW!) in how they have approached their past few seasons. Despite being led by a man famous for his proclivities to trade, it seems as if the M’s have been too cautious in their approach towards team-building, focusing on their strong pitching and a lineup that would make scoring somewhat of a chore. However, this year’s version of Seattle has proven they can slug it out with the big boys, becoming a top-10 scoring offense and having the third-most homers in the AL. This includes Raleigh’s MLB-leading 38, but also double-digit totals from four other players. One of them was the recently-waived Rowdy Tellez, who became the first casualty in what should become an aggressive approach for the front office, especially if they want to add more talent to a solid base. While Houston is running away with the division, the Mariners have the inside track towards a wild-card spot, where they have the talent and hunger to become really dangerous, especially in a wide-open year for the AL.
Texas Rangers – 48-49, 18.1% playoff odds
After winning the franchise’s first championship in 2023, the Texas Rangers regressed badly in 2024, finishing with a mediocre 78-84 record as most of their offensive performers went cold at the same time. With a more promising outlook towards 2025, one that presumably included a healthy Jacob deGrom and year two of Wyatt Langford’s development, the Rangers were pegged to contend for a division title. Instead, many of the pitfalls that plagued the 2024 team have come back to bite them, as several heroes from 2023 continue to flail. Even as Nathan Eovaldi is dominating with a 1.58 ERA and deGrom has returned to his prominent spot among the sport’s elite (9-2 with a 2.32 ERA), the Rangers are almost in the same spot in offensive rankings as they were in their tough 2024, with a .676 team OPS. Corey Seager remains a force when healthy, Langford has taken a step forward, and Marcus Semien has rebounded after a terrible start, but their contributions have not been enough to overcome the decline of Adolis Garcia (.279 OBP) or whatever happened to Joc Pederson (2 homers in 146 PA). With dwindling playoff odds and a tough second-half schedule, Texas will have to make a deep introspection and figure out how to make better use of their resources, especially as the Astros and Mariners are well positioned to contend for the foreseeable future.
Los Angeles Angels – 47-49, 3.9% playoff odds
The Angels won’t make the playoffs, but we should at least give them credit for playing competitive baseball in a season that started with zero expectations. Even with an abysmal -62 run differential that suggests they should be a few wins worse, the Angels have managed to stay afloat and flirt with .500 for most of 2025. The record could be labeled as misleading, with the Halos benefiting from a 7-0 mark against the A’s, or due to an 18-11 record in one-run games, but it is undeniable that it should be considered progress for a franchise that has not won 80 games since 2018. In true Angels fashion, they have achieved this despite the announced season-long absence of their manager (get well soon, Wash), the yearly tradition of a Mike Trout injury (limited to 70 games), and having a very bizarre team statistical profile. On offense, the Angels rank fifth in homers (good!) but 24th in OBP (terrible!), balancing out as the 15th-best in terms of run scored. Pitching-wise, LA ranks as the sixth-worst staff in ERA, but their bullpen is top-10 in clutch index, which could explain some of the close wins they continue to pull out. The Angels have not had a losing streak of more than three games since late May, and they simply look more focused than their previous iterations – the challenge for the front office will be to figure out if this year is a fluke or a true building block towards a more promising future.
Oakland Athletics – 41-57, 0.1% playoff odds
The nomad A’s were supposed to embrace the whole Sacramento experiment, which included playing three seasons in a quirky minor-league stadium while they built up their young roster. Dreams of a fun marriage in California’s capital were squashed almost from the get-go, as the A’s lost their home opener with an 18-3 score against the Cubs, which turned into an omen of what was to come. The A’s have posted the second-worst home record in the majors, being outscored by 78 runs as it has become clear that their pitchers have failed to adapt to the unique conditions. Luis Severino, who signed a significant free-agent contract to become the team’s veteran leader, publicly criticized the stadium situation, in a clear cry for help – he has gone 0-9 with a 6.68 ERA in Sacramento. The problem is that the A’s have not fared much better on the road, and most of their young core has had uneven seasons. The quick rise of rookies Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz has been a welcome development, and Brent Rooker has become a bona fide slugger, but the lack of reliable pitching along with the team’s fishy ownership group probably mean that the A’s will be nothing more than a filler team for the next few seasons. When you can’t even do a proper ground-breaking ceremony, you know something is clearly wrong.
