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Brewers at Reds Game 2 Moneyline
(No odds yet)
The Reds and Brewers are slated to play a double-header today. As of this writing, Game 2 is slated to be Wade Miley versus Josh Lindblom. Both these offenses have been something of an enigma of late. The only split that stands out is Milwaukee against left-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, the Brewers have posted a .381 wOBA against southpaws. Reds’ starter, Wade Miley has struggled mightily to start the year, posting a 9.72 ERA. When we dive in, Miley is struggling with his command as he’s walked 15.2% of batters he’s faced. Miley’s allowing a 2.50 WHIP, thanks to that high walk rate and a 34.5% line drive rate.
I’m not going to give Josh Lindblom any kind of credit as he has not been great. Although his 3.76 SIERA does point towards some positive regression, the facts are he’s posted a 6.65 ERA. The saving grace for Lindblom is the Reds’ offense. Over the last 14 days, the Reds have posted a .305 wOBA against righties. That number shrinks to .244 over the last seven days. In a seven-inning game, the Brewers’ offensive split against lefties should lead them to an easy win. Being that this is a double-header, make sure to head over to the FTN Lineup Page to make sure the Reds aren’t throwing out a Triple-A lineup before making this bet. I tried waiting as long as I could for the odds to come out for this game, but no cigar. According to SportsInsights.com, Pinnacle is the only book with a line for this game at -125. I’m good with that price if that’s what it comes out at on DraftKings or FanDuel.
Pick: Brewers ML
Orioles Team Total Over 3.5 (+100 FD, +107 DK)
The Orioles offense has cooled off since their super hot start, but one spot that they’ve stayed hitting in is against lefties. Over the last 14 days, the O’s have posted a .347 wOBA against southpaws and kept their strikeout rate low at 18.9%. During that time, they have a 30.3% line drive rate and are hitting the ball hard 44% of the time. If we zoom into their last seven days, that team wOBA balloons to .366 against lefties. The Rays will send Ryan Yarbrough to the mound who has been a JAG to start the year. He’s posted a 4.45 ERA while striking out 15.9% of the batters he’s faced. While’s he’s done a decent job of limiting hard contact, he has allowed a 29.6% line drive rate. With this number coming out at just 3.5 runs, we should cash this total relatively easily.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+107 DK)
Blue Jays and Athletics ML Parlay (+132 FD, +134 DK)
These two games are ones that I have a decent amount of faith in, but the Vegas line shows why. The Blue Jays send their ace Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound against a Red Sox team that has not gotten out of the starting gate. The Blue Jays offense and bullpen have also been excellent, while the Red Sox bullpen has allowed 54 runs over their last 60 IP.
In Arlington, we get a Rangers team whose offense seems to be playing golf–trying to get the lowest score possible. They’ve struggled at the play across the board, but against righties, they’ve posted a .271 wOBA over the last 14 days. The Rangers will face Chris Bassitt and an Oakland bullpen that has excelled of late allowing just eight runs over their last 50 IP. On the bump for the Rangers is Jordan Lyles, who, despite having a home stadium that’s been friendly to pitchers, has posted a 9.25 ERA. The Rangers bullpen has been better than that but has still allowed a 4.60 ERA over the last 14 days.
Even though I love this play, we’re still keeping in mind our budget management, which means a one-unit play is 1% of your bankroll. I’m not “dropping dimes” on these plays, and you shouldn’t be either. Be smart with your money and good luck today!
Pick: Blue Jays ML and Oakland ML (+134 DK)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)