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White Sox vs. Pirates -1.5
(-118 FD, -118 DK)
This game is the ultimate perfect storm. I just had to figure out my favorite way to bet it. Stage one: the White Sox offense versus Steven Brault. The White Sox are the hottest team in the league against left-handed pitching posting a .438 wOBA over the last 14 days. Brault has been decent for the most part. He’s done a good job of keeping the ball on the ground. However, he has allowed a 43.3% hard-hit rate. The Pirates bullpen has been a mixed bag of late, allowing a 5.50 ERA over the last 14 days.
On the other side, we have White Sox ace Lucas Giolito on the bump against a Pirates team that has posted a .303 wOBA against righties over the last 14 days. Giolito for his part has been very good. He’s had two slight hiccups against the Twins and Cardinals, but was dominant in his other four starts allowing just four earned runs over 26 IP. The White Sox bullpen has been humming. Over the last 14 days, they’ve posted a 2.79 ERA. FTN’s Lineup Optimizer has the White Sox as the team with the biggest run total advantage tonight at 1.8 runs. The team total came out at five on FanDuel, so I’m playing the run line as well at the White Sox team total.
Pick: White Sox -1.5 (-118 DK and FD) White Sox O5 (-116 FD)
Blue Jays Team Total Over 5.5 (-110 FD, -105 DK)
The Blue Jays offense has been hot, posting a .365 team wOBA over the last 14 days. It helps that they get the gift that keeps on giving, Mr. 11.12 ERA himself, Kyle Hart. After Mr. Hart’s inevitable exit, the Blue Jays will get to face the Red Sox bullpen, who have allowed a 7.49 ERA over the last 14 days. On top of the offense being hot and the Red Sox pitching being garbage, the Blue Jay’s temporary home in Buffalo has been called Coors-lite. In fact, there have been 101 runs scored in nine games in Buffalo. I don’t love playing team totals over five, but this seems like too good of a spot to pass up.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-105 DK)
Giants Team Total Over 3.5 (-104 DK)
I keep calling the Giants offense pesky because they seem to be in every game, no matter what the odds are. The numbers back that up too. Over the last 14 days, their team wOBA ranks seventh at .354. If we zoom into the last seven days, that number jumps up to .387—third-best in the league. The Dodgers send Julio Urias to the mound, who has been a little underwhelming. In his last outing, Urias went just 1.2 IP, striking out five, but laboring to get those five outs. Urias’s strikeout rate is down this year, and there are conflicting reports on his hard-hit rate allowed. On one hand, Baseball Savant has his hard-hit rate at 22.9%. Fangraphs, on the other hand, has that rate at 52.9%. That’s a massive discrepancy. The last thing I wanted to highlight from this matchup is to break out the Giants split to show how they’ve been against lefties. Over the last 14 days, they’ve posted a .437 wOBA against southpaws. They have a minuscule 4.1% K-BB%. I like the Giants to cash this team total easily. As of this writing, the line for the Giants team total isn’t out on FanDuel.
Pick: Over 3.5 (-104 DK)
Mets vs. Marlins Over
As I’m writing this, the pitchers haven’t even been announced for these matchups. All I know is that currently there’s a 17 mph wind expected to be blowing out to right field. I know the seven-inning games are a little bit funky, but a hot and humid day with winds blowing out—that’s scoring weather. Keep an eye on who’s pitching and what the lines come out at to see if this is actionable.
Pick: TBD
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)