Trusted/Rusted/Busted

Every great car one day will turn into a busted-up lemon. No matter how much that engine sang in its heyday, there comes a time when every great vehicle goes into the scrapyard. Baseball players are similar. Even the greatest of players can’t fight the aging curve forever, and for a fantasy manager, drafting a player in their mid-30s is a cause for concern. How much do they have left in the tank? It can be very difficult to predict the decline of certain players, some have excellent longevity, and some – well – are good until they are suddenly not.

So before Opening Day comes and these vets take the field, let’s play every fantasy manager’s favorite game:

 

TRUSTED/RUSTED/BUSTED

 

The rules are simple. I’ll pick a player, examine their previous seasons and their career trajectory, and judge which category they belong to. What do the categories mean? Well here are the category explainers for how this game will work:

Trusted – a player that you can count on who will certainly produce. A solid pick even in high rounds, and well worth the ADP

Rusted – Flawed, but starter-quality. They aren’t the player they were in their heyday, but still capable of some solid production, a good mid-round value

Busted – Old, beaten-up, and well past their prime, these players are hardly worth rostering even in fairly deep leagues – and even then only as a late-round flier

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at five veterans, all in their mid-late 30s, and see where they place on this innovative scale:

 

Mike Trout

 

This’ll make you feel old, huh? Mike Trout will be 33 in August, and he’s coming into 2024 having spent more time tending to injuries than you’d like to see. Trout has not been a qualified hitter in a full season since 2019, and hasn’t had 650 PAs since 2015. He’s dealt with wrist issues, a gnarly calf strain, a fractured hand, and a lingering back issue that has all no doubt played a role in his performance. While young Trout swiped bags at an extremely high rate, Trout has been reluctant to attempt thieving second base. Here’s an insane stat for you: Since 2021, Mike Trout has had as many stolen base attempts as Albert Pujols.

While normally I could wave off such concerns, 2023 took a turn for the worse. For the first time in his career, Trout slugged below .500 (.490), averaged less than .280 (.263), and his OPS+ dropped to 131, 37 points lower than his lowest career mark. While I usually can shrug off some injuries, the decrease in rate stats raises many questions about his longevity.

BUT

This is still Mike Trout, the greatest player of our generation (excluding Shohei, who’s a different case). His slash line last year was .263/.367/.490, and if that’s a fall from grace, it still places him well above most hitters. As for his injury concerns, his fractured hand that caused him to miss a good deal of time at the tail end of the season should be healed by now, and if the back has caused him discomfort, it hasn’t been reflected in terms of his raw power.

Trout had a barrel rate of 16% last year and still had great plate discipline to boot. Perhaps more reassuring, Trout was as fleet-footed as ever, with his 96th percentile sprint speed showing that he’s still as much of a physical beast as he’s always been. Given his power, eye, and speed, it looks like Trout still has all the tools he’s displayed his whole career. It’s also worth mentioning he underperformed his xwOBA a fair amount last year, which at .389, was still one of the highest in baseball.

I’m not going to lie, Trout makes me nervous, as it seems like age + injuries have finally taken a toll. Perhaps Trout isn’t quite the same powerhouse he was in the 2010s, but by all accounts, he’s still an elite player, and he’s worked up a decade+ of goodwill for me to believe in him again. Plus, if that 2010s Trout is still in there, his upside is unanimous MVP, it’s hard to doubt that.

VERDICT: TRUSTED

 

José Abreu

 

Admittedly, José Abreu will probably not be a factor in many leagues, but in deeper leagues, you may be looking at José Abreu as a deep sleeper. After all, Abreu is in an elite lineup, and just two seasons ago hit .304. However, José Abreu had a pretty abysmal 2023. Signed to a big deal to fortify the Houston infield, Abreu hit .237 with little power and little ability to draw walks. Abreu was a massive hole in the Astros lineup, which, considering he offers basically no defensive value, is not what you want for your $19.5 million first baseman.

Exacerbating things further, Abreu is now 37, making him one of the oldest players in the league. The track record for 37-year-old hitters is, to put it mildly, not good. Since 2010, there have been just 34 qualified hitters with a league average WRC+ or above, many of which are by steroid users or all-time greats, of which Abreu is neither.

Further making things problematic, I really can’t find much to like about Abreu coming into 2024. He had a good postseason, but that’s about it. His barrel rate? Exactly league average. Chase rate? 10th percentile. Strikeout-to-walk ratio? 103rd among qualified hitters (bad). He hits lefties decently well and had a stronger second half, so there may be some gas left in the tank, but again he’s 37. The thing keeping Abreu afloat is that he plays in one of the most stacked lineups in baseball, so his RBI opportunities should be plentiful, even if he may struggle to capitalize on them.

In deeper leagues, Abreu could be a sneaky late-round flier with some moderate upside if he can recapture even a fragment of his White Sox self, but otherwise? Junk.

VERDICT: BUSTED

 

Justin Verlander

 

sigh

Verlander had a bizarre 2023. After signing a massive deal to move to New York with the Mets, Verlander was traded back to Houston, where he enjoyed some success with his new/former ballclub, putting together some nice playoff performances in the process. Just a couple of years removed from a sensational Cy Young campaign where Verlander posted a sub-2.00 ERA, the power pitcher had… a Justin Verlander year. Almost all of his numbers were in line with his career averages, which, given that he’s likely to be a first-ballot Hall Of Famer, means it was a strong year, right?

