Batter’s Box: Dr. Quinn, Medicine Roman

Everything Chu thinks you need to know about Monday's best hitters is right here in the Batter's Box.

The speedy young Roman Quinn (OF, Philadelphia Phillies) has started 4 of the last 5 games for the Phillies, going 7/17 with two home runs and three stolen bases in that stretch, including a strong performance on Monday (2-4, RBI, SB). He’s been fighting for a starting job of late, and with the demotion of Maikel Franco, there is theoretically an opportunity in the Philadelphia outfield if he can run away with the job. While I don’t think he’ll secure everyday playing time due to his high strikeout rate, his blazing speed and decent glove should keep him in the lineup at least semi-regularly, even if he slumps a little.

There is no doubt that many folks are looking for categories to strengthen as we enter the thick of the playoff races. A whole lot of people are likely targeting specific stats that seems easiest to make up, and in my experience, stolen bases are often one that has a lot of gain potential due to the scarcity of stolen bases and the fact that the middle of the standings in stolen bases is generally quite tightly packed. In many leagues, 5-10 stolen bases can make a huge difference in the final standings, and guys like Quinn, who have 30 stolen base potential in a full season, start to look quite tantalizing.

I’m not going to necessarily dissuade you from trying to buy a lottery ticket on Quinn. He has a decent hit tool, after all, and managed to hit .260 with 10 steals back in 2018 over 50 games and already has seven in 35 games this year. You want steals? He’s got them! The thing is, you have to make sure you’re not hurting yourself in other categories. It’s easy to identify a guy who is hurting you in batting average, because most fantasy players have some idea of what a good batting average is. But how about runs and RBI? What’s a “good” number for those? These numbers can be tougher to conceptualize, and while the more mathematically-inclined can give you a way to project and find set figures, the far easier way to get an idea at a glance is simply looking at batting order.

Quinn is going to hit eighth or ninth pretty much every time he starts, and while the Phillies aren’t an awful offensive team, they can’t support high counting stats at the bottom of their order. Simply batting eighth or ninth doesn’t preclude a guy from being fantasy relevant, but there are only so many bottom-of-the-order hitters a fantasy manager can hold before the runs and RBI start to crumble. In short, I would encourage everyone to be mindful of not only what stats players provide, but the stats that they do not. I have noticed many a manager lose track of this to their extreme detriment.

Jonathan Villar (2B/SS, Baltimore Orioles)—4-5, 2 R, HR, 3B, 2B, 2 RBI. He’s been a top 20 hitter so far on ESPN’s player rater thanks to the speed coupled with positive contributions in the remaining categories. His ADP was 78 in the NFBC second chance leagues, which is a fairly decent barometer for what we might expect his ADP to be in the spring.

Marcus Semien (SS, Oakland Athletics)—2-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI. He’s quietly been a very useful shortstop in most formats and is on pace for 25 home runs, 10 stolen bases and a .262 batting average. The biggest change has been his place discipline, which he has basically improved every year since his debut in 2013, culminating in an 11.8% walk rate and just a 13.9% strikeout rate so far this season.

Mike Tauchman (OF, New York Yankees)—3-4, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI. He’s been excellent filling in as the Yankees primary left fielder since July 14th, hitting .429 and slugging .821 with five home runs and two stolen bases in 17 games. There’s little indication that any of this is sustainable, mind you, but if you’re desperate for short term help in a very deep league, Tauchman’s hot bat could be help.

Javier Baez (2B/3B/SS, Chicago Cubs)—2-3, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB. The slight dip in stolen bases is less than ideal, but he is going to get close to 40 home runs with a .285 or better batting average and 15 steals. That’s a top 10 hitter if I’ve ever seen one. People will always point to his plate discipline as a red flag, but at this point, his hand-eye coordination and bat speed give him a unique skill set that allows him to be hyper-aggressive and successful.