NL EAST
Philadelphia Phillies – 55-41, 91.9% playoff odds
For a long stretch, the Phillies were known as a power-first team that employed hulking sluggers as their primary force. Even then, it was clear that the team’s foundation was actually its pitching, while the offense carried most of the headlines. As those same sluggers have declined in 2025, the team’s rotation has finally taken the spotlight, becoming the franchise’s true hope of finally breaking through in the playoffs. With Philadelphia’s offense languishing around league average in homers and OPS (only Kyle Schwarber has hit more than 30 and an OPS above .850), a formidable rotation trio has carried the Phils to a slim division lead to close the first half. Zack Wheeler continues to make a case for his first Cy Young award (leading the NL in WAR, WHIP, and strikeouts), and he has found two equally-impressive cohorts in Cristopher Sanchez (8-2 with a 2.50 ERA) and Ranger Suarez (7-3 with a 2.15 ERA), as Philadelphia is the only squad with three pitchers having that kind of stat line. The hope of adding the currently injured Aaron Nola and having a competent #4 in Jesus Luzardo gives this team the deepest rotation in the NL, albeit with a clear need of bullpen help and offensive additions.
New York Mets – 55-42, 85.4% playoff odds
When the Mets signed Juan Soto to an eye-popping 15-year, $765 million contract, it signaled many things. First of all, the franchise in Queens was ready to match whatever their foes in the Bronx could do, leaving aside any long-term consequences of having such an albatross contract. It also meant that the Mets would be shameless in their attempt to buy their way to a championship, without even needing the help of cute fast-food mascots or latin pop singers. Not that there’s anything wrong with that in a sport with no salary cap, but it is also clear that the Mets still have a long way to go before being considered a favorite to win the whole thing. A 45-24 start despite tepid numbers from Soto appeared to validate their team-building philosophy, but it was quickly followed by a brutal 3-14 stretch that featured a humbling three-game sweep by the lowly Pirates. Soto has righted the ship and has been arguably the NL’s best hitter since June, while Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo are excellent complements, but POBO David Stearns will have plenty of pressure to add premium talent at the deadline. With deep pockets to take on any contract and minor-league resources to trade, New York must take advantage of their noveau-riche status and buy as many lottery tickets as they can.
Miami Marlins – 44-51, 0.2% playoff odds
The Marlins continue to exist and drift aimlessly around MLB, and anyone who claims to know what they are doing is obviously a liar. The team’s current iteration was supposed to emphasize pitching, especially as they prepared to trade former Cy Young Sandy Alcantara. Instead, Alcantara has been a disaster at the top of a lousy rotation, as Miami’s starting corps sports the third-worst ERA in the league. The bullpen has been a tad better, but arms like Ronny Enriquez look like a luxury for a team that appears to have no coherent plan. Fittingly, Miami’s offense relies on too much contact with limited power, as the Marlins are a top-10 unit in batting average but also bottom-10 in homers, leading to an offense that relies too much on sequencing to put up runs. Having said that, the Marlins have at least become a pest sometimes, as evidenced by their recent eight-game winning streak and the fact that they are above Atlanta in the standings. That’s not bad for a team that is averaging around 11,000 fans per home game.
Atlanta – 42-53, 3.3% playoff odds
It is often said that you cannot win a division in April, but you can certainly lose it. Even without hyperbole and recency bias, Atlanta has shown how that old adage holds up. A brutal opening west coast trip that included four games scoring one or zero runs saw Atlanta go 0-7 to begin the season, and they have not recovered from that. Despite the returns of Ronald Acuña, Jr. and Spencer Strider, the team has been unable to string together enough confidence and wins to come out of a season-long funk. Atlanta has yet to post a five-game winning streak in 2025, and their 13-24 mark in one-run games is indicative of how this team has failed in many instances of situational baseball. The sudden cratering of franchise players like Ozzie Albies (.606 OPS) and Michael Harris II (.234 OBP) is an obvious cause for concern, but it is also true that Atlanta should remain in contention for several years with their core. In this season from hell, almost 10 games back of the closest playoff spot, the team will be faced with playing out the string in plenty of meaningless contests, but better days are likely coming as soon as next season.
