A starting pitcher’s win-loss record has easily become the most dismissed and disregarded baseball statistic over the past several decades. There are a couple of reasons for this.
First and foremost, win-loss record can be seen as a stat that is too team-dependent. Two hurlers can each complete six innings and give up three runs in the same night in two different ball games, both ending the night with quality starts. Yet one pitcher might be securing a comfortable 10-3 win with his effort and the other a brutal 0-2 loss. Win-loss record is also dependent on all of the other pitchers who come out of the bullpen that evening. There are few more frustrating things in fantasy baseball than watching your starting pitcher leave a game with a lead, only to see that lead squandered by the pen. The quality start is at least carved in stone once the starting pitcher’s line is finished for the night. Not so for those fragile wins, and with fewer and fewer pitchers going deeper into games, the risk is higher than ever. In short, it is the stat that feels most out of the ‘control’ of the player to whom it is being attributed, and for that reason alone, it can be very frustrating.
With that said, win-loss record is a statistic that obviously still does exist in both real and fantasy baseball. While the stat is used less and less as a measure of a pitcher’s actual talent or quality, it is still useful to have pitchers who are known to go out there every five days, throw at least five innings, and leave the game having put their team in a position to win more often than not. Wins, while vexing, are still important. The following starting pitchers should not be overlooked in the later rounds of your drafts if you want relatively cheap ways to get them.
(Note: “Late Round” is being defined as players with a current ADP of 300 or higher)
*All ADP data via NFBC
Merrill Kelly – 309.72 ADP*
2024 (73.2 IP): 5-1 W-L, 4.03 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 63 K
A shoulder injury cost Merrill Kelly plenty of time in 2024 and left him shaking off the rust for most of the remainder of the year. Limited to only 24.2 innings prior to the injury and 49 innings after his return in August, Kelly never seemed to be able to get into much of a rhythm until a four-game stretch in September in which he only gave up six earned runs across 22 innings pitched.
While last season’s sample size is hard to draw conclusions from, Kelly has otherwise been a pretty reliable pitcher in terms of taking the mound every five days.
With a career 53-44 record, Kelly also tends to put his team in a position to win more often than not, fulfilling our main criteria here. He is in a great team environment, as the Diamondbacks had an impressive offseason, adding Corbin Burnes and Josh Naylor to a team that already won 89 games last season and made it to the World Series the year prior.
Although Kelly’s stuff has never jumped off the charts, he mixes six different pitches and keeps the ball in the strike zone, generally limiting walks, which allows him to extend his outings. He is also reported to be fine-tuning his slider this spring, a pitch that saw its usage rise from only 5.5% in 2023 to 11.8% in last year’s small sample size. Kelly was able to generate an impressive whiff rate of 39.4% with that slider, and he hopes that with even further tinkering in the lab, it can be an effective swing and miss pitch for him in 2025.
With the Diamondbacks looking ready to win 90+ games this season, the price to pay currently looks pretty good for whatever Kelly’s share of those wins ends up being.
Jesús Luzardo – 318.29 ADP*
2024 (66.2 IP): 3-6 W-L, 5.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 58 K
Looking for a resurgence in Philadelphia, Jesús Luzardo is worth the bet at the current asking price to see if the Phillies can harness his talent. He should get plenty of run support—more than he ever could have dreamed of in his entire tenure in Miami—and if he finds any kind of groove, he could pile up wins as a No. 5 starter.
Luzardo’s results in spring training have been mixed so far, albeit in a very small sample size. He threw 1.2 scoreless innings in his debut, impressing teammates while averaging 96.7 mph on the fastball and missing bats with his off-speed stuff, which includes a devastating slider and changeup.
However, his second spring outing couldn’t have gone much worse, as it included giving up back-to-back-to-back home runs on three consecutive pitches. He finished that outing giving up six earned runs on six hits in only two innings pitched.
It’s hard to read into two-inning sample sizes in the spring, in either direction. The real Luzardo is likely somewhere in between the guy whose stuff was called “electric” by his new catcher J.T. Realmuto after that first outing and the guy who could not stop giving up runs in the next.
The most important thing to watch for here is if the velocity bump we saw in his Phillies debut sticks. That 96.7 mph average velocity on his fastball was up 1.5 mph from his four-seamer velocity in 2024 and is a huge part of whether or not Luzardo’s stuff can get through a major league lineup multiple times each time he takes the bump. While his slider and changeup both clearly rank as elite pitches, when the fastball velocity is down, he can struggle to get outs, as the pitch does not have a shape deceptive enough to compensate for the lack of velocity and keep hitters honest. That is when outings can fall apart for Luzardo.
As has been profiled previously on this site, his fastball is what is known as a “dead zone“ fastball, with the key takeaway being that the shape of the pitch relative to Luzardo’s arm slot makes the ball appear flat to the batter and easier to barrel. If he can keep the velocity up on the fastball and locate his pitches, it becomes much less of a problem, so that will certainly be the main thing to watch for here early in the season. It would be wise to have him stashed on your team, though, while watching, as his ceiling cannot be paralleled by those currently being drafted around him.
