I released my massive Top 400 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball 2025 at the end of February (which you should absolutely read if you haven’t already!) and decided to leverage that into some smaller articles relating to guys you could target for specific categories or at certain times in your draft. You can find this article, and other similar ones, in our 2025 Draft Kit.
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Below are 5 Starting Pitchers you can target late in your 2025 drafts.
1. Gavin Williams (CLE, RHP)
Gavin is the perfect example of a pitcher who is on the verge of success without the obvious signs. The man has struggled with control throughout his career, dealt with an arm injury for the first half of 2023, and has yet to display the legit upside we envisioned when he first arrived. I love using Williams as a way to showcase why we shouldn’t use high-level stats and call it a day (ERA, WHIP, K%, BB%, SwStr%, H/9, HOTEL stats), but instead, recognize what causes those stats and see what could change in the year ahead. The solution is looking at the pitcher’s repertoire on its own and connecting the dots with specific stats.
Nick, is this going to be a mini-article inside a random pitcher’s blurb? You betcha. Strap in for the longest blurb in this article.
What stats affect those high-level stats the most? Let’s go one by one and you’ll quickly see how obvious this is:
K% = SwStr% + PAR% (putaway rate). It’s shocking how easy it is to figure out strikeout trends of a pitcher just based on “Oh, his changeup dropped ten points in putaway rate”. Sometimes guys are just less efficient with a pitch in two strike counts more than usual. You need to have pitches that are thrown often enough and get whiffs, too, of course.
BB% = Strike%. If he throws lots of pitches with poor strike rates, he’s gonna walk more batters.
H/9 & BABIP = ICR% + GB% / FB% (and team defense, don’t ignore it!). ICR = Ideal Contact Rate, which is all contact that is good for hitters, not just Hard Hit% and Barrel%. In addition, grounders are going to allow more hits than flyballs, which raise H/9, but does increase HR rates. Team Defense will help understand large differences between ICR vs. BABIP, too.
WHIP = Strike% and ICR%. It’s walks and hits, you can include team defense and GB/FB% too.
LOB Rate = Generally lower if he limits HRs, has a suppressed H/9, and strikes out lots of batters. It makes sense – if you’re a dope pitcher, you’re not gonna allow multiple hits back-to-back as much as others.
HR rates = FB% + Mistakes over the plate with either poor breaking balls or fastballs with poor shape. It’s the least sticky of the lot which means…
ERA = All of it together and not as sticky as we’d like given the impact of HRs. Womp womp.
Take all of that in. You can track all of these things inside the Repertoire section of our player pages and I highly recommend you do so with Gavin as a primer. Now let’s walk through his page and I’ll showcase what I see that gets me excited for Gavin.
The first thing I do? Toggle the L/R split, switch to “All” to view all pitches, and see what he throws against RHB. For Gavin, he throws a four-seamer with a high strike rate, a low SwStr Rate, and high ICR. That’s a bit odd since his four-seamer is really good. It sat 96/97 mph with over seven feet of extension, and as we’ve seen with Garrett Crochet, if you have high velocity with elite extension and sit inside the zone, you can dominate without good movement or attack angle.
Well, what else does Gavin throw? AH. Two pitches, a curveball and cutter, combined for 30% usage (that’s a lot!) with the same horrible strike rate of 53.4%. Welp, there’s your walk problem and your four-seamer inefficiency problem. Batters aren’t challenged with another offering inside the zone, leading them to sit on the heater. But then why do both the cutter and curveball have 40%+ ICR rates if they aren’t sitting on them? Good question. Looking at their strike zone plots below, you can see how the ones that made it into the zone were hung in the middle of the plate. Not great.
The slider does look promising, though. Fewer misses over the plate, 62% strike rate, and a fantastic ICR%, though the SwStr rate is a bit soft. Possibly because he kept it in the zone 45% of the time instead of escaping off the plate, or maybe because it’s not the filthiest pitch out there. At any rate, it seems that Gavin needs to move away from the curve’s heavy usage and shift to more sliders or cutters…if he can stop tugging the dang cutter off the plate. With more of these secondaries keeping batters honest, the four-seamer should also improve, lowering the walk and hit rates.
