It’s happened to all of us. We see the shiny new toy. We want it. We’ve never played with it before. It looks awesome. The possibilities are endless because they are unknown. But is that always a good thing?
Yes and no. If you look back across some of the higher-profiled prospects in recent years, some of them have turned into true game-changers and dynasty baseball cornerstones. Bobby Witt. Jr. Corbin Carroll. Julio Rodriguez. Heck, even looking at last year you see names like Paul Skenes, Jackson Merrill, and Jackson Chourio.
But sometimes those young players don’t pan out how we want them to. Nate Pearson. Andrew Vaughn. Dylan Carlson. Gavin Lux. Suddenly, players that you looked at as building blocks are roster fillers.
There’s nothing wrong with chasing the upside, but sometimes it’s the reliable veterans that can get you a championship. It’s easy to overlook the consistent and the boring.
Let’s take a look at some veterans (minimum five years of MLB experience) that could be undervalued heading into 2025. Some of these players are bounce-back candidates, while others are simply consistent producers.
Kyle Schwarber, UT, PHI
There’s a good chance Schwarber’s value will take a hit this offseason, especially in dynasty startups. He’s lost his outfield eligibility, appearing in the outfield in just five games in 2024. That right there will give many pause when looking at Schwarber—it’s never fun having someone clog up your Utility spot.
That being said, there haven’t been many power bats in Schwarber’s league. Since the start of 2022, he’s belted 131 home runs. That’s third best in all of baseball, trailing only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. During that span he’s also ranked sixth in runs scored and sixth in RBIs. He’s not a base stealer, but he will swipe a couple of bags across the season. His .221 batting average during that time period can be a deterrent, but he gets a big boost if you are playing in OBP or OPS leagues.
This isn’t meant to convince you that Schwarber is some hidden gem—you already know he is a good hitter. But it’s probably a bit surprising just how good his counting stats have been in recent years, and that’s not going to change anytime soon. Schwarber is going to hit at the top of one the best lineups in the sport and knock out around 40 home runs. As UT-only player in his early 30s, he’s going to slide down dynasty rankings, but maybe he shouldn’t. His game should continue to age nicely and perhaps we hit the jackpot and he starts getting the occasional game in the outfield.
Randy Arozarena, OF, SEA
This pick is banking on a bounce back season. Even in a down year, though, Arozarena demonstrated his consistency, netting his fourth consecutive 20-20 season. He is one of just three players to log a 20-20 season in each campaign since 2021 (Trea Turner and Jose Ramirez are the others), and while he barely met the criteria this season (he had exactly 20 home runs and exactly 20 steals), there aren’t many players that bankable for power and speed.
The flip side here is that 2024 was objectively Arzoarena’s worst season. He hit a career-worst .219 at the plate, and his strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction compared to the previous season. So the question becomes whether or not you believe that Arozarena’s 2024 was the beginning of a decline, or just a bad-luck blip.
Either is certainly possible, especially with Arozarena entering his age-30 season. But there’s enough under the hood here to believe that the outfielder will bounce back enough in 2025 to make him worthwhile for your dynasty teams. Arozarena logged a career-worst .275 BABIP last season, after averaging a .332 clip the previous three years. That number probably bounces back toward his norms, even if they don’t reach his career highs. He started pulling the ball and hitting fly balls at a career-high rate in 2024 (RAYS!), so it’s very possible this suppressed his BABIP. His batting average with Seattle, while still not what we were used to, ticked up to .231.
Overall, a .240 average with a good OBP and another 20-20 season is certainly in play for Arozarena. That’s not going to be the star of your fantasy team, but it can definitely add some stability to it. He feels like a strong bet to outperform his ADP.
Bryan Reynolds, OF, PIT
Now that he’s entering his age-30 season, Reynolds perfectly fits the boring but consistent veteran mold.
