I released my massive Top 400 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball 2025 at the end of February (which you should absolutely read if you haven’t already!) and decided to leverage that into some smaller articles relating to guys you could target for specific categories or at certain times in your draft. You can find this article, and other similar ones, in our 2025 Draft Kit.
To get an extra edge, sign up for PL Pro. Gain access to our Live Draft Assistant Tool to win your drafts, using our PLV-powered projections. We are also offering a Lifetime Subscription option for a limited time. With PL Pro, you’ll get an ad-free experience, access to our 1,000+ member Discord (the best place to take baseball on the internet!), our 2025 player projections infused with PLV (Pitch modeling!), our incredible PLV Apps, including Live PLV data in-season and rolling charts for Process+, and so much more.
You can also join me LIVE on playback.tv/pitcherlist throughout the off-season as I craft these articles by watching games together, displaying my research process, and chatting with our community.
Below are some pitchers you can target for Quality Starts a little later in your draft.
1. Seth Lugo (KCR, RHP)
After such a fantastic sleeper season, I’m impressed that the fantasy crowd does not believe Lugo can dominate for another season. That doesn’t mean he should be ignored in drafts, though. Lugo’s deep pitch mix allowed him to dial back his four-seamer to RHB (it’s easily his worst offering) and favor curves, inside sinkers, sliders, and whatever Uncle Joe has in his kitchen sink instead to great effect. He still has difficulties with LHB (guess what, maybe throw more of that cutter that worked so well inside?) and they should bother him again in 2025, but is that enough to ignore Lugo? I don’t think it is.
The curve still misses bats, walks are a rarity, Kansas City is a great place to pitch, and the ERA is highly unlikely to get to a point where you consider dropping Lugo. He’s a safe ratio arm who is clinging onto his Holly title, hoping to showcase another 22%+ strikeout season to do so. He’ll help for the full season and that’s typically hard to find past pick 150 ADP. Yeesh, there is so much SP depth this year.
Quick Take: We all know regression is coming after Lugo’s miraculous 2024 campaign, but his deep arsenal, which includes a whiff-heavy curveball, should return a productive and reliable starter for the full year. Consider Lugo for a stable foundation if you’ve chased riskier starters earlier in our drafts.
2. Lucas Giolito (BOS, RHP)
Here’s the deal, y’all. Giolito will be ready for Opening Day. That’s the plan, that’s been the news for the entire winter, and we should be treating Giolito like we were last year at this time. He was even showcasing solid velocity in the spring before he underwent Internal Brace surgery (not TJS but close) and I see a legit upside play here for cheap.
The last few years of Giolito? Get them out of your head. He showcased skills mixed with games he was hurt or out of rhythm for teams that did little to fix his problems. Now he’s with the Red Sox with a solid gameplan that I believe will bring out the most of his four-seamer, changeup, and slider. Who knows, maybe there’s a cutter coming to help bridge it all together? Or maybe the curve returns?
The Red Sox will let the man cook…unless they want to limit him under 130 innings to snag another year at a cheap price. I believe the Red Sox can’t afford to lose those starts from Giolito and will instead work him every five days to get the most of him before they lose him to free agency. His changeup will likely still be legit, his fastball command strong, and with a slider that should be effective against RHB, he’s a Holly who could have his best season in ages. I love this, but sure, let’s see what happens in the spring. Monitor his velocity and arsenal changes to ensure he’s ready to produce for your fantasy teams every five games (NO SIX MAN, PLEASE).
Quick Take: This is a new Giolito. His arm is repaired, he has a great coaching staff behind him, and can go six innings often for a winning club. This is the scenario we’ve waited for Giolito to have for years and I’m all for getting in before the price goes up…just make sure it doesn’t look terrible during spring training.
3. Reese Olson (DET, RHP)
Olson has a great slider that is awfully effective against both LHB and RHB (with room to improve against RHB, come on, 58% strike rate? Really?) and a deadly weapon of a changeup against both RHB and LHB, though there were many games where he struggled to get the pitch high enough to LHB and failed to earn strikes he normally demands.
The biggest questions lie in his fastballs, the only trusted alternatives to the slider and changeup. Olson wisely turns to the sinker against RHB and was able to keep them at bay, though he can do a better job of jamming them instead of letting them fly carelessly over the plate. RHB get served his four-seamer 37% of the time, the worst offering in his arsenal, and I wonder if there’s an alternative in the future to allow Olson to reduce its usage to a sub 25% rate (or at least 30%). If not, it’ll continue to be a source of trouble as he hopes the change and slider do enough to keep him afloat.
Olson looks like the classic mold of a division rival SP in Ohio and that can turn him into a solid floor arm with 25% strikeout upside, though I’m a touch tepid until his changeup can find a strike rate above 60% and turn up in a consistent string of starts. In addition, Olson has a tough matchup against the Dodgers to kick off the season as the SP #3, though if you can stomach that, he should be easy going through the rest of April. In 15-teamers, his first outing isn’t of importance and should be a target in the mid-rounds, while in 12-teamers I’m willing to gauge the flow of my draft to see if there are a large array of upside fliers to take instead – I don’t feel as though I need to draft Olson and it’s a possibility the changeup doesn’t form and you’re left with a Toby for the season after stashing past the Dodgers.