Christian Yelich (OF, Milwaukee Brewers)—4-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI. The NL MVP race is as hot as ever between Yelich and Cody Bellinger. Yelich’s next home run will be number 40 on the year, and he already has 23 stolen bases to go along with them. The 23 steals are the only significant stat advantage he has over Bellinger, so it will be interesting to see if it plays a role in the voting.

Nick Castellanos (OF, Chicago Cubs)—3-4, 2 R, HR, 2B, 2 RBI. I still don’t think he’s going to see a huge home run boost due to Wrigley. If he gets a home run boost, it will be because he starts elevating the ball. He’s a fourth or fifth outfielder in most leagues.

Orlando Arcia (SS, Milwaukee Brewers)—3-4, R, RBI. The .277 batting average from 2017 seems like forever ago, doesn’t it? His playing time plus double-digit power and speed will give him value in extremely deep leagues, but that’s about it. He’s only 25, so there’s a chance that he could find a way to recover his contact skills, but I wouldn’t be investing in that potential outcome.

Tim Anderson (SS, Chicago White Sox)—3-5, 2 R, 2B. He’s finally back from an injury that kept him out for over a month, but at least we know he’s healthy. He has a hit five straight games and an extra base hit in four straight. He hasn’t stolen a base in quite a while, but it should only be a matter of time. His injury will make his final season line look less impressive than it is, as he should get close to 20 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a .300 batting average over just 120 games. The batting average isn’t likely to be that high in future seasons, but he’s far from the .240 hitter we saw in 2018.

Brett Gardner (OF, New York Yankees)—3-4, 3 R, HR, RBI. He’s back to an everyday role for the Yankees thanks to a seemingly endless parade of injuries that strike as soon as someone else gets healthy. He’s going to play every day and, oddly enough, has been hitting in the middle of the order over the last few contests. If that continues, he becomes much more relevant in a mixed league.

Bryan Reynolds (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates)—3-5, 2 R, HR, 2B, RBI. We aren’t talking about him much, but he’s still piling up the hits for the Pirates. He actually has scored multiple runs in five of his last seven games and is a very underrated play in points formats. There’s very limited power and no real speed here, but the contact ability is very real.

Joc Pederson (1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers)—2-4, 2 R, HR, RBI, BB. Against righties in 2019, Joc has a very nice 125 wRC+ and a .867 OPS. Against lefties, he has a wRC+ of 7 (100 is average, in case you forgot) and a .406 OPS. He’s a platoon guy in real life and should be a platoon guy for your fantasy team.

JaCoby Jones (OF, Detroit Tigers)—2-5, R, HR, 3B, RBI. There’s no batting average to be found here, but if you’re in a very deep league and need some pop and speed, JaCoby can be of some service to you. I doubt the batting average will ever come around, but he could be a poor man’s Brett Gardner in years to come if they need him to be for some reason.

J. T. Realmuto (C, Philadelphia Phillies)—1-4, R, 2B, RBI, BB, SB. Injuries, inconsistency and a lack of elite players at catcher means J.T. will once again be the number one catcher in fantasy by season’s end. He should get to about 22 home runs, seven steals and a .275/.330/.465 line when it’s all over, which probably isn’t worth the insane price people paid (especially in single-catcher formats), but in terms of the being the number one catcher, they got what they wanted.

Kole Calhoun (OF, Los Angeles Angels)—0-4, 3 K. He’s hitting .215 since the All-Star Break, but he does have a .506 slugging percentage. You don’t need that, though. I promise you that you don’t. You can get more exciting power elsewhere.

Christian Vazquez (C, Boston Red Sox)—0-4, 3 K. Catchers, am I right? Sigh.

(Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire).

Scott Chu

Scott Chu is a Senior Fantasy Analyst here at Pitcher List and has written about fantasy baseball since 2013. He's also the inventor of Fantasy Curling (as seen the Wall Street Journal) and co-host of the Hacks & Jacks Podcast on the PL Podcast Network, and 4x FSWA Award nominee for Best Fantasy Baseball Podcast. In addition to being a fantasy analyst, he's a dad of three, animal lover, Simpsons fanatic, amateur curler, a CODA, and an attorney.

