Tough Jake

I really dislike leading with a pitcher in back-to-back starts, but Jacob deGrom has given me no choice after going 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks against the Rangers...

I really dislike leading with a pitcher in back-to-back starts, but Jacob deGrom has given me no choice after going 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks against the Rangers last night. That brings his ERA to a bloated 4.75 mark, WHIP to 1.44, and heartbreaks into the thousands. So what on earth is going on with him? On one hand, he's getting whiffs like a stud, especially on his Four-Seamer, which is sitting at a 16% whiff rate. That's crazy good and makes me think he get over this hump. On the other, he's just not commanding his Slider like he has in the past, while his Changeup and Fastball are getting crushed for longballs often. We're talking 20.0% HR/FB rate across the board here. It looks to me like deGrom just isn't as consistent as we've seen in the past. I've touted him as the Ultra Finesse arm as he pitches like a guy with a 91mph heater but actually throws in the mid 90s, making him a stud. These days he's lost the polish - 37.6% hard contact, 39.2% pull rate up from 32.2% last year - but has the substance. This is without mentioning his 9.6% walk rate that's risen from 5.1% and 6.0% in the past two years, which speaks more to the overall command not on point. Is this due to a hidden injury? It's possible, but considering his velocity is at its highest he's ever been (95.0mph compared to 93.4mph last year), I wouldn't believe that. Do we buy low? Sell? Hold? I think you Buy and Hold. I'd imagine his price won't get much lower than this (okay, maybe if he falters one more time) and I trust him rebounding and dominating more than guys like Justin Verlander, Masahiro Tanaka, and Rick Porcello. deGrom has been a command pitcher for ages and I have faith he can make the adjustment to get back on his feet again while retaining the whiff rates.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

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Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

12 responses to “Tough Jake”

  1. Rory says:

    Folty is taken and I need one, maybe two streamers. Liriano and Perdomo are the only good options, Go with both or just one?

  2. David says:

    DeGrom and Tanaka, aces gonna…shiiiiiit

  3. twoods says:

    Matt Cain wasn’t Scooter’s victim last night, it was actually Adam Wainwright. Might change your perspective on both of those pitchers’ nights. Just thought you should know!

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Ah! Complete brain fart, thanks!

      Doesn’t change anything in the scope of things, of course.

  4. nick g says:

    should i run with eickoff against ATL today? or are we totally over him at this point? i could stream jharrel, perdomo, or liriano, but i love none of those options

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I don’t like any of those. I’d consider Buck Farmer possibly against the Angels, though.

  5. Rhino says:

    i was totally thinking you would pick Faria for today’s streamer against the Sox. What do you think of him in his ML debut? He’s been pretty darn good in the minors and has a relatively easy matchup.

  6. Goingfish says:

    I’m a believer in your sell Ray strategy, but if he was keepable next year in the 18th round and berrios was keepeable in the 12th would you still sell Ray if you weren’t competitive for playoffs?
    I guess in short what is ray and berrios value next year?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Ray will probably go higher than the 18th next year, but that shouldn’t stop you from selling him this year – it might even improve the haul you get back.

      I think you can shoot higher than a 12th round Berrios.

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