Washington Nationals – 38-58, 0% playoff odds
If the Rangers can be accused of selling their soul for a title, what can we say of the Nationals? Their 2019 World Series title was one of the most exciting and inspiring of this century, and Washington fans would probably not trade it for anything, but the franchise’s downfall from there has been utterly depressing. After topping out at 71 wins for two straight seasons, the Nats have regressed and project to be on the 60-win range for 2025. The lack of progress made ownership finally let go of GM Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, the architects of 2019’s championship – finally putting an end to that era of Washington baseball. While there are some positive takeaways and building blocks, namely James Wood, CJ Abrams, and MacKenzie Gore, the brunt of Washington’s roster and farm system is bereft of talent, and the new front office will have a tough time rebuilding with the current resources at their disposal. But hey, it is better to have loved and lost…
NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs – 57-39, 93.9% playoff odds
If you were to give an award to the most fun team in baseball, the Cubs would probably be at the top of the list. With a roster that gives flashes to their 2014-16 version, Chicago has found the perfect blend of home-grown stars, impact free agents, and savvy trades to assemble one of the most complete rosters in the league. A dynamic offense led by the delightful Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, and Carson Kelly is top 5 in runs, homers, and slugging, but also in steals and walk rate, highlighting all the ways this lineup can hurt opposing pitchers. The pitching staff has over-achieved their peripherals all the way to a top-10 ERA, but it is imperative that the front office goes big and trades for an impact starter to complement Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, as a subpar rotation may be the only thing that can hold the Cubs back from a deep playoff run. Meanwhile, continue to enjoy this Summer-of-George like atmosphere at Wrigley.
Milwaukee Brewers – 56-40, 83.0% playoff odds
Another year, another overlooked Brewers team fighting for the playoffs. For all the virtues already discussed happening in Chicago, Milwaukee is only one game back in the standings, with a real chance of winning the division. However, the Brewers have chosen another path towards contention, namely by being not flashy. Outside of former MVP Christian Yelich and maybe catcher William Contreras, the casual fan would be hard pressed to name any regular in Milwaukee’s lineup, but that has been irrelevant for a team that has simply decided to be adequate all around the diamond. Outside of standout second baseman Brice Turang, most of the Brewers attack is comprised of hitters hovering around 1.5 and 2.0 WAR, becoming greater than the proverbial sum of their parts. The Brewers are top-10 in scoring despite a pedestrian team OPS and power numbers, instead relying on speed and versatility to wreak havoc. Despite needing 12 different pitchers to make at least one start and having lost closer Devin Williams via trade, the front office has continued to defy expectations and now could feature a fearsome top of the rotation with Freddy Peralta, the return of Brandon Woodruff, and the ascent of phenom Jacob Misiorowski (All-Star controversy notwithstanding). It is simply a fact of life by this point – the Brewers are pretty much like everyone else, only successful.
St. Louis Cardinals – 51-46, 28.9% playoff odds
After a perfectly adequate yet uninspiring 83-79 season in 2024, the Cardinals were pretty much clear that they would approach 2025 without much noise, except for their desire to trade away aging star Nolan Arenado. The Arenado market never materialized, and so St. Louis went ahead as planned, making zero noteworthy transactions as they hoped that an extra year of development would be enough to see their younger players blossom. In that regard, things have gone as expected, albeit with mixed results across the board. Masyn Winn looks like a solid up-the-middle building block, Victor Scott II has rebounded after a tough debut season, and Ivan Herrera was having a nice all-around season before becoming injured. Alas, the growing pains have not left the likes of Jordan Walker, Andre Pallante, and Matthew Liberatore, creating another mediocre St. Louis team that looks far behind their NL Central rivals. Even as the playoffs are within their reach, St. Louis’ record was buoyed by a nine-game winning streak in early May that was likely a mirage. The most probable outcome will be that the front office’s inaction leads to a three-year playoff drought that matches the franchise’s forgettable 2016-18 period.
