ERA is one of the most important stats in the world of pitching, if not the most important. Yes, the analytic models have shown that it is incredibly sticky and that it can lack context, but at the end of the day, there are plenty of reasons to keep it in mind when managing your pitching. ERA shows results, and good results are what we want from pitchers.
Predicting good ERAs comes down to your knowledge of pretty much every component of a pitcher’s game. You really need to get a feel for a pitcher to have a good idea of what their ERA will look like moving forward. ERA is dependent on strikeout rates, walk rates, WHIP, groundball/flyball rates, team defense (both infield and outfield) and various park factors. There are a lot of moving parts to it, which makes it one of the most fun stats to try to project out, although also one of the most difficult.
So to help you build a fantasy rotation, here are a few pitchers who will be available in the later rounds who should be able to give you a solid ERA in 2025.
All ADP Data is via NFBC
Reese Olson – 266.44 ADP
Now some people might view this as cheating, as pitchers generally go a little later than hitters, and thus, it’s debatable if this really is a late-round slot for a pick. I’ll give you one extra pick because of this, just because I feel bad. If you aren’t in on Olson yet though, consider this a sign to get in, as there is plenty to love about him going into the 2025 season.
Reese Olson has a lot of potential to be one of the bigger steals in 2025. There is a bit of risk to it, as the young Olson does not have a long track record. After all, his career high in innings was last year with 112, so we really haven’t seen too much of him to know what we’re going to get.
Yet, the capability to be a trusted pitcher in your leagues is absolutely there.
The Tigers present an incredible situation for any pitcher who wants to keep their ERA down (a.k.a all of them). Comerica Park is a pitcher’s paradise and the team was seventh in Outs Above Average last year. While it’s not quite a Seattle situation, the Tigers present an opportunity for pitchers to get the absolute best out of their arsenal in terms of results.
Olson is one of the sport’s premier Slidermen. He relies on it as his primary pitch, and for good reason. It grades out quite well, earning swings and misses against lefties and groundballs against righties. His changeup is also a really good offering, as it drops down the trapdoor on its way to reaching the batter. The big question with Olson is whether he can have the same success with his higher velocity pitches. He harnesses a four-seamer against lefties and a sinker against righties, and neither has seen sustained success. This can partially be attributed to his questionable command, as the scatterplots of these pitches (especially the four-seamer) paint very messy pictures. If he can locate better, perhaps he can make up for his sub-par heater stuff.
Either way, the pieces are there for Olson. He’s on a winning team and is in a ballpark/team defense situation that will allow him to earn better results than he would in other organizations.
Reese Olson’s slider has proven to be one of the more underrated offerings in baseball.
Merrill Kelly – 300.18 ADP
Remember Merrill Kelly? Well you should. If you read our recent late-round targets article on wins, he would definitely be in your mind. We’ll keep it quick here, as there’s already been plenty of gushing about Kelly, and for good reason.
Last year was a rough ride, with injuries limiting the usually valuable workhorse to just 73 and two-thirds innings. This shouldn’t deter you from picking Kelly, as there are few arms as primed for a bounceback.
When looking for ERA-based targets in late rounds, it’s often valuable to look at certain context factors affecting their performance. Among the most important of these? Defense. The Diamondbacks have an exceptionally elite defensive core. In 2024, they finished with the highest overall Outs Above Average of any National League team, finishing only behind the Royals in MLB overall.
Even in a season marred by hardship like last year, Kelly still showcased that his changeup is still one of the best among right-handed pitchers. Kelly is primed for a huge bounceback, one that will help lead the Diamondbacks to a better record and your fantasy teams to glory.
David Peterson – 367.99
Quick! Without looking, tell me David Peterson’s 2024 ERA! Unless you’re a Mets fan (or are just ridiculously plugged in), you might not have realized that it was below 3.00 last year. In 121 innings, Peterson put up a 2.90 ERA, a seriously impressive mark for a pitcher who was in the 5.00s the year before. Now, in Spring Training, we’ve seen Peterson carry the momentum from last year into his matchups, as he’s looked poised and ready to help his Mets this season.
