This week, we’ll survey some hitters and two pitchers who seem decent buy-low targets. I’m generally looking for hitters who are making good swing decisions while adding power but not quite getting the results that you’d expect. Our approximate benchmarks for sample size are 400 pitches for DV, 200 swings for contact ability, and 75 BBE for power. For Pitchers, PLV and PLA stabilize at around 500 pitches.
If you’re new to PLV metrics, you can find Nick’s primer here. All the metrics are normalized to 100. Decision Value (DV) has also been further broken down this season into zDV (inside the zone) and oDV (outside the zone).
Note: Stats and PLV data are current through Monday, June 10th.
1,176 Pitches | 71 IP
PabLo is sporting a 5.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP after another stinker against the Yankees. However, a quick look below the surface reveals a 20.7% K-BB% not too far from last year’s 23.2%. Better yet, his 2.63 PLA is lower than last year’s 2.92.
Part of the issue might be his changeup command (above); he’s throwing it for strikes less frequently this year with a 60.4% strike rate vs. 66.3% last year when he pegged the outside corner to LHB more consistently. Accordingly, we’ve seen its PLV Loc+ dip from 108 to about average at 99. Still, this isn’t anything egregious, and I think it’s also something that might correct itself. More importantly, his overall pitch quality points to better days ahead.
1,079 pitches | 66.2 IP
Nick highlighted Ober in a recent roundup, so we’ll keep it short. PLV adores Ober’s changeup and cutter locations. No, he’s not Oberrated.
Springer is a mixed bag; he’s making terrific swing decisions but his power has seemingly gone AWOL. I’m torn. I usually target proven hitters who are swinging at good pitches to hit. However, seeing Springer’s average EV down 2.3 MPH is jarring, especially considering his power was already below average last year at 93. Still, I think he’s worth mentioning because of his swing decisions. Hey, at the very least, he should be cheap to acquire.
Brandon Lowe doesn’t have the requisite swings and pitches faced we typically look for, but, hey, sometimes we have to cut corners in the middle of the season. He is 23% rostered on Yahoo, so there’s a decent chance he might be lurking on your wire. Like Springer, he’s making exceptional swing decisions. However, unlike Springer, he’s showing good pop. As someone who banged 39 dingers during his lone full season two years ago, a B. Lowe bounceback is somewhat intriguing. Now, let’s hope he can stay off the IL.
Martinez’s hasn’t caught fire in Queens, hitting .271 with a .767 OPS through 156 PA. That’s not bad at all but there’s reason to believe he can kick it into another gear. PLV adores his swing decisions inside the zone, and he’s also adding a ton of power suggesting he can still be a difference-maker in the HR and RBI departments. He’s the sort of bat you could probably get for next to nothing in a dynasty league. Also, I wonder if he might find himself on another team at the deadline.
Heat Check: Heliot Ramos
Good luck buying Ramos now; he’s posted a 1.131 OPS over his last dozen games as one of the hottest young hitters in baseball. A quick heat-check reveals legit power. His only blemish is having below-average contact, but that’s offset by exceptional Strikezone Judgement paired with above-average oDV. He’s done well overall (you don’t say) but there’s also a fair amount of blue in the top half of his contact heat map, which might spell trouble ahead.
Cold Check: Jo Adell
For a moment, it looked like Jo Adell might’ve figured it out, but his contact ability has bottomed out, sending him back to the wire in many leagues.
Still, I’m interested to see if he can dig out of it because he’s adding a ton of power, nearly two standard deviations above the average (99th percentile swing speed).
Deep League Waiver Wire
Kyle Bland previously highlighted Andrew McCutchen (940 pitches, 137 BBE) but let’s cue the Undertaker GIF once more for the 2015 NL MVP. He’s showcasing great swings and takes (130 DV) while adding exceptional power (123). Maybe he’s not someone you roster all year but there’s no reason he can’t be a solid stopgap, especially with the Pirates headed to Coors this weekend.
Let’s bang the drum again for Nick Senzel (587 pitches, 99 BBE), and by drum I mean imitate one of those little toy monkeys with the cymbals. The former Reds prospect has a .958 OPS over his last dozen games. He’s demonstrated good swings and takes (123 DV) with slightly above-average pop (105). It’s not exciting but he’s playing every day. Sometimes that’s all it takes.
Well, someone has to play for the White Sox, and that someone is Paul DeJong (767 pitches, 122 BBE) who has come alive with a .953 OPS over his last dozen games. He’s still got power in his bat (121) but his contact ability (76) and tendency to expand the zone (90 oDV) means that he’s the sort who could go cold at the drop of a hat. Yeah, that sounds like the DeJong we knew back in St. Louis.
Again, sometimes just finding players with increased opportunity is the name of the game. On that note, can I interest you in another White Sox? Former Astros farmhand Corey Julks has emerged as their leadoff man hitting .282 with a .847 OPS and .369 wOBA over 79 PA. He’s shown average-ish power (103), DV (103), and above-average contact (111). He’s been a little passive (-6.7% Sw aggression) so he could be a decent fill-in for OBP leagues.
Yes, he’s not going to play against left-handers, but I still think Joc Pederson (736 pitches, 105 BBE) should be on your radar. He’s shown above-average contact (105) and power (109); the latter has been trending up. His career .355 wOBA, 126 wRC+, and .835 OPS against RHP makes him a discount Kyle Schwarber in daily leagues.
Will be interesting to see what happens to Julks’ playing time with both Benintendi and Pham due off the IL this week, and Eloy also on the way (though deadline trades could create more opportunities later).