Let’s move to LHB now. Ayyyy this ain’t so bad! Sure, the curve is still featured way too often (22% usage at another dumb 56% strike rate doesn’t help with walks), but 70%+ strikes with both the four-seamer and cutter?! Legit SwStr rates on both?! Sub 30% ICRs?! Ummmm, that’s the good stuff. Clearly, Gavin should be moving toward a four-seamer/cutter approach and save the curve for the rare two-strike offering and not try to throw it early and risk of getting behind too many batters.
And there you go. The fact that Gavin doesn’t struggle with earning strikes with his four-seamer and has at least one secondary earning strikes against both LHB and RHB has me optimistic that he can improve his walk rate moving forward. His elite mix of velocity and extension is a fantastic foundation and there’s a clear path toward growth in his approach that can grant better results across the board.
You didn’t talk about putaway rates. Oh right! Go to “Count” and take a look at PAR all the way on the right. Notice anything weird? If you select a single pitch type, you’ll see the percentiles for every stat for that pitch type (for LHB & RHB, not the split, FWIW). Gavin’s four-seamer putaway rate was horrible to both LHB and RHB and with a pitch of its caliber, that should rise dramatically should he improve the supporting cast. The man isn’t destined to be a 24% strikeout arm.
I hope that helped y’all understand the process a bit better and feel free to chat more about it during my office hours in the morning via playback.tv/pitcherlist or inside our PL+ Discord.
BACK TO THE ACTUAL RANKING STUFF. Gavin is going past the 200th pick in drafts and I’m so excited to take a shot on this. We’ll know early in the season if the cutter and/or slider is working and if the curveball is taking a step back to open up his full potential. In addition, don’t forget that 2024 was stunted by his early injury, preventing a normal off-season and spring training. Let the guy cook for the season and it’s safe to expect growth to come as he goes 90+ pitches every five days for a winning club. Go grab the man at a price that won’t affect you if it goes south.
Quick Take: Gavin’s four-seamer is primed for dominance and needs something that isn’t his unreliable curveball to take the next step. With a healthy off-season and routine spring, Gavin has the foundation to come into his own and put up legit 25%+ strikeouts with solid ratios. I’m a huge fan of his entering the year.
2. Dustin May (LAD, RHP)
He’s back! FINALLY! And y’all better pay attention. If May gets the gig (he doesn’t have any minor league options left!), I absolutely adore him for this year. He throws super hard sinkers with absurd horizontal break that completely wreck RHB. As they should, jutting inside viciously and returning stupid low ICR marks at 97+ mph. He’s made to go 6+ frames with ease based on that sinker alone, but he’s also flexed strikeout upside on the back of a 93 mph cutter and 86 mph curveball. As long as he’s actually healthy now post TJS and esophagus surgery (yep), this season should mark the beginning of him getting into rhythm to be a legit arm in the majors.
Sure, I do wish he had a little more whiffability and a changeup to go under the sinker for LHB, but give it time. The foundation is too good. I’m expecting the Dodgers to go with May or Miller out of camp and whoever it is, I want them on my teams.
Quick Take: If May gets the SP #5 job out of camp, I’m grabbing him everywhere I can. His 97+ mph sinker was a destroyer of bats and he was just beginning to achieve the potential whiffability in his 93 mph cutter and 86 mph curve. It’s all there, he just needs innings.
3. Jesús Luzardo (PHI, LHP)
There’s a lot to dissect with Luzardo. The move to the Phillies is obviously a positive now that he has an actual chance for more than 10 Wins, though that will depend more on his health than anything else – Luzardo has pitched 101 or more IP just once in his career and while he’ll have every opportunity this year to replicate his IL-free 2023 season, we can’t bank on that entering drafts.
And that’s fine. You won’t be drafting Luzardo in 12-teamers at a spot where you need to get him for the full year, in fact, I’ve seen him going near the last few rounds and that should excite you. Luzardo has all kinds of flaws from a massive strikeout rate drop last year (blame the four-seamer’s inability to get upstairs in two-strike counts. Yes, that’s the only major putaway rate drop from last year), to a slider that makes so many dang mistakes in two-strike counts to RHB that they held a 40%+ ICR across 27% usage, while also dropping to a paltry 52% strike rate to LHB (you know, the batters the pitch is supposed to dominate). Luzardo also saw a drop in velocity to 95 mph from 96/97 mph, which is amplified by a 2nd percentile extension that makes that 95 mph look like 93 mph. No wonder the pitch has so few whiffs.
Those flaws are correctable, though. His heater comes with exceptional horizontal movement (think of it like a sinker) and I believe he’s using it incorrectly. Its failures to RHB come from the pitch gliding from the inside corner back over the plate too frequently, while his approach to LHB is to back-door them for called strikes instead of jamming them inside. Sure, the outside heater helps mask the slider, but at least mix it up a bit more and take advantage of the pitch’s movement. Please.
The changeup is still a great offering against RHB, even if it doesn’t putaway batters as effectively as a well-executed slider. I’m hoping the Phillies direct Luzardo to use it more often against RHB while squashing the slider a bit, and possibly move the four-seamer down-and-away to add a bit more deception. That slowball is arguably Luzardo’s best offering and he needs to squeeze more out of it.
What I like about Luzardo is simple. He has two whiff pitches for 25%+ strikeout ability, has a long leash on a winning team, and we can make a quick decision on him in April, all while not sacrificing a substantial draft pick. Don’t think about the season-long volume or the floor right now – this is a draft pick you generally swap out for a waiver wire add throughout the year. Let’s hope it hits.
Quick Take: Considering the low draft capital needed for Luzardo, I’m very much in on giving this a shot. Luzardo has some needed tweaks to get the most out of his low extension approach – mostly avoiding damage on his four-seamer and slider – while his strikeout upside is very much present. With a high Win chance per start, I love seeing if this breaks right in April as you may have one of the actual sleepers of this year’s draft.
4. Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET, RHP)
Sawyer underwent Internal Brace surgery in late April, which spells a return in May/June as he’s had a setback with his hip as well, and should be on your radar. I’d imagine he’ll be sent to the minors before getting placed directly back into the rotation, but…you may want to IL stash him. The dude has 7.5 feet of extension and was sitting 94 mph with a true sinker (93rd percentile drop!) with a slider and changeup that he refused to float upstairs. The guy is made to confound down in the zone and go the Neckbeard approach, while he could theoretically go upstairs with four-seamers at his extension and 1.4 HAVAA.
Sooooo yeah. Here’s a stupid fun sleeper, especially for your draft and holds. Sure, it’s not clear if he’ll be back to normal when he does arrive, but dang. This feels like a super unique skill set with shockingly stellar command that could be super real. Wow.
Quick Take: Gipson-Long has a unique mix of legit vertical pitches that he keeps down merged with Gilbert-esque extension that makes for a very legitimate starter if he’s fully healthy once returning. This is your ultra sneaky IL stash.
5. Richard Fitts (BOS, RHP)
He was kinda cool for a moment last year and with Bello and Crawford looking like they will be on the shelf for Opening Day, he’s in the running with Quinn Priester to be the #5 SP out of the gate. After flexing 94 mph last year and a bit of a Toby, Fitts is suddenly sitting 97+ mph, which is expected to go down a touch, but it came with a pair of breaking balls as well and hot DANG if there’s truth to this, he’s making the rotation and would be worth while in all leagues. Pay attention here.
Quick Take: If Fitts’ newfound velocity is real, everything takes a leap forward from last year. Pay attention to his spring outings and with an opening to take the #5 spot out of camp, he could be that guy you wish you were in on.