If you went back to the beginning of the season and named the nine starters for the National League All-Star team to any regular baseball fan, eight of those names would make all the sense in the world. The one surprise would be Pete Crow-Armstrong, and his 2025 production makes the selection anything but that, with him among the more valuable players in the sport this season.
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s value as a baseball player is amplified by his ability as a fielder. Still, any fantasy baseball fan can attest to his impact as a hitter and on the basepaths, all of which come in a particularly unique brand.
Between the difference in his 2024 and 2025 production and the original view of him as more of an all-around talent rather than a potentially great hitter, assessing what to expect from PCA moving forward is a difficult challenge we’ll tackle here.
Among the game’s best
Still shy of 100 games, PCA has already surpassed his cumulative numbers of last year, and his five-category contribution (AVG leagues mostly) puts him up there as a borderline top 10 hitter. Even in OBP leagues, you’ll be more than happy to put up with the .304 mark to get his production in that particular lineup.
One of the key aspects that makes hitting and baseball as a whole such an interesting sport is that not all hitters are created equal. Success often comes from figuring out your strengths and maximizing them while doing the opposite with your weaknesses.
PCA is an aggressive hitter, and he’ll probably always be an aggressive hitter. There is always room to walk a little more and get a better floor from it, but that’s not the focal point. In fact, PCA is so aggressive at the plate that it’s kind of comical.
PL Pro members have access to one of our stats that measures swing aggression. It’s a way for us to measure a hitter’s choices in comparison with the likely decision for whichever pitch they see.
Coming in at second place on that list is Jake Mangum at 14.6%, and head and shoulders above anyone else, you’ll find PCA at 18.2%.
When you’re that much of an outlier, your whole approach conditions you into certain needs in order to be successful. Since PCA isn’t particularly elite at making contact (28th percentile Con%), he has to make the most of it when he does connect.
Not that long ago, the Cubs traded for someone who made a living out of pulled fly balls, and although his tenure in Chicago was short-lived, who would’ve thought one of his ‘disciples’ would pop up on the team?
Someone who doesn’t hit the ball with that great authority (42nd percentile EV), PCA does his damage by hitting a bunch of pulled fly balls. That’s a much more sustainable skill set than if he were featuring an extremely high line-drive rate, for instance.
PCA’s batted ball stats and their percentiles:
Dealing with a hitter that aggressive, pitchers have adjusted to throw fewer strikes to him than they did in the past. PCA’s zone rate went from 46.5% in 2024 to 42.5% this year. But as we touched on before, it’s not as if the Cubs’ starting CF is shy about going outside the zone.
When it comes to redraft, you’re probably just riding the wave, but for dynasty players, the lingering question has been there. What to do with PCA?
One aspect that dampens my long-term expectations for PCA is the uncertain outlook of the Cubs’ offense, particularly with a certain free agent-to-be.
Kyle Tucker isn’t the sole reason why this lineup has taken off, but if you remove him and say PCA starts to slug .509 and not .549, the former being his xSLG, all of a sudden, the floor drops a bit. Not to mention Seiya Suzuki also having a career year, even if he’s been perennially underrated.
Now, even if Tucker goes and the Cubs don’t replace him somewhat adequately, PCA’s fantasy outlook is largely contingent on his ability to build off this outstanding campaign and live up to the success he’s had. Maintaining this level of production is a difficult enough task, much less improving it.
An interesting comparison to make, even though they’re very different players, but similar in terms of plate discipline, is one with Junior Caminero. Caminero doesn’t have the optimal batted ball profile of PCA, but he makes up for it by hitting the ball with more authority. Excluding SB contributions, between a potential downgrade of the offense and a little regression, PCA could put up similar stats to 2025 Junior Caminero next year.
This is an important comparison to make because at the moment, PCA is performing like the absolute big boys, and we all know that might be a bit too much and too unfair to expect from him long-term.
If you account for all these things, it’s reasonable to say we’re seeing the peak version, and that’s not a criticism. The long-term future for PCA is promising enough, and we’re past the point of concern that the bottom will drop out at any moment.
