One of the most impressive full-season debuts, Corbin Carroll looked to be the franchise superstar for Arizona. After an up-and-down 2024, there are some questions about which player Carroll is. The answer is a mix. There are stats to take away from both 2023 and 2024, but Carroll put together two solid full seasons. 1st half vs 2nd half is the big debate in 2024. After a tough start, Carroll turned it around near the All-Star break and returned close to his 2023 form. Let’s dive into which Carroll we can expect in 2025.
Corbin Carroll 2024 Stats:
.231/.322/.428, 121 R, 22 HR, 74 RBI, 35 SB
Player A or Player B:
Corbin Carroll was two players during the 2024 season. The 1st half and 2nd half were two drastically different productions. In the first half of the season, Carroll hit .213 with only five home runs in 94 games. The start of the season was rough for Carroll as he hit just two home runs from April through June. Only his second full MLB season, the start of 2024 looked as if Carroll was due for a major regression. While the 2023 version of Corbin Carroll may have been best best-case scenario, 1st half of 2024 was the worst case. Carroll is somewhere in the middle ground of these two players. The 25 home runs in 2023 were a bit surprising despite him hitting 24 in 93 MilB games in 2o22. Through the first half, five home runs were certainly an overcorrection. Carroll had a shoulder injury in 2023 that limited him to 4 home runs in his last 53 games. Carroll has shown that his 20+ home run power is real but the 1st half-hitter raises concerns.
The power showed up after the All-Star break, with 17 home runs in his final 64 games. Carroll also hit .259 with 17 steals and a slightly better walk rate. A massive month of August, Carroll hit 11 of his 22 home runs in those 27 games. The second half of the year is more indicative of the player Carroll is. He ended the year with a .231 average with a .247 xBA. 17 home runs were in the month of July and August for Carroll as he found his stride mid-season. The consistent amount of stolen bases gives Carroll a high upside. Much like his power, the stolen bases came mostly in one month. Carroll tallied 13 of his 17 second half steals in September. The tools are all still plus, but the inconsistent sophomore season makes Carroll a bit tougher to trust. Still a top pick, he may fall from the top 7-8 range, to just outside the top 10.
Corbin Carroll’s Dynasty Appeal:
Coming off a 2023 where he hit 25 home runs and stole 54 bases, Carroll was regarded as a top 10 dynasty hitter. 24 years old, the young outfielder checked every box to be a top keeper for dynasty. He displayed power, speed, the above-average hit tool, and an opportunity for plus run totals hitting at the top of the order. A true 4-category player and newly 24-year-old gives him way more value in dynasty formats. Still, in that 8-15 range of hitters for dynasty formats, Carroll has plenty of career left that could justify taking him in the top 7-8 picks. 2023 will always be the year that fantasy owners will expect from Carroll, but it may just be the best we’ll see from him.
Age has a high value in dynasty formats, but it can’t be overvalued. Corbin is 24 and to me, the ~20 home runs, 30+ stolen bases, and plus plus run totals are enough to value him near the top. Add in a good walk rate, and a hopeful/expected resurgence of batting average is enough to get him into the top-five conversations. Given the down year, no one is valuing Carroll any less, and they shouldn’t. Outside of Bobby Witt Jr., Elly De La Cruz, and Fernando Tatis Jr., there aren’t many young talents that can do what Carroll can. The biggest concern is how the injuries have limited him. 2023 was the shoulder, and 2024 was his left rib cage. The rib injury in 2024 may have been what caused such a down first half. Moving forward for dynasty leagues, Carroll is one of the best picks a fantasy owner can make.
Corbin Carroll’s Re-Draft Value:
2024 may not have been the complete dominance expected from Carroll, but the 2nd half of the year restores confidence. Carroll should be valued around the 10-15 range of re-draft hitters due to the power and speed value. A year of regression still holds Carroll as one of the better fantasy bat options. The value here is slightly lower than dynasty formats, mostly due to the down and streaky 2024. The upside here is still one of the highest for four of the five counting stats.
While there isn’t much that matters outside of the year ahead, upside takes the place of age in re-draft formats. Carroll has plenty of upside and if you drafted him in the top 10 in 2024, you’re okay with the final stat line. That being said, the first half of the year was essentially a player that shouldn’t even be rostered. Players go on hot and cold streaks that can’t be predicted, but the 2024 season was more than that. As mentioned, Carroll put up a majority of steals and home runs in a one-month span. Monthly streaks can make and break a season but they are something fantasy owners live with when they draft streaky players. Moving forward, I don’t think Carroll will have this type of streakiness attached to him. His 2023 season was a product of consistency. 2025 should be more likely to match the 2023 Carroll in terms of consistency, but a mix of 2023/2024 for production. Outside of the clear top hitters, Carroll is going to be a top 10 bat that will give you plus tallies in Runs, Steals, and 20+ home runs. Personally, anyone looking to avoid Carroll could miss out on a resurgence that may combat his 2023 numbers.