Sorta.

Verlander qualified by exactly two outs, and while the loss of volume is cause for some concern, the more alarming figures are under the hood. His fastball (y’know, basically Verlander’s whole thing), dropped a tick on average, but more disturbing is his peak velo drop. Verlander is unique in his ability to scale down his fastball velo if need be, then dial it up for triple digits if the time comes. It’s what makes Verlander special, and he just couldn’t do that last year. In 2022 he flashed 99 and 98 mph with regularity, but in 2023 he threw just two pitches over 97 mph (both in the same at-bat to Will Smith, poor guy). DON’T LIKE. Verlander’s fastball shape is still great, but given his age, one can only be concerned if he’ll lose another tick or gasp, two!

Verlander is 41 years old, a very scary age for a pitcher. Remember when Adam Wainwright tried to go out there at age 41 last year? Randy Johnson cruised in his late 30s, winning four straight Cy Youngs, and he even finished runner-up in his age 40 season, but 41? Randy’s strikeouts dropped, home runs went way up, as did his ERA, and he wouldn’t finish a season with an ERA below 3.75 again. Like, here’s every pitcher since 2000 that had a below-average ERA at the age of 41 or over (that didn’t take steroids):

It’s a peculiar list of pitchers to be sure, including two knuckleballers and two perfect game throwers. Still, only 2017 RA Dickey has been above average at run prevention since 2008 at the age Verlander is right now. Furthermore, only Randy Johnson, who’s a pitching unicorn, had a season with a strikeout-minus-walk rate over 11%. It’s not impossible for a 41-year-old to have a good season, but the odds are stacked against him.

So are the peripherals. Verlander’s ERA, FIP, and xERA were better than the league average, but his xFIP and SIERA were not. That’s already concerning, but maybe most alarming is his strikeout-minus-walk rate, which at 14.8% was 38th/58th among pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched last year. Comparing that to his 2022 mark of 23.4%, it seems like completely different pitchers. If that wasn’t bad enough, he has yet to throw a pitch this spring and will start the year on the injured list. You could maybe get me to buy in on a healthy but old JV, but now that he’s injured? Sorry Justin, I don’t see it.

VERDICT: BUSTED

 

George Springer

 

Springer’s career in Toronto has been strange, to say the least. His injury-shortened 2021 had him put up excellent rate stats, and he was an All-Star in 2022. Springer’s 2023 was, however, a mixed bag. He had his first career 20/20 season thanks to the new rule changes but posted career worsts in AVG/OBP/SLG, and barrel%. For a 34-year-old who’s had a fair share of injuries, Springer’s future is rather uncertain. Is he still a premier bat in the league? Or is he a washed-up corner outfielder whose

What Springer absolutely has going for him is that he will be batting leadoff in one of the better lineups in baseball. He also played 154 games last year, his highest total since 2016, so perhaps his health concerns are past him Springer is concerning, but he’s still an above-average hitter coming into 2024, with a good supporting lineup. There will be ample opportunities for both RBIs and Runs, which makes his case a much easier sell. Plus, if his stolen base numbers can sustain themselves, he quietly is a sneaky stolen base threat, giving him additional value, even if the bat has lagged behind.

The aging curve is certainly working against him, but there’s likely still gas in the tank for Springer.

VERDICT: RUSTED

 

Chris Sale 

 

The all-time leader in strikeouts-per-nine,  2023 Chris Sale threw his most innings in a season since 2019, that’s good! 2023 Chris Sale also had a 4.30 ERA and threw just 102.2 innings, that’s bad! Sale, who will be 35 at the end of March, came into 2023 having thrown fewer than 50 innings total over the past three seasons, with a Covid opt-out and numerous injuries and subsequent setbacks causing Sale’s contract to be somewhat of an albatross. Despite finally being able to pitch significant innings for the Red Sox last year, they shipped him off to Atlanta, where he should be a part of not only one of the stronger rotations in baseball but possibly the best roster in baseball.

You know who Chris Sale is: the tall, slender, lefty power pitcher whose slider/fastball combo propelled him to six straight top-five Cy Young finishes. The good news is Chris Sale’s arsenal is largely unchanged – perhaps a tick down from his peak in the mid-2010s – but still above average, and Sale can crank it up to the high 90s, check out this 98 mph fastball from last year:

After a truly abysmal April where Sale’s ERA bloated to 6.75, his next five starts were excellent, allowing just eight earned runs over 29.2 innings for an ERA of 2.43. However, he went to the IL in early June with a shoulder issue, which kept him out of the rotation for two months. Upon his return, Sale still was able to be productive, but the ace-like upside we saw in May was all but gone. Instead, Sale was plagued with wavering velo and wavering results. His sub-4.00 ERA was certainly adequate but diminished stuff limited his performance.

While Sale was looking like his former self in May, he couldn’t quite recapture that form in the back half, evidenced by his velo drop-off:

In spring training this year, Sale has largely looked like how he did in spring of last season, flashing 97 mph on the gun. Sale will also be going from arguably the worst defense in baseball to one of the best and should be given more of a chance to acquire wins. Admittedly, I’m not totally sold on the health, but on a rate basis, Sale should solidly be an above-average pitcher in 2024

VERDICT: Trusted