Cincinnati Reds – 50-47, 10.6% playoff odds
After highlighting the Brewers’ plan of having solid players all over the lineup, it is important to notice that the Reds have tried a similar approach. Alas, it has worked to minimal success, leading to a bunch of barely-above-replacement players hovering around 0.5 and 1.0 WAR. Outside of Elly de la Cruz and TJ Friedl, Cincinnati has seen most of their young hitters languish in 2025, leading to a middling attack that has failed to take advantage of its bandbox ballpark. Despite a solid rotation that includes Andrew Abbott (8-1, 2.07 ERA) and awaits the return of Hunter Greene, it seems as if Cincinnati is still devoid of enough impact talent to make a dent on the playoff race. With six streaks of at least three wins matched by seven stretches of at least three losses, it seems that the Reds as constructed are doomed to remain in baseball purgatory – not bad enough to rebuild, but not good enough to contend.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 39-58, 0% playoff odds
Following a brief foray into relevancy in 2024, the Pirates have sunk back to their usual level of dysfunction, going 66-96 since last season’s All-Star break. This depressing run has gone into overdrive as they continue to employ arguably the most exciting pitching prospect of his generation, with every one of his starts becoming an event for all the right and wrong reasons. Paul Skenes just made his second All-Star game start despite having only 43 career starts to his name, which should tell you everything you need to know about his talent and star power. Alas, it is all going to waste in such a pitiful organization, as the Pirates continue to live in the same tier as sad-sack franchises like the Marlins and Rockies. Pittsburgh’s overall ineptitude has been much more evident in Skenes’ starts, as the righty is somehow 4-8 despite a 2.01 ERA and 0.4 HR rate, as Pittsburgh’s already-lousy offense suddenly becomes worse, as if wearing puffy shirts to the plate. Unless something radical happens, the rest of the league will be waiting until around 2030, when Skenes can theoretically become a free agent. Shout out to Mitch Keller, David Bednar, and Oneil Cruz, all of whom deserve much better than being a Pirate.
NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers – 58-39, 99.3% playoff odds
After a scorching 8-0 start, many started to dream of the Dodgers becoming a historic team, especially after they added Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki to their rotation. Three months later, those aspirations have been mostly abandoned, even as it is clear that LA remains the team to beat in the NL. Led by the inimitable Shohei Ohtani, the offense has clicked from the get-go, leading the NL in runs, homers, walks, OPS, and a slew of offensive categories, with Ohtani getting plenty of help from expected and unexpected sources, with Andy Pages suddenly becoming an Andruw Jones-like contributor. Alas, multiple injuries to the rotation have led to an inconsistent staff that currently ranks 23rd in ERA despite a top-tier performance from Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Despite these misgivings, the Dodgers continue to be the center of the baseball world and should remain there for the foreseeable future, as evidenced by their endless exposure on nationally televised games and commercials. With Ohtani back on the mound for short bursts, and the upcoming returns of Tyler Glasnow and Snell, there is hope that the pitching will fix itself from within, but there are no guarantees with so many injury-prone arms in their roster. Although they are a playoff lock, a recent seven-game skid showed how vulnerable LA can be, and will likely compel their front office to add even more pitching at the deadline.
