Welcome back to Sit/Start, where every Saturday here at Pitcher List, we review all expected starting pitcher matchups for the week ahead. I will be carrying over Max Freeze’s ranking system from last year.
There are three labels: Start, Maybe, and Sit. Starts are sure-fire starts for those particular pitchers. This does not mean that they are incapable of having a bad outing, but I consider them more likely than not to have a good outing if they are designated as a Start.
However, the degree of confidence I have in a pitcher to have a strong outing is judged by their number in the tier. For example, I am much more confident that a Start-10 will have a good outing over a Start-7, even though I expect both to perform well.
The same goes for the other tiers. Maybes are starts that are a bit riskier, but depending on your league size or roster requirements, they may need to be used. A Start-10 is a pitcher who I believe will almost definitely have a strong outing, for example, Shane Bieber at the Detroit Tigers. A Sit-1 is a pitcher who under no circumstances you should consider starting.
We’re starting to see some new pitchers coming into the mix. Take a look below, and see how your rotation shapes up this week. Feel free to question my rankings in the comments, and let’s discuss!
| Monday – 5/17 | |||||
| Date | Game | Away Pitcher | Sit / Start | Home Pitcher | Sit / Start |
| 5/17 | SFG at CIN | Webb | Maybe-6 | Gray | Start-8 |
| 5/17 | NYM at ATL | Walker | Maybe-4 | Fried | Maybe-6 |
| 5/17 | CHW at MIN | Keuchel | Maybe-4 | Happ | Sit-1 |
| 5/17 | WSN at CHC | Lester | Sit-3 | Alzolay | Start-7 |
| 5/17 | NYY at TEX | Cole | Start-10 | Lyles | Sit-1 |
| 5/17 | CLE at LAA | Hentges | Sit-1 | Cobb | Maybe-5 |
| 5/17 | DET at SEA | Mize | Sit-2 | Kikuchi | Start-8 |
| 5/17 | ARI at LAD | Bumgarner | Maybe-4 | Buehler | Start-8 |
| 5/17 | COL at SDP | Gray | Maybe-4 | Darvish | Start-8 |
| Tuesday – 5/18 | |||||
| Date | Game | Away Pitcher | Sit / Start | Home Pitcher | Sit / Start |
| 5/18 | SFG at CIN | DeSclafani | Start-7 | Castillo | Maybe-5 |
| 5/18 | MIA at PHI | Neidert | Sit-1 | Wheeler | Start-9 |
| 5/18 | TBR at BAL | Patino | Sit-3 | Harvey | Sit-2 |
| 5/18 | NYM at ATL | Szapucki | Sit-1 | Davidson | Sit-1 |
| 5/18 | BOS at TOR | Rodriguez | Start-7 | Ryu | Start-7 |
| 5/18 | CHW at MIN | Lynn | Start-8 | Pineda | Maybe-5 |
| 5/18 | WSN at CHC | Corbin | Sit-1 | Davies | Sit-1 |
| 5/18 | PIT at STL | Brubaker | Maybe-5 | Gant | Maybe-4 |
| 5/18 | NYY at TEX | Taillon | Start-7 | Foltynewicz | Sit-2 |
| 5/18 | MIL at KCR | Woodruff | Start-10 | Bubic | Maybe-5 |
| 5/18 | CLE at LAA | Plesac | Maybe-6 | Heaney | Maybe-5 |
| 5/18 | HOU at OAK | Javier | Maybe-4 | Manaea | Maybe-6 |
| 5/18 | DET at SEA | Turnbull | Maybe-5 | Dunn | Sit-2 |
| 5/18 | COL at SDP | Gomber | Sit-2 | Snell | Maybe-6 |
| 5/18 | ARI at LAD | Kelly | Sit-1 | Urias | Start-7 |
| Wednesday – 5/19 | |||||
| Date | Game | Away Pitcher | Sit / Start | Home Pitcher | Sit / Start |
