After a four-year run of ups and downs, mostly downs, spending the period between 2019 and 2023 as many things but the outstanding starter we’ve grown accustomed to seeing partially due to many injuries, Chris Sale had a resurgent year last season. The absurdly talented southpaw found himself winning the NL Cy Young in his first season with the Braves, joining a rare group of arms to have won this award in both leagues.
This type of career path doesn’t usually happen. Normally, when the aging curve kicks in for a starting pitcher, and the injuries pile on, it’s mostly downhill from there, and primarily about damage control. How much can they still salvage from their best selves? That type of thing. Well, it’s incredibly unlikely for any arm to match the numbers Sale put up in 2017 and 2018 for the Red Sox, but he did rightfully win the Cy Young. This wasn’t your run-of-the-mill bounce-back campaign.
Six starts into the 2025 season, Chris Sale has been bad. Sure, the earned run average is not the most predictive measure in the world, but you can’t really argue with a 5.00+ ERA and 1.50+ WHIP. These numbers are not the result of one catastrophic outing clouding the whole line, either. In fact, it wasn’t until his latest performance of five innings of one-run ball that you sort of felt okay with things, and even then, he did that with a season-low four strikeouts.
The mind-boggling thing is that at first glance, it doesn’t appear like there is anything wrong with him. I’m sure many of you did exactly what I did and went searching for reasons behind this appalling start to the 2025 season. So let’s go over the checklist.
Velocity is Fine
Sale saw a bigger fluctuation in velocity on his four-seamer in two of the season’s first three starts. First against the Dodgers, he threw a lot of 90/91 heaters in the first few innings but kicked it up a notch as the game went on, Justin Verlander-style.
In his third start, he got cold-weather temperatures in Philly, during an outing in which Zack Wheeler also dealt with lower velocity than usual.
Overall though, Sale is sitting at 94.4 MPH on his four-seamer, pretty much in line with the 94.8 he had during that remarkable campaign in 2025. The veteran lefty can still bring the heat.
The Quality of Stuff is the Same
I didn’t include the sinker here, even though it was occasionally used last year at a 7% clip, because he has only thrown that pitch seven times this season, good enough for a 3% usage. Pitchers looking to find their best form often return to basics, so don’t expect that one to come into play in the near future.
One of the primary characteristics of Sale’s four-seamer is the absurdly high induced vertical break, and that’s the same as last season (15.4).
Now on to the Command
If you’ve looked at Sale’s PLV you’ve noticed a significant decrease across all of his major pitches, and that’s in big part because of location, something a stat like stuff+ won’t take into account for obvious reasons.
Here is a look at Sale’s four-seamer last year and in 2025.
That plvLOC+ going from 106 to 98 certainly jumps out at you.
Let’s see what’s up with that, shall we?
At this point in his career, we have a pretty good idea of what Sale wants to do, and one of the foundational pieces is to attack hitters with four-seamers up in the zone.
Well, Sale is missing with his heater, but he’s not missing by that much; it’s more so about where he is missing.
Conclusion
Command issues are not ideal, but if you’re looking for reasons to justify this poor start, they’re basically the best-case scenario. There is not a whole lot to do if your velo goes down two ticks or if your slider doesn’t have the same bite. For a veteran arm of Sale’s caliber, the smart money is on him finding that groove of command at some point, probably in the near future.
Even through all his early struggles, Sale can chalk up a decent chunk of this lousy statline to bad luck, I’m looking at that BABIP above .400. The strikeout-walk numbers are still pretty solid, especially given the shaky command.
While other name-brand arms such as Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola, and Zac Gallen carry far more unsettling concerns, Sale has shown enough to warrant a little more patience. There is a very good chance we’ll look back at this in a few months and feel silly for ever doubting the veteran left-hander.