San Diego Padres – 52-44, 48.2% playoff odds
On October 8, 2024, the Padres were fresh off an exhilarating victory over the Dodgers to take a 2-1 lead in the ALDS. They had the advantage of a home game to potentially clinch, facing a depleted LA team that would use a bullpen game to counter San Diego’s top pitcher. Despite these factors setting up everything in their favor, the Padres capitulated, failing to score even a single run over the final two games of the series, and ultimately seeing their bitter rivals raise a World Series trophy. The devastating end to 2024 has seemingly carried over to 2025, as the Padres continue to be the George Costanza to LA’s Lloyd Braun, always chasing an opponent that they know is unreachable. Following years of a stars-and-scrubs approach, the 2025 version of this franchise has become even more of an extreme in that regard, with the Padres becoming a bottom-10 offense despite the standout contributions of Fernando Tatis, Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill. Giving over 1,000 plate appearances to players who have posted negative WAR will do that to you, and so an upper class pitching staff has needed to carry the Friars to this point. With playoff odds near 50%, it is clear that the Padres are a couple of additions or a winning streak away from turning the corner, but they still look far from their stated goal of finally bringing a championship to San Diego. While their recent attempts to spend and compete have been commendable, it is also true that they have amounted to only three playoff appearances that peaked with a 5-game loss in the NLCS, while the franchise is still looking for its first division title since 2006.
San Francisco Giants – 52-45, 45.0% playoff odds
The San Francisco Giants are a big-market franchise for all intents and purposes. The fact that they are not viewed this way by many fans is a testament to their refusal to act as such, as well as their proclivity to use quirky players and be hamstrung by their home ballpark. Following years of the Farhan Zaidi regime, which prioritized constant churn and failed to land signature free agents, franchise legend Buster Posey was elected to guide baseball operations, and almost instantly decided to use the team’s financial might to their advantage. The late-2024 extension of Matt Chapman was the first step, followed by the free agent addition of Willy Adames and the in-season trade for Rafael Devers, including all of his expensive remaining contract. This means that the Giants have at least $100 million in payroll committed every year until at least 2030, which surely looks like an over-correction for a team that is still trying to regain the glory days of a decade ago. Results in 2025 have been mixed, with San Francisco jumping to a fast start that has slowly deteriorated due to an offense that is painful to watch at times, but with an elite bullpen and enough starting pitching to make fans dream of a surprising playoff run. Posey was the ultimate winner on the field, and now he gets a chance to prove what he can do behind the scenes, with a deep checkbook that he is not afraid to use.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 47-50, 10.2% playoff odds
With the Orioles and Atlanta being the clear letdowns of this season, Arizona has managed to fly under the radar in terms of unfulfilled expectations, so let’s take time to examine how it has all gone wrong for the Dbacks. With a clear need for pitching following a season in which they missed the playoffs despite leading the league in runs scored, the front office went all-in and signed Corbin Burnes to headline the rotation as part of a multi-year contract. Burnes was effective through eleven starts, but he is now out for the season and probably the next following Tommy John surgery, as it now seems that every notorious free-agent pitcher signed by Arizona is destined to fail in some way. Burnes’ absence, along with Zac Gallen’s poor first half, Brandon Pfaadt’s stagnation, and whatever Eduardo Rodriguez has become have led to Arizona being in almost the same spot as in 2024 – great on offense but incapable of winning consistently. The Dbacks are now third in hitting but with the fifth-worst staff, creating another frustrating situation for the front office, especially after they are now chasing several teams and unlikely to make the postseason. At this point, the most sensible thing should be to hear offers for many of their expendable veterans, like Gallen, Eugenio Suarez, and Josh Naylor, which could help fuel a quick retooling for next season.
Colorado Rockies – 22-74, 0% playoff odds
To end this exercise in the no-hugging, no-learning lore, there is nothing better than the Rockies, as they approach their destiny of becoming the literal worst team in modern baseball history. The numbers are astounding, as Colorado has made losing almost an art form. The Rockies are 4-26 in games decided by 5+ runs, 5-22 in interleague play, 10-36 at home, 12-38 on the road, and had to wait until June 2 to earn their 10th win of the season. They only have players with at least 1.0 WAR and are 24th in homers despite playing in a hitters’ haven. Colorado’s staff owns a league-worst 5.56 ERA and has failed to record a shutout, with none of its pitchers surpassing three wins but with three of them having at least 10 losses. The firing of long-time manager Bud Black and bottoming out at 9-50 were probably the biggest signs of alarm, and the team has played a bit better of late, but they are still on pace for a 27-135 mark that would be a scene, man. As usual, there appears to be no cohesive plan for this franchise going forward, and that should be the biggest failure in the end.