17 responses to “Batter’s Box: Dr. Quinn, Medicine Roman”

  1. Paul says:

    Was hoping to see Isan on here with a GIF of his dad’s reaction… thoughts on his outlook, crazy numbers in the minors, though i remain highly skeptical.

    • Scott Chu says:

      He’s an interesting player long term, Paul, but I’m not sure he’s very relevant in 10- and 12-team leagues. Playing time, adjustments to the majors, and limited power and speed means that you almost certainly have better redraft MI options.

    • Jim says:

      Homered 1st game. He had a SB in the 1st game if it wasn’t for a catcher’s interference. He attempted a SB in the second game. Granted, this was running on the Mets which is supposedly to be a game plan. Didn’t look too limited in terms of power and speed.

      • Scott Chu says:

        It’s not a bad point, Jim, though that was his only hit in the doubleheader. He hit 26 home runs in AAA this season, though Miami is a tougher venue than most minor league parks to go yard. He only had 26 total home runs between 2017 and 2018, though the AAA/MLB baseball and good ol’ growth can explain the big jump. He could feasibly hit 4-6 home runs through the rest of the year, depending on playing time.

        The speed is pretty limited though, from a stolen base perspective. I’d be surprised if he got more than 10 in a full season. I wouldn’t be projecting more than 2 or 3 for the remainder of the season, and even that might be a little generous.

        In 15-teamers, he’s worth an add. In 10- and 12-teamers, though, he’s probably on the outside looking in for my top 20 2B for the rest of the season. This is not a Keston Hiura or Bo Bichette-type player, but it is a solid prospect.

  2. King Donko of Punchstania says:

    Amazing headline

    • Scott Chu says:

      Much appreciated, King Donko. I was pretty proud of myself this morning when I thought of it. I might not know much about baseball, but I hope my passion for baseball puns come through in my work.

  3. Orange WHIPs says:

    Depends on format obviously, but Realmuto is currently 4th and 2nd in my leagues and has little chance of catching Grandal in either. The league he’s 4th (OBP/SLG) he’s also behind Garver and Contreras with Sanchez set to nip at his heel when he returns. Still solid, but he’s not running away with No. 1.

    • Scott Chu says:

      The OBP distinction makes a big difference, as it negates Grandal’s biggest weakness and goes after the one thing Realmuto doesn’t do (which is take walks). He’s first by a fairly safe margin in standard 5×5 due to the batting average advantage he has on Grandal, and with Contreras out for the next month or so with a hamstring injury, it’ll be hard for anyone to catch him. Even Garver, who has a strong batting average and more home runs, has 0 steals and is behind by a fairly large margin in runs and RBI (because he doesn’t play every day).

      You are correct, though—Realmuto is far from the #1 in OBP formats. He’s actually pretty overvalued in those formats.

  4. Crenshaw says:

    Yo Scott, yo!
    My playoffs started this week (early i know), am i wasting my time keeping VanMeter as a bench bat? He seems awesome, just wish they’d play him every day. Isan and Grisham are out there

    • Scott Chu says:

      VanMeter has never been much of a prospect, but he raked in AAA before his call up and is still quite hot. I’m not sure any of those guys will play every day, but I bet VanMeter will keep hitting fourth of fifth against righties. I’d probably keep rolling with him and plugging him in when it’s an RHP match-up.

  5. Chucky says:

    Talk to me about JD Davis. A regular, even when Dominick returns?

    • Scott Chu says:

      I’ve been hoping for that all season, Chucky. Hasn’t happened yet and not sure it will until next season. He hits the ball hard, though. Has a very Jose Martinez feel to him.

  6. Dave says:

    What’s your long term thoughts on Luis Urias? He really is struggling. Thanks

  7. Don says:

    No mention of Aristides? Did you see that bomb? Whats your outlook on him ROS he seems to be getting playing time

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