Brayan Bello – 326.86 ADP*
2024 (162.1 IP): 14-8 W-L, 4.49 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 153 K
While many of his starts last season were not pretty by any standards, Brayan Bello managed to grind out 14 wins in what was mostly a rebuilding year for the Boston Red Sox. That number put him tied for 12th in the league in the category alongside aces like Dylan Cease and George Kirby.
Now the team around Bello looks truly on the rise with the offseason additions of Garrett Crochet, Alex Bregman, and Walker Buehler, as well as top prospects Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer all near the MLB-end of the pipeline.
Bello is an innings-eater. Despite having a non-impressive ERA or WHIP, he hangs around in games long enough to earn a decision more often than not in an age where fewer pitchers can be counted on to even get through five innings in the first place.
He also keeps the ball on the ground—his ground ball rate of 53.1% was in the 86th percentile last season—and he finished 2024 with above average exit velocity against, barrel rate, chase and whiff rates, as well as above average PLV (5.17) and PLA (3.14)
Bello’s changeup is easily his best pitch with a .177 BAA, missing bats and freezing hitters at a ridiculous rate.
Where he gets into trouble, though, is with his most used pitch, the sinker. The pitch has a good shape to it (it ranks 18th in xMov and 14th in yMov) but got hit at a very unsustainable .309 clip last season. His slider was similar. It has a good shape to it based on the metrics, but it got hit too often at a .268 clip.
Location was clearly the issue for both pitches, as Bello’s Zone%, x-mLoc%, hiLoc%, and mmLoc% were all well below average, meaning these pitches were typically thrown where batters would prefer them to be, rather than in locations that make them difficult to barrel up.
The hope here is that Bello can improve on these location issues and reach double digit wins once again in 2025. It should be noted that the Red Sox recently announced that Bello will not be ready for the start of the regular season as he continues to rehab from right shoulder inflammation, but it does not sound like a long-term setback. In the meantime, he is throwing bullpens with his longtime mentor and Hall-of-Famer Pedro Martinez looking on and providing guidance, hoping to help fine-tune his mechanics.
With the Red Sox now planning to start the year with Bello on the IL, it would be wise to do the same as a short-term stash for your fantasy team. In the meantime, you might also want to grab Richard Fitts, whose likelihood of a rotation spot to open the season just got much greater, and who was recently written about by Nick Pollack in his “Starting Pitchers to Draft Late for Fantasy Baseball 2025” article as one of his favorite sleeper arms.
Kris Bubic – 460.58 ADP*
2024 (30.1 IP): 1-1 W-L, 2.67 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 39 K
“This really feels like the first spring training I can pitch healthy for the whole six to seven weeks,” said Kris Bubic of this offseason. The 27-year-old left-hander has waited quite a while for a spring training like this one after having undergone Tommy John surgery in April 2023.
Bubic currently has the advantage for the fifth rotation spot for the Kansas City Royals after coming out of the bullpen for all 27 of his appearances last season, a role in which he reminded those paying attention that he still has excellent stuff.
His four-seamer/slider/changeup combination presents three legitimate pitches to hitters, with the four-seamer especially grading out well last season.
The slider has an impressive yMov of -2.3, which ranks eighth in the entire league for that pitch type, and the changeup is no slouch, either.
Bubic should have the chance to pitch into the fifth and sixth innings now that he has been given a starting rotation spot and moved out of the bullpen, and one would imagine he will be eager to show that he is able to do so. The Royals also look like a sleeper team this season in the AL Central. The addition of Jonathan India, in particular, looks to fit their lineup like a glove and now provides a legitimate leadoff hitter in front of generational superstar Bobby Witt Jr., something they were sorely lacking last season.
If the Royals can improve upon their surprisingly impressive 86 wins last season, Bubic looks like a prime candidate for a sneaky back of the rotation starter who can bring back value in the win column.
Hayden Wesneski – 575.13 ADP*
2024 (67.2 IP): 3-6 W-L, 3.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 67 K
A bit of a question mark coming into spring training, Hayden Wesneski now looks to have the fifth spot in the Houston Astros‘ rotation shored up. Wesneski is an intriguing arm who gets great extension (7.0 feet, 93rd percentile) and limits hard contact, leaning into a sweeper that opponents hit only .165 against last season.
That sweeper also had an impressive CSW% of 39.1%, which ranked 24th in all of MLB, and the shape of it grades out nicely as well with an xMov of -9.4, which ranked 19th in the league.
While Wesneski’s four-seamer doesn’t have a great shape to it, it still managed to perform above average in terms of Str%, batting average against, and HC%.
The key here will be to see if that four-seamer can maintain its success despite not having an elite shape (his elite extension likely makes up for this), and if he can harness the sinker (11.0% usage) or cutter (9.0% usage) more to maintain an effective third pitch as a starter. The cutter currently shows more promise with an xMov of -2.6, which ranks 11th in the league for that pitch.
While still with a lot to prove as a starter, the Astros should have no problem letting Wesneski at least attempt to pitch deep into games, as they are lacking depth in both the back end of their starting rotation and their bullpen. If Wesneski can get into a bit of a rhythm as a starter, this could be one of the sneakier win plays around.