Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs NYM (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 97 pitches.
It was fun for us to shout EVEN YEAR for Aaron Nola at the start of the season, but we’ve all been frustrated watching him break the trend this season. And yet, I know some are like me and feel there’s still juice left in the tank to recover in the second half. It’s a hard sell given his season totals after yesterday’s 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 97 pitches (L) against the Mets: 5.68 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 24% K rate, 8% BB rate in 103.0 IP and 20 starts, but maybe, maybe there’s hope across this endless journey.
For starters, those numbers are much better across his last ten games if we remove a very avoidable game hosting the RHP-destroying Pirates: 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 25% strikeout rate. That’s not so bad, right? Here, Nola would have had a better outing if not for back-to-back jacks in to kick off the sixth + allowing a HR on a meatball 82 mph 1-2 slider, which was the only slider he threw the entire game, but it does highlight the biggest problem: HRs. It has been Nola’s issue for years and it’s getting amplified by the Dragon Ball (it grants wishes to hitters – the ball is getting far less drag than other years = more HRs. Just let me have fun and stop rolling your eyes). The truth of the matter is that Nola, despite locating changeups and curveballs beautifully, limiting the fastballs and barely sitting in the heart of the plate, while boasting a 65% strike rate is still posting four walks with three longballs. He hasn’t evolved enough in a game that has shifted massively across the last ten years and in many ways, the game has caught up to him.
This isn’t to say there is no value here. This is a VVPQS with a strikeout per inning. He’s allowed 2 or 3 ER in eight of his last ten games (including that 7 ER clunker vs PIT), and if he can be slightly more efficient, he’ll be able to complete the sixth more than three times in that span. However, those holding on for a return to form in the second half should look elsewhere. He’ll have a good start here and there, absolutely, but you’re better off streaming at this point. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Christian Scott (NYM) @ PHI (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 79 pitches.
“Every other” SP is just Scott on this weird Thursday before everyone else returns to baseball in the second half, sorry for the deke. Scott’s performance might make up for it, though, with consistent whiffs on all three of his main offerings, extra velocity on his sweeper, cutter, and splitter, and 7/10 strikes on curveballs for good measure. But why didn’t he go longer?! Because it was a one-run game and he nearly allowed the tying run via a Schwarbomb on his final pitch (it was ruled a double). I wish this outing quelled all my concerns, and in some ways, it did. The cutter was up-and-in constantly to LHB and the four-seamer command was much better than usual (52% CSW with a 74% strike rate!), but the breakers are…not it. Yet. The 82 mph sweeper is staying up far too much and it terrifies me, while failing to land around the edges and outside of it. The curve was an effective surprise to LHB, but it wasn’t landing down in the slightest and it allowed two of his three hits on the day. There’s still work to be done. We’ll continue to live in purgatory @MIL next, with a bench vs ATL, and start hosting MIA. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Jared Jones vs. Gavin Williams – A ton of great games (Melton vs. Detmers, Roupp vs. Bryce, Jax vs. Bannett, etc.). I think we’re all at the edge of our seat to see if Jones can pull it off again + Gavin looks prime for a dominant second half.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky
