The AL Central has been a strange division for quite some time.
There is rarely a clear favorite winner due to a generally small market amongst the five teams. In addition, most teams were in a “rebuilding” phase in 2023, leading to some mediocre performances across the board.
A commonality between these five teams has been their pitching development; teams such as the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins have shown an ability to get the best out of pitchers, whether in their rise through the minors or joining the big league team from elsewhere.
However, this is not always the case. In 2023, pitchers such as Michael Kopech, Brady Singer, and Joe Ryan took a step back after “breaking out” in 2022 as solid starting pitchers.
From high-tier prospects to big-league surprises, these three pitchers have shown in the past they can succeed in Major League Baseball.
Even after a rough 2023, I believe they can bring back this success with a few important adjustments.
Michael Kopech had a breakout 2021 season as a starter/long reliever, generating a 3.50 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 69.1 innings. Kopech broke out once again, this time as a starter, in 2022, having a 3.54 ERA over 25 starts in 119.1 innings. This was followed by a rough 2023 season, as Kopech had a 5.43 ERA and 6.46 FIP in 129.1 innings as primarily a starting pitcher.
Overall, Kopech was hurt most by high exit velocities and fly ball rates. Hitters saw an increase in barrel rate from a below-average 8.8% in 2022 to an abysmal 12.7% in 2023. In addition, Kopech walked an abysmal 15.4% of batters, which is close to worst in the league.
Most of this can be linked back to Kopech’s move to the rotation. While his ERA in 2022 was in line with his ERA during his 2021 season as a reliever, his FIP jumped from a solid 2.97 in ’21 to a mediocre 4.49 in ’22. His strikeouts fell and walks increased once he joined the rotation, and in 2023, his home runs did as well.
As a starter, you end up facing batters multiple times, which was difficult for Kopech. In 2023, batters had a 1.097 OPS when facing Kopech for the third time, severely hurting his ERA as a starter.
Another problem with Kopech in 2023 was his stuff.
Data via Baseball Savant (dotted circle = league average)
Kopech’s best pitch has always been his four-seamer, generating buzz as a prospect due to its high velocity when he was rising through the minor leagues. Since he joined the rotation in 2022, however, his four-seamer hasn’t had this elite velocity.
In addition, as his overall stuff fell in 2023, his four-seamer generated much worse results. Its PLV dropped from 4.92 in 2022 to 4.80 in 2023, with the rest of his arsenal taking a similar hit.
This is significantly different from how his stuff played as a reliever; in 2021, his four-seamer had an elite 5.50 PLV, with an average velocity of 97.3. Along with a worse shape, his four-seamer’s significantly worse performance can be attributed to a mechanical change.
As a reliever in 2021, Kopech had a high release point, as seen below.
In 2023, his release point on that same four-seamer was quite lower.
Kopech had a similarly solid extension on both pitches, yet velocity was a big difference. A reason for a lowering arm slot could certainly be rooted in managing injury, as Kopech struggled with them throughout his time in the minors and early days in the majors.
The rest of Kopech’s arsenal was similarly mediocre to his four-seamer in 2023. Kopech’s slider has solid movement, as well as a changeup and curveball that serve as a supplement to keep hitters off the fastball. While another consistent, effective pitch could certainly help Kopech get through the order with less damage, the best thing he can do is reestablish the dominant four-seamer that carried him to the majors.
As a starter, Kopech has had to throw many more innings than he would have as a reliever, making health a big priority. With a significant dropoff in performance, however, Kopech might see more success as a reliever. This may just happen; on March 14, it was announced that Kopech would be moved to the bullpen for the beginning of the 2024 season. While being permanent could certainly improve his numbers, I believe this move can help him build back confidence and drop his awful walk numbers from 2023.
Whether or not this move is permanent, Kopech still has the talent to rebound. The best thing he can do is get reps and stay healthy, and due to the White Sox’s negative outlook in 2024, this should be on their list of priorities as well.
Brady Singer played in his fourth career MLB season in 2023, pitching to a 5.52 ERA and 4.29 FIP over 159.2 innings. This comes after a breakout 2022 season, where Singer posted a 3.23 ERA/3.58 FIP at the top of the Royals rotation. This steep fall-off in ERA came as a result of a significant drop in strikeouts and a rise in hits allowed, although walks and home runs were mostly unchanged from previous years.
Singer has gained recognition throughout his career through his high called-strike rates, giving him an elite CSW% of 31.2% in 2022 despite average whiff rates. In 2023, as his Whiff% dropped to a career-worst 22.7%, his called strikes decreased as well, with hitters damaging his pitches in the zone more frequently than in the past. As his CSW% dropped, his ERA rose, giving Singer his worst season yet on a results basis in 2023.
Singer’s stuff has always been decent, with a mediocre 4.98 PLV in 2022 dropping to a below-average 4.82 in 2023. This largely comes off the back of a recurring problem for these pitchers: dropped velocity.
Data via Baseball Savant (dotted circle = league average)
Singer relies on his sinker/slider combo to get hitters out, often generating weak contact with about a strikeout per inning. While his changeup is occasionally thrown, its movement and velocity are so close to the sinker that it doesn’t do a great job of keeping hitters off the sinker.
Singer’s velocity on the sinker took a big hit in 2023. In 2022, it averaged 93.8 MPH, putting it around the league average for the pitch while generating great results. In 2023, however, it only averaged 92.1 MPH, with hitters slugging .553 against the pitch.
His slider was a solid offering in 2023, as it has been in the past. Without the sinker’s effectiveness to support it, the slider still generated worse results.
A big reason for this velocity dropoff could have been health. Singer had a nagging back injury in 2023, which led to Singer getting shut down by the end of the season. A spring training consisting of pitching in the World Baseball Classic could have also exacerbated this injury while hurting how the Royals could have treated it.
Entering spring training, Singer likely focused on health in the offseason, a key for his velocity returning. More of a “normal” spring training could be useful for Singer to return to form as well.
In addition, adding a consistently used third pitch could help mix up what hitters see, with news of Singer working on a split-change being an excellent addition if implemented. A pitcher of Singer’s approach, aiming to avoid barrels while staying within the strike zone, could certainly benefit from the use of a wider variety of pitch shapes to keep hitters off balance. Either way, Singer has proved himself to be a competitor through his first four years in the majors and likely seeks to restore this image for himself and others to see in 2024.
Like Singer, Joe Ryan broke out in 2022, pitching to a 3.55 ERA and 3.99 FIP over 147.0 innings. In 2023, however, Ryan had a 4.51 ERA in 161.2 innings, alongside a 4.13 FIP.
Overall, Ryan got better in many aspects of his game in 2023. His strikeouts jumped drastically, from 9.2 per nine innings to 11.0, and his walks remained a non-issue. However, opponents slugged .452 off Ryan in 2023, leading to an ugly 1.8 home runs per nine innings.
This primarily stems from hitters averaging 90.0 MPH exit velocities again Ryan, along with an extremely high 44.2 fly-ball rate and 16.7% home-run-to-fly-ball rate .
Home runs have always been a bit of a problem for Ryan, leading to him making some adjustments to his arsenal going into 2023.
Data via Baseball Savant (dotted circle = league average)
In 2023, Ryan added a split-finger consistently, dropped his curveball and changeup usage, and switched to a sweeper primarily over a slider.
While the results in his ERA didn’t necessarily follow, they did in many other aspects. His whiff rate, chase rate, and even ground-ball rate improved in 2023 as a result of these new pitches.
His split-finger increased his ground ball rates, the sweeper increased whiff and chase rates, and his fastball continued to shine as his best pitch. His fastball even improved, going from a mediocre 5.02 PLV in 2022 to an elite 5.29 in 2023.
Ryan’s ERA did not follow these changes. His four-seamer was hit harder than ever, with hitters slugging .299 against the pitch in 2022 up to .457 in 2023. The sweeper and split-finger also had mediocre results, and his slider was hit well when thrown.
In this case, a good portion of Ryan’s lack of success could be attributed to bad luck. While he gets hit hard, he saw a career-high home-run-to-fly-ball rate and BABIP, indicating some batted balls may not have been as dangerous as the results were.
This was reflected in Ryan’s xERA and xFIP via his player page, sitting better than his actual ERA and FIP at 4.19 and 3.75, respectively. Baseball Savant even has his xERA at 3.53, right in line with his past xERA in 2022 of 3.57.
Expected results do not always equate to real results. A pitcher having high fly ball rates and exit velocities is typically a recipe for disaster, although Ryan’s unique fastball, as well as his willingness to adapt as a pitcher, could certainly avoid this stereotype as his career progresses.
In 2024, expect Ryan to continue adapting his arsenal to limit fly balls, as well as hopefully reducing hard contact. Reports have indicated Ryan intends to include a sinker in 2024, which would be an excellent addition to his current arsenal.
If his four-seamer retains its current shape, a sinker would be great for further increasing whiffs on the pitch while limiting home runs. Along with a year of throwing his sweeper and splitter consistently, Ryan is in an excellent position to bounce back for the Twins in 2024.