Hello and welcome back to using PLA to evaluate pitchers! This series uses PLA, along with other run expectancy metrics, to break down results and better understand the process behind them.
This week, I will be taking a look at another few starting pitchers recently announced to be all-stars in 2026. For some more details on PLA and what goes into PLV scores, be sure to check out Nick Pollack and Kyle Bland’s breakdown here.
Foster Griffin
| PLA | ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA |
| 3.15 | 2.77 | 3.84 | 4.02 | 3.54 | 3.58 |
Foster Griffin is a first-time All-Star in 2026, boasting a 2.77 ERA through 19 starts/110.1 innings in his first full season of work in the Major Leagues. Formerly the first-round pick in 2014 by the Royals, Griffin struggled throughout the upper minors before blossoming in the NPB, earning him a one-year, $5.5 million contract with the Nationals. Griffin has shown that deal to be quite the bargain so far in 2026.
| CT | FF | ST | CH | CU | SI | FS | |
| Usage% | 32 | 17 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 6 |
| PLV | 5.40 | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.57 | 4.93 | 4.62 | 4.51 |
| Run Value | 13 | -2 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 | -1 |
Griffin’s primary key to this success has come from his new cutter, thrown at 88.2 mph on average with 5 inches of glove-side break and a .184 BAA. Hitters also whiff at his changeup (34.2) and sweeper (34.2) a good amount, as his slow four-seam/sinker pairing has been “good enough” to support his myriad of secondaries.
Lefties are batting just .149 with a .289 against Griffin, thanks to 20 inches of separation between his cutter/sinker and a sweeper with 17.1 inches of glove-side break. Griffin has also had enough secondaries to mix in against righties to keep them batting .233/.395, around league average, but his cutter has been the main weapon.
Overall, Griffin’s 3.15 PLA is slightly worse than his 2.77 ERA, and in line with ERA estimators like xFIP (3.54) and SIERA (3.58). Griffin’s .241 BABIP and 84.0% strand rate are likely to regress a bit down the line, but he’s managed excellent results so far despite a somewhat unlucky 15.6% home run to fly ball rate. Look for Griffin to sustain his Major League breakout by continuing to limit walks and avoid barrels when possible post-ASB in 2026.
Joe Ryan
| PLA | ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA |
| 2.43 | 2.85 | 3.20 | 2.77 | 3.47 | 3.24 |
Joe Ryan will make his second consecutive All-Star Game in 2026, continuing to make incremental improvements to his underrated profile while anchoring a young Twins pitching staff. Prior to the ASB, Ryan has made a league-leading 20 starts, trailing only Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease in fWAR for American League pitchers.
| FF | ST | FS | CU | SI | SL | |
| Usage% | 45 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 7 |
| PLV | 5.34 | 5.34 | 4.74 | 5.21 | 5.25 | 5.22 |
| Run Value | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 |
Like Griffin, Ryan has a deep arsenal capable of limiting walks and generating enough strikeouts, despite low velocity overall. This remains true for Ryan with an added caveat of his fastball being his best offering; despite averaging just 93.5 mph, his low arm slot and VAA gives the pitch an elite 32.0 CSW% and 69.9% strike rate. His sinker is also used, mostly against righties, and generates called strikes and ground balls at a decent rate.
His sweeper/curveball pairing are also excellent 2-strike options, generating a .190/.155 BAA and 27.8/22.1 PutAway%, respectively. Combined with an excellent off-speed offering in his splitter and a solid bridge to his bigger breaking balls in his slider, Ryan has the arsenal of an ace.
This is reflected in his 2.43 PLA, one of the best I’ve looked at, a number slightly better than that of his 3.47 xFIP/3.24 SIERA. Ryan’s immense strike throwing and whiffability makes him a perfect use case for PLA, but a high home run rate has plagued his career. With Ryan having a career-best 7.5% home run to fly ball rate, his ERA might jump a bit against some non-AL Central opponents, but he remains one of the league’s premier starters.
Jesús Luzardo
| PLA | ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA |
| 3.01 | 3.51 | 2.97 | 2.84 | 2.90 | 3.15 |
Jesús Luzardo has had a very strong 2026, bouncing back from a rough start to post a 2.03 ERA/2.77 FIP in his last 11 GS while averaging ~6 IP/start. Despite the early-season ERA inflation, Luzardo’s peripherals have looked consistently excellent as he earns his first career All-Star nod.
| ST | FF | CH | SI | |
| Usage% | 37 | 25 | 20 | 17 |
| PLV | 4.97 | 4.91 | 5.11 | 5.54 |
| Run Value | 10 | -4 | 2 | 4 |
Luzardo’s profile is that of consistency and power. When he’s on, his command allows him to generate whiffs, ground balls, and weak contact, all while living in the strike zone and generating chases when needed with his sweeper. Despite its mediocre 4.97 PLV, likely hurt by its 35.6% zone rate, his ridiculous 38.4 CSW% and .131 BAA on the pitch makes it elite and the lynchpin of his arsenal.
Luzardo utilizes his sweeper/four-seam/change against righties while going mostly sweeper/sinker against lefties. The latter have just a 26.8% strikeout minus walk rate, and while righties have made more loud contact, most of which contributed to his poor start to the season, he remains effective against both sides.
If anything, this gives Luzardo some volatility against righty-heavy lineups deep in games. While his stuff is above average, a four-pitch arsenal as a starter has become shallow in recent years, and presents risk once seen by the same batter a few times in a game.
Still, Luzardo’s 3.01 PLA is above average, yet slightly worse than his 2.90 xFIP/3.15 SIERA. The only signs of regression are positive, in that of his .330 BABIP, which has been somewhat consistent in each of his last few healthy seasons, so Luzardo’s results seem fairly normal vs. expected. From a fantasy perspective, I would still be aware of the blow up risk that has raised his ERA from an elite level to just above average.