Quick Take: Olson has legit potential as a strong volume arm if he can nail down his changeup to both LHB and RHB, while I’m hoping he finds a solution to limit his four-seamer against LHB. Consider him as a Holly flier and a strong target for deeper leagues.
4. Michael Wacha (KCR, RHP)
Wacha doesn’t get enough love for three straight seasons of sub 3.40 ERAs and sub 1.20 WHIPs – probably because he doesn’t wow us with legit velocity or big breaking balls. Nay, he does it the Hoffman way – absurd changeup after absurd changeup.
I’ll continue to have some skepticism that he can stave off LHB for a full season, but alas, the man finds a way to weave his variety of offerings around the zone all in an effort to get back to the changeup and take em down. I don’t think I’ve seen a pitch used over 25% of the time to both LHB and RHB return a 27% ICR or lower with strike rates above 66%. It really is that good.
Wacha is the perfect Toby. He’s unlikely to flirt with a 25% strikeout rate (possibly sit at 20% again), but he suppresses home runs and generally walks few enough batters to not let an elevated hits per 9 like last year’s 8.3 clip turn into an inflated WHIP. You’ll be bored along the way and consider dropping him plenty, but those in 15-teamers and deeper will set and forget. He’s set up for a date against the Guardians as the SP #3 on opening weekend and you may want to snag him just for that game before chasing a flier who starts one of the next two days.
Quick Take: Wacha is a safe Toby for 12-teamers rooted in one of the best right-handed changeups in the bigs. Don’t expect strikeouts and you’re bound to get bored and uneasy with him on your squad, but you’re allowed to move on if he isn’t cutting it. A Toby in all respects.
5. Justin Verlander (SFG, RHP)
It seems we are all on the same page that Verlander isn’t close to his former self. But is he cooked? If you mean a dry brine, then yes. There’s still value to be had with Verlander, even if his slider doesn’t get nearly the same number of whiffs that it used to against LHB or RHB. Consider Mr. Junior Varsity a Toby for your leagues – he won’t get you a strikeout north of 20%, but he’ll go deep for the Giants constantly with generally productive ratios and a fair number of Wins.
The other aspect to consider is Verlander’s own ego. There is no world where Verlander is showing up just for a paycheck. If he’s lost it, he won’t continue and slog innings with a 5.00+ ERA for an entire season. He still wants to show he has something left in the tank and if that’s gone, well, he gone. You may want to take a shot on Verlander for the Sunday game of opening week against the Reds in Cincy as a stream and take it from there. You’ll be able to drop Verlander for a SP #4/5 after that game if it doesn’t look pretty.
Quick Take: Verlander should be a solid 15-teamer player simply as a pitcher who will find his way through six frames more often than others, even if it doesn’t come with the same slider that propelled a strikeout rate comfortably above 20%. In 12-teamers, he’s a potential Toby who could help teams get through the early weeks, but unlikely to be much more.
6. Cody Bradford (TEX, LHP)
I have a soft spot for Bradford. He’s your standard crafty southpaw who gets overlooked due to low velocity at just 90 mph (let’s give it to him), though his elite seven feet of extension and 16-17″ of iVB in concert with his fantastic command to both LHB and RHB (it could be slightly better to RHB) allow the pitch to be the proper setup for his excellent changeup. No joke, this is a 93rd percentile changeup that could be even better in the year ahead if he can get the pitch down a bit more often. Respect the slowball. But not the fastball? Yeaaaah, it allowed 5 HR to RHB last year and is likely to be a cause of more pain in 2024. The 4% walk rate is elite, though it may be beneficial for Bradford to lower the zone rate on his heater from 53% down to sub 50% levels and sacrifice a few more walks along the way. Nibble like my 2nd grade class gerbil, Nibble. You said Nibble twice. Nah, that was her name. We were smart kids.
Against LHB, there is room to improve with Bradford’s slider nipping too much of the plate while also having a lack of sparkle, though his fastball hovered the edges beautifully and his changeup still made constant appearances. Mixed with the elite Rangers defense, Bradford was able to go 6+ IP in nine of eleven starts after his season debut on the bump. Yes, that should get you interested, especially in deeper formats. While I don’t believe in chasing potential Holly arms inside drafts, I may make an exception for Bradford if I felt I had too much risk in my lineup. That said, the Red Sox come to Arlington to kick off the year and I may want to leave Cody as a potential waiver wire addition if our early fliers don’t pan out. He’s most likely a Toby at the end of the day
Quick Take: Bradford’s elite extension from the left side amplifies an elite changeup, opening the door for his 90 mph fastball to work when he commands the edges. There’s work to be done with the slider and the prone heater limits his ceiling, though the Rangers defense is sure to help him find the sixth frame constantly. A solid 15-teamer addition and borderline 12-teamer play as a Toby who has a chance to be a little more.