Here are the home run totals for Reynolds in each of the last four seasons: 24, 27, 24, 24. Across those four seasons, he’s totaled 325 runs and 324 RBIs, averaging about 81 of each per year, while triple slashing .276/.352/.472. His 2024 numbers fell right into place with those averages—last season, Reynolds hit .275 with 24 home runs, with 73 runs and 88 RBIs. He also chipped in 10 steals. Among outfielders, that ranked him 10th in home runs, 33rd in runs, eighth in RBIs, 12th in batting average, and 28th in steals.
So overall—you know what you are going to get with Reynolds. He’s a hitter that is going to be pretty good in every category, but not great in any of them. That’s helpful, but boring. It’s easy for managers to focus on the latter while ignoring the former. At age-30, Reynolds should have a few more years of performing at this type of level. The Pirates are certainly confident that he will—Reynolds signed a deal in 2023 that locks him up through the 2030 season. So while Pittsburgh may not be the most exciting of lineups to be a part of, it’s comforting knowing that you have a good hitter that’s going to be hitting in the middle of a lineup for the foreseeable future.
Seth Lugo, P, KCR
Now that we’ve looked at a few bats, let’s head to the mound. You’ve probably already forgotten, but Lugo just finished second in the AL Cy Young race. That’s nuts! It’s not undeserving either, as the right hander recorded a 3.00 ERA across 33 starts and 206.2 innings. He tossed the second-most innings in all of baseball, trailing only Logan Gilbert, and his 181 strikeouts landed him 19th overall on the season. His 16 wins (tied for third overall) didn’t hurt either.
Long story short is that if you were a Lugo fantasy manager this past season, you were very happy with the return. Will he be able to replicate his success in 2025 and beyond? That remains to be seen. And while it’s probably unlikely he produces at a Cy Young contender level, it’s very realistic that he will be a stable contributor for teams. After all, he returned to a starter’s role in 2023 and put together a very solid campaign, with a 3.57 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 146 innings.
Looking at all of the factors and Lugo becomes a prime dynasty target, especially for contenders. Heading into 2025, Lugo is not going to have a high-ADP, especially for someone that is coming off a season where he was one of the most valuable pitchers in the sport. A large reason for that is his perceived lack of ceiling. His 21.7% strikeout rate is considerably lower than the high-end arms, and it’s not likely that he’s going to see a major uptick in that category as he turns 35. But Lugo makes up for that by eating innings—as mentioned before, he ranked in the top 20 in total strikeouts, above players with better strikeout rates simply because he throws more frames. Toss in that he plays for a good team and the path to 15+ wins again is easy to see.
A 35-year-old may not be the consensus best buy in dynasty leagues, but that should make him even easier to acquire. It’s common in dynasty for managers to overvalue youth and ceiling, so guys like Lugo can be had for much less than their actual worth. Lugo is never going to be viewed as a building block or franchise cornerstone for dynasty teams at this point in his career, but he should be valued as a reliable arm.
Sonny Gray, P, STL
A good chunk of what is written above about Lugo can be transported to the section about Gray. Gray is entering his 12th MLB season, and at 35-years-old he’s not exactly entering the prime of his career.
Or is he?
Gray tossed 166.1 frames in 2024 and posted a 24.4% K-BB rate. That’s the best mark of his career, which is saying something for an arm that has been one of the most reliable across the last decade. It’s possible that fact will get lost in the shuffle when discussing Gray’s 2024—his 3.84 ERA was his second-worst mark since 2018, and his home run rate jumped from a minuscule 5.2% in 2023 to 14.3% in 2024. A surface-level look and it could be easy to disregard Gray and believe that he’s starting to decline. But his FIP (3.70) and xFIP (2.82) were both significantly better than his ERA, and both marks ranked in the top 10 amongst all qualified pitchers. The xFIP was second in all of baseball.
The Cardinals signed Gray to a three-year deal in the 2024 offseason, but there have been rumors that he may be traded winter. If he does, he’s likely to go to a contender and that will only help his chances at more wins.