There have been some question marks about Peterson’s role with the team moving forward, as the Mets do have some options for their rotation. Unfortunately, many of these options won’t be ready by opening day, which puts the pressure on Peterson, who seems to have locked in a middle-of-the-rotation role with the team.
The underlying numbers aren’t super in on Peterson. His stuff isn’t extraordinary in the velocity department, though he is an extension darling which makes up for it somewhat. His sinker has been a pretty effective pitch, as it’s a big reason why he has one of the highest groundball rates of any starter in the majors. There’s a blueprint for him to perfectly execute his offspeed stuff as well, as he throws the slider to lefties for pretty good results and the changeup to lefties for mixed results. If he is able to command the slowball better, he will see more consistency and possibly a repeat of last season’s ERA.
It’s not always the greatest idea to make decisions based on past performance, but something can be said about a pitcher who put up an incredibly low ERA the prior season. There’s a good chance he regresses, but maybe he can carry the momentum and become one of the better “safe” pitchers for fantasy baseball.
Luis L. Ortiz – 393.02 ADP
There is always a level of intrigue when a pitcher joins an organization like Cleveland with a history of getting the most out of their pitching. Luis L. Ortiz is no exception, as even though he is leaving a great ballpark situation in Pittsburgh, this opportunity to be a key cog for a team with winning aspirations could be great for his career. It feels like he was knocking on that door a bit last year, as he managed to string together some pretty useful starts down the stretch. He’s also shown major improvements across his career, as he bounced back from a horrific season under-the-hood in 2023 and put up a very respectable 2024.
The reason why Ortiz has the potential to be an ERA pick is because he is pretty good at limiting contact. He doesn’t give up excellent contact often on any of his offerings, which makes him a pretty safe bet to prevent runs at a relatively decent clip. He’s not an attractive pick here, but he there’s the potential for a really reliable arm if you nab him here.
Dustin May – 412.92 ADP
It’s pretty shocking that with everything we’ve seen from Dustin May, past and present, that he ends up in an ADP slot below 400. Then again, he’s been one of the most injury-riddled pitchers over the past few years. With an ADP in the 400s though, May is absolutely worth the perceived risk, as he has perhaps the highest ceiling of any pitcher on this list (as well as having one of the highest ceilings of any player in the 400s for ADP).
With question marks at the back end of the Dodgers rotation to start the season, May looks poised to claim his spot as a regular. While the basic numbers in Spring Training don’t look amazing (it’s only been a few innings), he’s shown us plenty to be excited about.
May has two offerings that over the years have made managers, both in fantasy and in real life, salivate. His sinker is without a doubt one of the most disgusting in the bigs. It has incredible run and wipes out right-handed hitters, while still being respectable against lefties. Having an elite, unhittable fast pitch is the key to sustained success, and May has it in spades with the two-seamer. If that doesn’t impress you, then maybe look at his curveball, which has one of the highest spin rates in the major leagues. The results of the pitch have been a little bit all over the map (due to inconsistency with location), but the raw data suggests something that could become impossible to hit, if used correctly in tangent with the rest of the arsenal.
May is shaping up to be one of the most popular sleeper picks this year, but as of now, his ADP still projects him to be a very late round pick. He will definitely be better than many of the pitchers selected above him, even if there is that dreaded injury risk looming over him.
Dustin May’s sinker was absurd when we saw it last.
Mitch Spence – 504.37 ADP
Last year, Mitch Spence was a hit-or-miss streamer pick. In all likelihood, he will probably be that again this year. However, he’s shown some signs of improvement in Spring Training, with a higher velocity cutter leading the charge against the batters he’s faced. This is a great sight to see, especially when you consider the fact that Spence has one of the highest usage rates on his cutter of any pitcher.
One aspect that makes Mitch Spence an intriguing pickup is his ERA estimator stats. His xERA was a respectable 4.14 last year, while his PLA (the PitcherList ERA estimator based on our stat PLV), was 2.57, the 29th best mark among any pitcher qualified in the stat. Similar to many of the other pitchers on this list, Spence is great at obtaining the groundball, which, while yes, can inflate his WHIP, will ultimately help keep the ball in the park and prevent many runs from scoring.
It’s also important to note that Spence was a rookie last year, so now with more experience we could see a much more poised and confident version of Spence.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) | Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire