Regarding identifying hitting sleepers to pick up in fantasy drafts (or waivers shortly after drafts), PLV metrics can be helpful.
PL Pro has long offered PLV tools that identify and measure specific hitter skills and how they relate to other MLB hitters. That includes rolling charts of decision value, contact ability, strike zone judgment, and hitter performance (to name a few). Furthermore, as illustrated in Nate Schwartz’s FSWA-nominated article, Process+ took all those skills and combined them in a metric and rolling chart that can effectively summarize a hitter’s toolset and what kind of success (or regression) that particular hitter had over a select time.
In this post, I will look at five different PLV skills from five hitters whom PLV metrics are optimistic about in fantasy for the upcoming 2025 season (it includes all the skills I listed above). I will also share their respective Process+ rolling chart, giving fantasy baseball managers an idea of how that particular hitter’s decision-making, contact ability, and power looked together a season ago. By analyzing all these forms of PLV data, fantasy managers will understand why these five hitters should be roster targets in 2025.
All ADP data comes from NFC.
Pavin Smith (ADP: 464.60)
After underwhelming a bit from 2020 to 2023 (cumulative zero fWAR in 301 games), Smith broke out in a small sample size in 2024.
In 60 games and 158 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks, the former 1st-round pick hit .270 with nine home runs and 36 RBI. He also posted a 142 wRC+, the first time he posted a wRC+ above 100 in his career. With Christian Walker now a Houston Astro, Smith has the opportunity for regular at-bats, even with the arrival of Josh Naylor from Cleveland this offseason.
Regarding his PLV categories, Smith rated above average in all five, with his power (124) and hitter performance (132) rating as his best. In terms of Process+, he didn’t have a huge sample. That said, all three of his skills remained above average for most of his season in Arizona, with a slight dip in contact at the end of the season being the only blemish.
Regardless of that late-season dip, there’s a lot to like about Smith. He’s got a patient approach (career 0.50 BB/K ratio), and last season, he finally tapped into that long-hyped power. His 14.7% barrel rate and 44% hard-hit rate were career highs, correlating with what PLV showcased last year in the power department.
Because of Naylor’s arrival, Randal Grichuk’s return, and Smith’s lack of Minor League options, Smith is going low in fantasy drafts, with an ADP of 464.6. However, he could be a sleeper in the late rounds who is worth taking a flier on, as the skills are in place for an offensive breakout in 2025.
Jonathan Aranda (ADP: 372.55)
Aranda has long been one to pay attention to in fantasy in years past. However, as expected with Rays players, he hasn’t gotten the at-bats to justify a spot on a roster in most formats (especially 10-team and 12-team ones).
The 26-year-old did show some progress in 2024, as he hit six home runs and scored 22 runs in 44 games and 143 plate appearances with the Rays. The average wasn’t anything worthwhile (.234), but he did post a .308 OBP, and his .362 xwOBA was 42 points higher than his actual wOBA. That shows that Aranda may have suffered from tough batted-ball luck last season.
PLV painted a rosy picture of Aranda’s hitting skills in 2024.
He was rated above average in four categories (decision value, contact, power, and hitter performance) and was only slightly below average in strike zone judgment. Power was his best category, as evidenced by his 128 mark. His 16.5% barrel rate and 46.4% hard-hit rate also demonstrate that Aranda has 20+ HR potential if he gets the plate appearances in 2025.
Process+ confirmed his power as legitimate for most of his short-season sample last year, while decision value and contact ability hovered more around average. Interestingly enough, his decision value was more substantial at the beginning of the year, while his contact got better at the end.
With the Rays moving to a Spring Training yard for 2025 due to hurricane destruction of Tropicana Field (they will be playing in the Yankees’ Spring Training facility in Tampa), Aranda will be moving from one of the more pitching-friendly parks in baseball to a more hitter-friendly one. Thus, based on those new home park factors and solid skills based on PLV, Aranda could have a nice campaign in 2025 and be a bargain in the 370 ADP range.
