As the biggest-name position player on the market behind Juan Soto, who earned 765 million from the Mets, star third baseman Alex Bregman seemed poised for a massive contract this offseason. MLB Trade rumors predicted he would get seven years at $182 million, yet he ended up signing with the Red Sox in mid-February for only $120 million over three years. Though he had a longer deal from the Tigers, Bregman’s decision to take a shorter deal with an opt-out after each year and to hold out so late shows that the options on the table were below his own expectations as well as ours. Even more strange, the team that eventually ended up winning the bidding war for Bregman was one that already has a star third baseman, Rafael Devers, who was reluctant to move off the position.
Bregman has had an illustrious career. He has accumulated almost 40 WAR through his age 30 season, enhancing a resume that includes two All-Star selections, a gold glove, silver slugger, and two championship rings. However, a recent decline has raised concerns about the longevity of what MLB teams seemed to deem a risky investment. A passive approach, Crawford Box-reliant success, and a steep decline in walk rate made teams bearish on Bregman this offseason.
Bregman has maintained such a high level of performance throughout his career with exceptionally high plate discipline and the ability to put balls in the air and pull them. From 2023-2024, he was in an exclusive group of three players who walked more than they struck out in both seasons. In those two years, Bregman’s 13% BB% and 11.9% K% were eighth and sixth best in baseball, respectively, among qualified hitters. In that time, he put up a 131 wRC+ and a 9.9 fWAR. However, his 2024 season suggests that that plan may not be as reliable as it has been in the past.
This past season, pitchers, partly because of an increase in pitchers with excellent stuff and partly because of new thinking, are challenging hitters a lot more often. Pitchers were especially more aggressive against Bregman, increasing their zone% from around 42.9% and 43.8% in 2022 and 2023 to 47.5%% in 2024. In response, Bregman started swinging more, posting the highest swing% of his career since his rookie season in 2016. But this aggressiveness ballooned his O-swing%, which had been under 21% since 2018 to 25.1%. As a result, his BB% and OBP plummeted to a below-average 6.9% and .315 OBP. If pitchers continue this trend, which seems likely, it’s reasonable to wonder whether Bregman has lost the most valuable and consistent part of his game. The thing that would deter pitchers is his power, which may not be as potent as it once was.
Bregman doesn’t have and never had “light tower power.” He’s only 5’11”, 190 LBS, and doesn’t hit the moonshots that make a team confident their HR power will endure through some aging, like Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani. Yet, he’s consistently posted 20+ HR seasons despite a low Barrel%, using his exceptional ability to elevate the ball and then pull those elevated balls. There’s a concern that as he ages and his bat slows, he may struggle to get around on velocity and maintain his high pull%. This trend may already be starting: Bregman’s 2024 pullair% was 20% down from a career 23.5% mark. He also saw more fastballs than he had in four years and posted the second-lowest SLG and pull% of his career on them. That is the part of his game that is expected to deteriorate; however, if he isn’t able to maintain his phenomenal approach and BB/K, his aging curve could be much steeper.
With these concerns in mind, the Red Sox made a lot more sense as the team that was willing to spend on Bregman. The famous Green Monster is perfect for Bregman’s pulled fly ball-heavy offensive profile. Bregman’s going from Houston hitter-friendly Crawford Boxes to an even more hitter-friendly left-field feature. Even if his home runs don’t increase from Houston, many of his left-field warning track flyouts will become doubles. For what it’s worth, Fenway is also Bregman’s favorite AL park to hit in. He’s posted a 1.240 OPS there in 98 plate appearances.
Less obviously, Bregman is also a perfect fit at the top of Boston’s lineup and in their clubhouse. Boston’s two top hitters, Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers, are both lefties who crush fastballs. Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, and Triston Casas, who may likely fill 3 of the top 4 lineup slots, are all lefties who posted a SLG well above .500 against fastballs last year. As a righty breaking ball hitter, Bregman is the perfect foil to these powerful lefties. Last season, Bregman posted a higher SLG on breaking balls and offspeed pitches than on fastballs, which is reversed for most players. If Bregman can’t catch up to some fireballers, Boston’s other top hitters will pick up the slack. And Bregman will make opposing managers think twice about bringing in breaking ball specialists to face the top of the order.
Finally, Bregman is known for his great clubhouse presence and leadership skills, and Boston has a talented young position player group. Baseball America named the Red Sox as the best farm system in baseball, and top prospects Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer could all take their first major league at bat in the next year. Additionally, with Masataka Yoshida injured, journeyman utilityman Rob Refsnyder and Trevor Story are the only other Red Sox batters older than 29. Rafael Devers is the only other position player with more than two full seasons in the MLB. With his 2 rings and 434 postseason plate appearances, Bregman can be a valuable mentor in the inexperienced and talented Red Sox clubhouse.
