Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup – Tarik Rolled

Nick Pollack reviews every starting pitcher performance from Tuesday.

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.  

Tarik Skubal (DET) vs OAK (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 57 pitches.

It was a joyous night as we saw the return of Tarik Skubal since he underwent flexor tendon surgery and he looked phenomenal via 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 57 pitches. He only allowed one baserunner on a literal back-foot slider and the real story here is a huge jump in velocity from his pre-surgery self. We’re talking from 94.1 to 96.4 mph as he looked impressive landing the four-seamer around the edges. The slider was the go-to two-strike pitch and while there’s a bit of refinement left to be added there, I dig it a lot.

Even with this start coming against the Athletics, you need to grab Skubal now if you can. It may take a start or two before he’s fully stretched out, but the improved heater with a filthy slider + curve and change in the mix makes for a legit 12-teamer pitcher. It’s good to have him back as our Senior Staff Analyst Scott Chu does everything he can to contain his excitement.

SidenoteReese Olson came in relief and looked fantastic: 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 70 pitches. I’m a little sad we don’t get a regular start from him, but he’s someone to look into moving forward with his slider returning a high CSW once again (38%) and the fastballs working well inside the zone. There’s even upside in that changeup when he has it working on any given night.


Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:


Logan Gilbert (SEA) @ SF (W) – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 105 pitches.

WELL LOOK AT YOU. Gilbert’s splitter wasn’t all too special while the four-seamer fared much better with a 16% SwStr rate and a whole bunch of outs in play. But the slider, THE SLIDER! 12/36 whiffs. You heard me, a legit whiff pitch on a breaking ball as he upped its velocity for the sake of tighter vertical break. It made for a great night at the park (well, having a three-pitch inning also helps, which shouldn’t exist if you’re a smart third batter of the inning. DON’T SWING AT THE FIRST PITCH YA DINGUS.) and while I’ve seen better commanded starts from Gilbert in my day, you have to be encouraged by that slider.

JP Sears (OAK) @ DET (ND) – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 90 pitches.

You may have overlooked this one as all eyes were on Skubal, but Sears came through for those who streamed him, featuring his most productive sweeper of the year at a 64% CSW while the four-seamer was…fine. It earned plenty of outs but was a bit of a Blame it on the Tigers as we’ve seen better four-seamers from Sears this season. It’s a gamble to chase Sears each outing and while we had the glorious matchup here, it’s commonly not the case. I suggest using him as just a streamer and likely a pass for his start against the Sawx on Sunday.

Brandon Bielak (HOU) vs COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 96 pitches.

Well I’ll be, enjoy the Gold Star Bielak, I didn’t think you had 96 pitches and your best changeup in you. I won’t ignore the outs you got with the curve as well, but it was a sub 50% strike rate as this was four-seamer/sinker/change combo that plodded its way through seven frames. Can’t say I want to lean into this moving forward, but if he gets more starts, I’ll at least pay attention to the matchups.

Jesús Luzardo (MIA) vs STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 93 pitches.

The dominance continues as Luzardo hasn’t allowed a run while recording at least eight strikeouts in three straight starts. That’s our guy. His changeup oddly had an off-day as well, but the fastball and slider are just that good.

Aaron Nola (PHI) @ TB (W) – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 104 pitches.

THANK YOU. He got the dang curveball down and had fantastic sinker/four-seamer command like the ole days. He didn’t even need that dang changeup here, just sinkers armside and four-seamers gloveside while that low curve was everything. Thing is, can we buy this command consistently now? I sure hope so.

Joe Musgrove (SD) vs LAA (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 25 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 100 pitches.

Ohhhhh DANG! That’s a Golden Goal for Musgrove with his curve, change, and cutter all returning 42%+ CSW marks as the fella was obviously feeling it. I’m glad to see him back to his ~20% fastball ways, and I’ll take 7/10 slider strikes if it means the other secondaries are cooking. I can’t emphasize enough how good the curve and changeup were as they consistently landed down in and out of the zone. He’s obviously in a great place right now.

Kenta Maeda (MIN) vs KC (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 87 pitches.

Yessssssss. Maeda has had his splitter each game since his return, here with 7/31 whiffs and plenty of outs, while the slider and four-seamer were maneuvered effectively around the zone as well. I wouldn’t expect this kind of magnificence frequently (Blame it on the Royals here) but he’s in a good place to be held onto in your 12-teamers likely through the end of the year.

Dane Dunning (TEX) @ BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.

I’ve been pretty down on Dunning and while the final line here sure looks like I should be swayed, I’m still hesitant to lean on an arm that’s hyper-reliant on BABIP and sinker called strikes. It’s uncommon for a pitcher with a 7% SwStr rate to carry low ratios easily. But hey, if you want to Vargas Rule it, you do you. Just make sure his ten-strikeout game against the Tigers doesn’t weigh the numbers too much for such an anomaly.

Kyle Hendricks (CHC) @ MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 95 pitches.

Oh hey, Hendricks did more of the same exact thing and did well. Again. It feels a little riskier against the Yankees next, but it may just be a Vargas Rule at this point.

Brennan Bernardino (BOS) vs TEX (ND) – 1.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 44% CSW, 18 pitches.

This was mostly a bullpen game with Chris Murphy’s 3.2 frames acting as the “bulk” guy. No, we have no interest. Murphy’s Law, n all.

Zach Eflin (TB) vs PHI (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 102 pitches.

Eflin just keeps being that rock for your fantasy teams, here with his curveball looking like Morton’s via 10/31 whiffs and 42% CSW. You love to see it.

Lucas Giolito (CWS) vs TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.

Solid work from Giolito to stave off the Jays, though the fastball was slower and the slider went just 23% CSW. However, the changeup was marvelous at 50% CSW, the heater got outs, and all that CSW on the slider came via the whiff. He continues to make it work and I have a lot of confidence in Giolito’s command these days. He’s going to be such a hot commodity at the trade deadline and I imagine a better fantasy arm when he’s on a better team.

Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ CWS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 83 pitches.

After nightmares + 12 strikeouts, we finally got a normal Bassitt outing with a PQSHe’ll get the Tigers next and we once again let him fly, not much else to say here.

Kolby Allard (ATL) @ CLE (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 73 pitches.

That’s much closer to the Dralla I’m used to, though this was just one run away from a solid performance. He didn’t do anything exceptional for me to get on board – 1/16 CSW on curves with just a 19% strike rate is…something – and you’re better off avoiding him altogether.

Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs BAL (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 80 pitches.

The sweeper and curve did great things here, while the cutter earned enough strikes over the plate to lean Schmidt away from the sinker. That works and while I still have my hesitations that Schmidt lacks an extra gear (without it, this is his peak, after all), this is a good enough approach that he can help as a TobyGuess that means we’re starting him against the Cubs over the weekend.

Keaton Winn (SF) vs SEA (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 67 pitches.

Womp womp. I was hoping for something cool here as a dark-horse play, but Winn ironically got the Loss as he couldn’t locate for the life of him. Fun fact: Sean Manaea came in for under 40 pitches and showed us a dramatically different slider, coming in six ticks harder and with ten inches less vertical drop. Yeah. So it’s a legit cutter now instead of curveball-esque? Pretty much.

Kyle Freeland (COL) @ HOU (L) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 91 pitches.

I’ll take predictable outcomes for $600. I am so smart. S-M-R-T, smart.

Kyle Gibson (BAL) @ NYY (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 104 pitches.

Did you do exactly what I just did? A small shrug? Because I absolutely did, too. Gibson just is. Ignore him in your leagues and you’ll be happier for it.

Max Scherzer (NYM) @ ARI (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 101 pitches.

Aces gonna give you a Dusty Donut with that dang ERA. Whatever, like a truck of cash unloading at your feet to forget about a potential lawsuit, you’ll take that WHIP, Win, and nine strikeouts and move along with your life.

Zach Davies (ARI) vs NYM (ND) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.

Almost. I don’t think Davies has enough in the tank to be considered in fantasy at the moment. There’s like one “castle” and a single piece of seaweed as you stare around and wonder “where’s the fish?” They’re gone, Suzyn. GONE.

Brett Kennedy (CIN) @ WSH (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 86 pitches.

You don’t know who this is and that’s fine. He tosses 92/93 mph heaters with a decent changeup. That’s it. That’s the starter. More like the ender of my fantasy teams, amirite? Oh dear. I need to sleep.

Wade Miley (MIL) vs CHC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 pitches.

Miley got a boost on both his cutter and changeup (1.3 ticks on the cutter, 2.3 on the changeup) and while they did wonderful whiff and CSW things with beautiful pitch separation, he got Singled Out by the Cubs. Womp womp. If we ran the simulator again, this would have been a far better final line. Anyway, is it enough to start him against the Reds? Ehhhhh your call. Maybe for a desperate Sunday.

Shane Bieber (CLE) vs ATL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 97 pitches.

Atlanta is not an offense you want to mess around with. Throw in a 16% CSW slider and just 2/16 whiffs on the curve and voila, there’s your disappointing Bieber start. I put him at the bottom of the second tier for today and yeah, I regret it. Atlanta, y’all. As for Bieber, he had one start looking like his prime self and we’re two starts removed from it now. It’s looking more and more like a Dennis in retrospect. But Atlanta! Yes, yes, it’s hard to judge. Start him for Kansas City and we’ll take it from there.

Adam Wainwright (STL) @ MIA (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.

Yeaaaaaah. Waino ain’t it. You know this. I know this. Your mechanic’s great-aunt Phoebe knows this. And she hates baseball. BOWLING, NOW THAT’S A SPORT! We get it, Phoebe.

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) @ SD (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 86 pitches.

Womp womp. There was a lot of hoopla about this game after Soto’s comments and while the Padres did get the better of Ohtani, his velocity was down nearly two ticks because of a blister. Wasn’t really a fair matchup, was it? With the ASB ahead, Ohtani will have a long time to heal and could make his next start in the first turn post-break, so let’s not get too worried about this.

Emmet Sheehan (LAD) vs PIT (ND) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 80 pitches.

Ouch. I’ve labeled Sheehan as a Toby given the emphasis on a lateral four-seamer that doesn’t get whiffs & a lack of dominating secondary pitch (probably the slider over time?) and with the slider + change returning just 41% strikes here, the fastball had to do too much. I still like Sheehan and think this was an off night, but his lack of dominating pitch does set up these moments. That’s why he’s an upper-end Tobyafter all.

Zack Greinke (KC) @ MIN (L) – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.

Greinke left this one with a shoulder injury and you have to wonder if it’s the last we’ll see of him. I hope not, he’s a treasure every day and deserves a farewell tour of some kind, even if it’s just one game of appreciation.

Patrick Corbin (WSH) vs CIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 93 pitches.

Intrigue? What intrigue? Corbin these days has as much mystery as a Crossfit class. There’s no confusion as to what you’re getting yourself into and there will be a whole lotta pain.

Luis L. Ortiz (PIT) @ LAD (ND) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 67 pitches.

Sigh. This was a pretty easy avoid but there was a part of me that hoped he’d surprise, you know?


Game of the Day


Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Oakland Athletics – First it was Skubal, now we get the return of Erod. Can’t wait.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.

Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

2 responses to “Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup – Tarik Rolled”

  1. Erik says:

    Skubal didn’t get TJS. He had flexor tendon surgery.

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