Carlos Correa (ADP: 239.53)
Correa is always a challenging dilemma in fantasy due to his health. The former Astro only played in 86 games last season and accumulated only 367 plate appearances due to various injuries. That said, when he did play, the 30-year-old was one of the more productive shortstops in baseball.
Last season, he hit .310 with 14 home runs, 55 R, and 54 RBI. He also barreled the ball 9.1% of the time and had a 44.5% hard-hit rate. If he can play a full year in 2025, he may be one of the better bargains in fantasy drafts.
The PLV data from last season also hints that Correa may not be slowing down skills-wise.
He was above average in four categories (strike zone judgment, contact, power, and hitter performance) and was only three points below average in decision value. He posted above 120 marks in contact and hitter performance, which shows that Correa was still as complete a hitter in Minnesota last year as he was in his final seasons in Houston. The only difference was that he didn’t play enough games due to injury.
Correa’s Process+ demonstrated elite contact and power skills before he went down to injury. When he returned, the skills mainly remained the same, though there was slight regression (which was to be expected considering his long layoff and not 100 percent).
Shortstops can go early in drafts, especially in AL-only formats. That said, for those willing to be patient, Correa may be a nice consolation prize later in drafts, even if there may be some significant injury risk for fantasy managers.
Iván Herrera (ADP: 236.20)
The Cardinals seem committed to moving Willson Contreras out of the catching position this year.
According to Roster Resource, he’s predicted to be the first baseman on Opening Day, which makes sense with the departure of Paul Goldschmidt, who is now a Yankee. St. Louis is moving Contreras due to Herrera’s better defensive skills and the 24-year-old’s budding bat.
In 72 games and 259 plate appearances, Herrera hit .301 with five home runs, 37 R, 27 RBI, and 5 SB. That is excellent production from a catcher in traditional 5×5 scoring formats. Furthermore, Herrera’s 8.9% barrel rate and 41.9% hard-hit rate also demonstrated that his offensive production is sustainable.
PLV also seemed to be a big fan of Herrera’s skill set in 2024.
He was above average in three categories (contact, power, and hitting performance), with power rating as his best trait via his 120 mark. The decision value rated three points below average, and his strike zone judgment rated eight points below average, so his 2024 campaign wasn’t flawless. However, at 24 years old, he will likely develop his strike zone judgment with more plate appearances, and his contact ability and power can make up for that “slight” deficiency for now.
Process+ did show that his decision-making improved after a bit of a layoff.
Even though the overall decision-making was slightly below average, Herrera demonstrated some more discipline at the end of last season, specifically around the middle to end of September. That is an encouraging sign that the Panamanian catcher is maturing as a hitter.
If Herrera transitions that discipline and decision-making into 2025, he could be one of the better catchers in fantasy and a worthwhile long-term option in keeper and dynasty formats.
Jordan Westburg (ADP: 86.52)
Westburg is this group’s most high-profile fantasy hitter, which is why I saved him for last. In 107 games and 447 plate appearances in his sophomore season in Baltimore, the 26-year-old infielder hit .264 with 18 HR, 57 R, 63 RBI, and 6 SB. He also sported a barrel rate of 11.8% and a hard-hit rate of 46.1%, both significant improvements from his 2023 rookie season.
His PLV skills were rated incredibly well last year. He posted above-average marks in strike zone judgment, decision value, power, and hitter performance, with the latter two rating as his best categories with 118 marks. His contact was barely below average at 99. It’s not out of the question to think that he could get back to average in that category in 2025, especially with two seasons at the MLB level under his belt.
When it comes to Process+, there’s not a whole lot to complain about with Westburg and what he did in 2024 in terms of decision-making, contact ability, and power. He suffered a broken hand at the end of July, which put him out for most of August and September (he did return at the end of the year).
Injuries will be key for Westburg in 2025. His contact was fine for the most part last year until a swoon in July, which could’ve been fatigue or health-related. He has also been dealing with a sore back this spring, which could limit his playing time out of the gate in April. If Westburg misses time, Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo are two guys who could benefit.
Nonetheless, if he’s 100 percent, Westburg is a Top-100 player in fantasy and could be a nice option for fantasy managers due to this keystone and hot corner eligibility.