| 5/19 | CHW at MIN | Giolito | Maybe-6 | Shoemaker | Sit-1 |
| 5/19 | COL at SDP | Chi Gonzalez | Sit-1 | Musgrove | Start-9 |
| 5/19 | SFG at CIN | Gausman | Start-7 | Miley | Maybe-5 |
| 5/19 | MIA at PHI | Rogers | Start-8 | Eflin | Start-7 |
| 5/19 | TBR at BAL | Yarbrough | Maybe-4 | Means | Start-8 |
| 5/19 | NYM at ATL | Peterson | Sit-1 | Morton | Start-7 |
| 5/19 | BOS at TOR | Richards | Maybe-5 | Stripling | Sit-1 |
| 5/19 | WSN at CHC | Scherzer | Start-9 | Arrieta | Sit-2 |
| 5/19 | PIT at STL | Cahill | Sit-2 | Flaherty | Start-8 |
| 5/19 | NYY at TEX | Kluber | Maybe-6 | Yang | Sit-1 |
| 5/19 | CLE at LAA | Civale | Maybe-5 | Ohtani | Maybe-6 |
| 5/19 | MIL at KCR | Burnes | Start-10 | Keller | Sit-2 |
| 5/19 | HOU at OAK | Greinke | Maybe-6 | Montas | Maybe-4 |
| 5/19 | DET at SEA | Skubal | Sit-1 | Gilbert | Sit-3 |
| 5/19 | ARI at LAD | Smith | Sit-1 | Kershaw | Start-9 |
| Thursday – 5/20 | |||||
| Date | Game | Away Pitcher | Sit / Start | Home Pitcher | Sit / Start |
| 5/20 | SFG at CIN | Cueto | Maybe-4 | Mahle | Maybe-6 |
| 5/20 | TBR at BAL | Hill | Maybe-4 | Kremer | Sit-2 |
| 5/20 | NYY at TEX | German | Maybe-5 | Dunning | Maybe-6 |
| 5/20 | WSN at CHC | Ross | Sit-1 | Williams | Sit-1 |
| 5/20 | HOU at OAK | Garcia | Maybe-5 | Irvin | Maybe-4 |
| 5/20 | MIN at LAA | Thorpe | Sit-1 | Cobb | Maybe-4 |
| 5/20 | MIA at PHI | Alcantara | Start-8 | Velasquez | Maybe-4 |
| 5/20 | PIT at ATL | Crowe | Sit-2 | Smyly | Sit-3 |
| 5/20 | MIN at LAA | Berrios | Maybe-6 | Canning | Maybe-4 |
| 5/20 | BOS at TOR | Pivetta | Maybe-4 | Matz | Sit-3 |
| 5/20 | ARI at LAD | Kelly | Sit-1 | Price | Sit-3 |
| Friday – 5/21 | |||||
| Date | Game | Away Pitcher | Sit / Start | Home Pitcher | Sit / Start |
| 5/21 | BAL at WSN | Lopez | Sit-1 | Strasburg | Sit-2 |
| 5/21 | CHW at NYY | Rodon | Start-7 | Montgomery | Maybe-4 |
| 5/21 | BOS at PHI | Perez | Maybe-4 | Nola | Start-7 |
| 5/21 | MIN at CLE | Maeda | Maybe-5 | McKenzie | Sit-1 |
| 5/21 | MIL at CIN | Houser | Maybe-4 | Hoffman | Sit-2 |
| 5/21 | NYM at MIA | Stroman | Start-7 | Holloway | Maybe-4 |
| 5/21 | PIT at ATL | Anderson | Sit-3 | Anderson | Start-8 |
| 5/21 | TBR at TOR | Glasnow | Start-8 | Kay | Sit-1 |
| 5/21 | HOU at TEX | Ivey | Sit-3 | Gibson | Maybe-5 |
| 5/21 | DET at KCR | Urena | Maybe-4 | Minor | Sit-2 |
| 5/21 | CHC at STL | Hendricks | Maybe-4 | Martinez | Maybe-4 |
| 5/21 | ARI at COL | Frankoff | Sit-2 | Marquez | Sit-2 |
| 5/21 | OAK at LAA | Kaprielian | Maybe-4 | Quintana | Sit-3 |
| 5/21 | LAD at SFG | Bauer | Start-8 | Wood | Maybe-6 |
| 5/21 | SEA at SDP | Flexen | Sit-2 | Paddack | Maybe-6 |
| Saturday – 5/22 | |||||
| Date | Game | Away Pitcher | Sit / Start | Home Pitcher | Sit / Start |
| 5/22 | CHW at NYY | Cease | Maybe-6 | Cole | Start-9 |
| 5/22 | ARI at COL | Bumgarner | Maybe-4 | Senzatela | Sit-1 |
| 5/22 | HOU at TEX | McCullers | Start-8 | Lyles | Sit-1 |
| 5/22 | BAL at WSN | Zimmermann | Sit-1 | Lester | Sit-3 |
| 5/22 | PIT at ATL | Keller | Sit-1 | Wilson | Sit-1 |
| 5/22 | DET at KCR | Boyd | Maybe-4 | Singer | Maybe-5 |
