Every week, the Pitcher List team will publish an update to our power rankings, reviewing the biggest risers and fallers of the past seven days. This time, we are previewing each team’s outlook for the upcoming season. As always, the full rankings can be found at the bottom of this article … but where’s the fun in that?
Movin’ On Up
Record: 84-74
Rank change: +3 (13 to 10)
The Tigers had less than a one percent chance of making the playoffs on August 1. Now they are tied with Kansas City at 84-74 and would play in the Wild Card round if the season ended today. With just four games remaining, including three against the White Sox, Detroit’s playoff hopes are looking bright.
It helps when you have arguably the best starting pitcher in the game. Tarik Skubal has the third-best xFIP (2.83) and the fifth-best K/9 (10.69) among all qualified pitchers. He is also fifth in BB/9 (1.64), sixth in HR/9 (0.60), and second in WAR (5.9). American League Cy Young seems likely for the 27-year-old. Detroit doesn’t even have another qualified starter in their rotation. They traded away Jack Flaherty, who was having a stellar season, to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, and the only other pitchers with more than 20 starts are Reese Olson and Casey Mize. Neither have numbers that jump off the page. The Tigers’ bullpen has been precisely league-average, with a collective xFIP of 4.02.
The offense is what excites me the most. Detroit has one of the youngest starting lineups in baseball. The average age is 26.9 years, making only the Washington Nationals roster younger than them. Riley Greene has been a stud for them this season, ranking second in wRC+ (137), wOBA (.359), and ISO (.221). The only one ahead of him in those categories is Kerry Carpenter. However, the latter has only played in 84 games to Greene’s 133. Parker Meadows has popped off the stat sheet over the last few months, recording a better wOBA (.358) and wRC+ (136) than Greene since August 1. Spencer Torkelson was the first overall selection four years ago but has bounced around the minors this year and hasn’t had the most productive season. The upside for him is immense, however, and Detroit is going to need his bat to make a deep October run.
With an extremely top-heavy rotation and a highly inexperienced lineup, it’s fair to wonder about the Tigers’ chances this year. However, they’re one of the most fun stories in baseball right now, and I would love to see them spark some magic and get A.J. Hinch a second ring as skipper.
Hittin’ the Skids
Record: 84-74
Rank change: -3 (10 to 13)
When people think of the Kansas City Royals, they likely think of Bobby Witt Jr. The 24-year-old is having an MVP season, ranking fourth in wRC+ (169), fourth in wOBA (.411), and seventh in ISO (.261) on the year. He also has just the 16th-lowest K% (14.9%) and is behind only Aaron Judge in WAR (10.2). He also placed second in the home run derby, for what it’s worth.
The problem with the Royals lineup is that it falls off a cliff after Witt. Vinnie Pasquantino was having a solid season but was lost to a thumb injury in late August and doesn’t seem likely to return this year. 34-year-old Salvador Perez is second on this team in wRC+ (116) and has delivered a solid 27 homers on the year. His World Series ring from 2015 would give this team some veteran experience in the postseason, but they are going to need to find some production from the rest of their order. Kansas City is also cold at the worst time. They are currently 3-7 over their last 10 games.
Pitching for the Royals has been good. They have an ace in Cole Ragans, and the unexpected surge from Seth Lugo and quality season from Brady Singer have been a nice supporting cast. Ragans has been a dominant strikeout artist this year, ranking fourth amongst qualified pitchers in K/9 (10.77). His 3.46 xFIP puts him inside the top 15 in the league as well. 34-year-old Lugo helped in a big way, earning his first All-Star selection and sporting a 16-9 record. His previous highest number of wins was last season when he had eight with the Padres. Kansas City’s bullpen has not been very good this year. They rank 25th in MLB with a collective 4.33 xFIP.
The fact that the Tigers draw the White Sox for their last series while the Royals draw Atlanta does not add to the optimism of Kansas City. There has been a big momentum shift in the AL Central this month, and it’s not in the Royals’ favor.