The discussion around lineup construction will always be a fascinating one. The lineup is one of the few aspects of baseball where the manager still generally has complete control despite the growing sizes of front offices and analytics departments. Even though The Book has a well-defined idea of the optimized lineup, its integration into the manager’s lineup card has been slow. A manager is often steadfast about their way of construction, whether it be a traditional lineup or something like Joe Maddon’s infamous mix-and-match approach. Beyond the analytics purview, most fans will clamor about a lineup change after a single poor week from a player, and this can be the main criticism of a manager on a struggling team.
While the lineup construction is important, the lineup quality is equally, if not more, important. Having the players in the right spot at the right time can turn a good lineup into a great lineup or vice versa. I was listening to an episode of The Roundtable where Sam Miller posed the question: is baseball a strong or weak link problem? More aptly put, Is it the quality of the top or bottom of your roster that drives success?
Lineup construction & quality are essential parts of baseball that can answer this question. It also exists on the pitching side, but I’m looking at offense in this piece. With Spring Training storylines such as the Yankees 3B situation or the Astros’ outfield, there’s been significant public discourse around how much a high-end bat can carry an offense (see Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez).
I took all team wRC+ from the last ten years (2015-2024) and sorted it by top third, middle third, and bottom third of the lineup. Since wRC+ is environment-adjusted, I can compare wRC+ for all years and lineup sections. I also factored in the entire team’s runs scored for that season and compared it to the average runs scored that year, so it can also be environment-adjusted.
The average top-six hitters in a lineup are above league average, but there’s a steep dropoff to the bottom third of the lineup that’s almost two standard deviations from the mean (97 wRC+). Even with a large gap to the bottom, the performance of the bottom of the lineup is still significant for a good lineup.
Since 2015, there have been 24 offenses that were 100+ runs better than league average. These are the elite offenses, since there were around 2-4 each year (excluding 2020). Teams with only the absolute best offenses in baseball hit the 100+ run threshold. Comparing those lineups to the rest of the sample, something interesting stands out.
While the best lineups excel from elite hitters at the top of the lineup, they also have a significantly stronger bottom third of the lineup than the middle. A +15 wRC+ puts the bottom third at a 93 wRC+, which is still below average but enough to help the lineup turnover consistently.
Six lineups were 100+ runs better than the league average and had a below-average section: 2016 Rockies, 2018 Red Sox, 2019 Twins, 2019 Red Sox, 2022 Yankees, and 2024 Yankees. Three teams had a middle segment that was below average (2019 Twins, 2022 Yankees, and 2024 Yankees), and three teams had a bottom segment that was below average (2016 Rockies, 2018 Red Sox, and 2019 Red Sox). While Juan Soto and Aaron Judge highlighted the Yankees’ top-heavy lineup in 2024, the criticism for the weak lineup was highlighted by a struggling middle third. The bottom of the lineup was above-average, which helped it perform better than people might’ve thought.
Across all lineups, the differences between the best and worst lineups unsurprisingly come from the depth.
The top 25% are significantly better across the board, creating more runs from all spots in the lineup. But it’s the top of the lineup that keeps an offense good. Of the 46 top-thirds of lineups, at least one standard deviation was better than the average, and only six were below-average overall offenses. Three of those were Mike Trout-led Angels teams.
Topline talent keeps the lineup moving, but this exercise also identified the underrated offenses in baseball. Not many people realize that the third-place Arizona Diamondbacks had the best offense in baseball last year, with 886 runs scored. While they had a strong top and middle of the lineup, the bottom third was 22 wRC+ better than average, making it the best section of their lineup. So even when the top of the lineup wasn’t star-studded, it was a machine that operated hitters 1-9.
There’s also last year’s Brewers, which were around average throughout the top six hitters but was a similar 22 wRC+ better than average in the bottom third. This makes an unassuming lineup challenging to get through, where there isn’t ever an “easy” section for a pitcher.
Having topline talent is essential to get a lineup going, but having strong 7-9 hitters keeps the lineup moving.
A Brief Look at 2025 Lineups
I also wanted to glance at the proposed 2025 lineups since most rosters are set ahead of Opening Day. While imperfect, using Roster Resource’s projected lineups and Fangraphs’ Depth Charts projections can identify the lineups that stand out coming into the season. It doesn’t capture full plate appearances or platoons and includes current injuries (i.e. Gunnar Henderson isn’t included in Baltimore’s lineup). Since their projected wRC+ seems to run hot, below is the same comparison of wRC+ against the average.
The Mets, Astros, and Padres all appear to have top-heavy lineups among contenders. The Astros outfield has been notably thin (hence the attempts to put Jose Altuve out there), and the Padres no longer have the constant ability to add to their lineup with all of their large contracts in the middle of the order. Interestingly, the Mets have a weak bottom third of the lineup with all sorts of questions in center field and at second base. Even though they added their $765M man in Juan Soto, their light lineup and pitching problems could create problems competing in an air-tight NL East.
On the contrary, Yankees fans worrying about their third base situation might not need to worry as much as they are (what’s new, Yankees fans), as they have one of the deepest lineups at face value in baseball. I also think this puts the Blue Jays, Rays, and Athletics as underrated offenses. There’s more depth on these three teams than many people might anticipate, which could create an interesting five-way battle in the AL East and a sleeper in the AL West.