| 5/22 | MIN at CLE | Happ | Sit-3 | Bieber | Start-8 |
| 5/22 | NYM at MIA | Lucchesi | Sit-2 | Lopez | Start-7 |
| 5/22 | MIL at CIN | Anderson | Sit-1 | Gray | Start-8 |
| 5/22 | LAD at SFG | Buehler | Start-7 | Menez | Sit-1 |
| 5/22 | CHC at STL | Alzolay | Maybe-6 | Mikolas | Sit-2 |
| 5/22 | BOS at PHI | Eovaldi | Maybe-6 | Anderson | Sit-1 |
| 5/22 | TBR at TOR | McClanahan | Maybe-5 | Ray | Start-7 |
| 5/22 | SEA at SDP | Sheffield | Sit-1 | Weathers | Maybe-5 |
| 5/22 | OAK at LAA | Bassitt | Maybe-6 | Bundy | Maybe-6 |
| Sunday – 5/23 | |||||
| Date | Game | Away Pitcher | Sit / Start | Home Pitcher | Sit / Start |
| 5/23 | CHW at NYY | Keuchel | Maybe-4 | Taillon | Maybe-6 |
| 5/23 | BOS at PHI | Rodriguez | Maybe-6 | Wheeler | Start-7 |
| 5/23 | BAL at WSN | Harvey | Sit-2 | Corbin | Sit-3 |
| 5/23 | TBR at TOR | Fleming | Maybe-4 | Ryu | Start-8 |
| 5/23 | MIN at CLE | Ober | Sit-1 | Plesac | Maybe-5 |
| 5/23 | NYM at MIA | Reid-Foley | Maybe-4 | Poteet | Sit-3 |
| 5/23 | MIL at CIN | Peralta | Start-8 | Castillo | Maybe-5 |
| 5/23 | PIT at ATL | Brubaker | Maybe-5 | Fried | Start-8 |
| 5/23 | DET at KCR | Mize | Sit-2 | Bubic | Maybe-5 |
| 5/23 | HOU at TEX | Javier | Maybe-5 | Foltynewicz | Sit-1 |
| 5/23 | ARI at COL | Martin | Sit-1 | Gray | Maybe-4 |
| 5/23 | LAD at SFG | Urias | Start-8 | DeSclafani | Maybe-6 |
| 5/23 | OAK at LAA | Manaea | Maybe-5 | Heaney | Maybe-5 |
| 5/23 | SEA at SDP | Kikuchi | Maybe-4 | Darvish | Start-9 |
| 5/23 | CHC at STL | Davies | Sit-1 | Wainwright | Maybe-4 |
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
Hi,
Why are Kikuchi and Brubaker left off the list? They both have two starts according to CBS.
I just updated it. When I put this together, it must not have had them as probables.
Coming off of a 7 inning, 9k gem with no walks… Nick in his recap called him ‘brilliant’ and removed the TIARA tag. “Corbin was better than we could have dreamed”. Sitting 92.7, ‘higher than any season average on his FB’ with ‘impeccable’ location. “Welcome back Patty C”…
A “Sit-1” grade doesn’t add up here? I love cross referencing you guys with BaseballHQ who grades the Corbin start @CHC very favorably (+1.3 is in well above the +.77 threshold for a 75th percentile start in a 12-team mixed).
As I’m digging around I think I’ve got my answer in that Pollock’s a bit higher on Corbin than you with a ‘probably start’ tag on him today. I’d love to hear the logic behind the sit as I am in a ’12-start max’ league and have 16 starts dialed in. Corbin is penciled in for both.
I don’t think Corbin’s recent and brief stretch of solid starts is him turning things around. His slider just isn’t performing as it used to, and when he doesn’t have that, he doesn’t really have anything else. He rates toward the bottom 5-7 percent of the league in all of these: xwOBA allowed, xERA, xBA allowed, and xSLG allowed. Simply put, hitters are (or should be) teeing off on him. Each of his starts has the ability to end in disaster. It’s a tight-rope walk.