Batter’s Box: Hauling Illegal CarGo

I’ve gotten a lot of questions about Carlos Gonzalez just about all year. I liked him in the preseason quite a bit and he’s been struggling somewhat so far this year,...

I've gotten a lot of questions about Carlos Gonzalez just about all year. I liked him in the preseason quite a bit and he's been struggling somewhat so far this year, batting just .232 over the past month (though he's got 20 runs, so that's cool). Monday night was no different, as he went 0-4 on the night, and CarGo owners are panicking. In fact, my colleague here, Ben Pernick, who writes Patience or Panic said he's on the side of panicking with CarGo. Here's what I'm here to tell you: calm down, it'll be ok. Here's why: Looking at most of CarGo's stats, things actually look pretty decent. The walk rate is at a career-high, the strikeout rate is in line with his career, his pull rate is at a career-high (that's a good thing for power), his whiff rate is the lowest it's been since 2013, and his chase rate is the lowest it's been since 2012. So everything that would signal CarGo is getting old and losing bat speed just isn't there, if anything, he's more disciplined at the plate this year than he has been in awhile. So what's wrong? If you take a look at his quality of contact, that's where the problem lies, in two stats: A hard hit rate of 29.5% (the lowest of his career) and a HR/FB rate of 9.1%, which is low considering his career HR/FB rate is 18.8%. These are odd and out of the norm for CarGo, and I think there's reason to believe he could heat up, and I will point you to the year 2015 as to why. From the beginning of the season in 2015 until June 5th, CarGo was bad. He was batting .233 with just four home runs, a hard hit rate of 28.4% (a career-low at the time), and a HR/FB rate of just 11.1% (again, low for him). Sound familiar? From June 6th through the end of the year, CarGo batted .288 with 36 home runs, a hard hit rate of 36.9% and a HR/FB rate of 30.3%, ending the year with 40 home runs and a .271 average. So if you gave up on him in June of 2015, you looked like an idiot by the end of the year. Don't look like an idiot this year.

Let's look at some of the other performances from Monday:

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Ben Palmer

Senior columnist at Pitcher List. Lifelong Orioles fan, also a Ravens/Wizards/Terps fan. I also listen to way too much music, watch way too many movies, and collect way too many records.

5 responses to “Batter’s Box: Hauling Illegal CarGo”

  1. Swayze Express says:

    Hey Ben, on Addison Russell..I own him in 2 leagues, a 14 team dynasty and a 10 team 7 keeper. Losing patience in the 10 team but holding in the dynasty. He is on waivers in a new 14 team 10 keeper league I’m in. His ceiling is just too high to pass on I think and I’m considering making a FAAB bid on him seeing as he may be keeper worthy at 140 players kept if he does turn it around. This is my first league using FAAB so I’m not sure how much to bid. The league just started so I still have $100 to spend between now and seasons end. If you think he needs to be picked up what do you think I should bid on him?

    • Ben Palmer says:

      I think you’re absolutely right to hold onto him in your dynasty league and to pick him up in your deep keeper league. Let’s not forget that the guy is 1. just 23 years old and 2. was rated as the top prospect in baseball at one point.

      As for what you should bid, being that it’s a keeper league and not a dynasty league, I wouldn’t go nuts. Try and get him for a cheap bid, you might get it because of how bad he’s been, but I wouldn’t go over $20-30 probably.

      • SwayzeExpress says:

        Sweet, thanks for the advice. I am thinking maybe 10-15 bucks. Since the league just started, everyone still has $100 left, aside from the 1 guy who bid $3 on Josh Bell. Aledmys Diaz is my only SS and is a fringe keeper for me atm, if Russell turns it around I think he’ll definitely make the cut.

  2. bobbo says:

    Hey Ben, I drafted Kipnis in my 10man 6×6 roto (BB is the 6th off category) with Cesar Hernandez as my short term play while he was coming off injury, which worked out. Since then other owners have dropped Jose Ramirez and DJ LeMathieu… both of whom I gobbled up (at the loss of the struggling Cesar). Can’t continue to hold all 3 though. Any advice on who you like least ROS?

    • Ben Palmer says:

      Wow, I can’t believe LeMahieu and Ramirez got dropped. Yea, hang onto Ramirez and LeMahieu, I’d dump Kipnis of those three.

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