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White Sox Team Total Over 5.5
(+112 DK)
The White Sox are one of the hottest offenses in the league and I’m along for the ride until the wheels fall off. Over the last 14 days, the Sox have a team wOBA of .397. When we dive in deeper, they have a hard-hit rate of 51.4% and their isolated slugging is through the roof: .314. They’re hitting from both sides of the plate, which is something I love because you don’t have to worry about what kind of reliever is coming in following the starter.
On the bump for the Royals is the rookie, Brady Singer. It’s been a little up and down for Singer out of the shoot. In his first start, he struck out seven Indians over five innings pitched while allowing two runs. However, since that start, he’s allowed seven homers over five appearances and currently sports a 5.16 ERA. Homers are not the type of struggles you want to have when facing this White Sox team. Following Singer, the White Sox will get a Royals bullpen that has allowed a not-terrible 4.44 ERA over the last 14 days. However, when we dive in, it’s a nasty, green pool filled with slime. Over those same 14 days, they’ve allowed a 48.0% hard-hit rate and a 25.6% line drive rate.
Usually, I like finding lower team totals where a team has sneaky-good splits a la the Orioles versus lefties, but with the White Sox being as hot as they are, I’m good with this number all the way up to 5.5 runs.
UPDATE – No odds yet on FanDuel, but I’m hoping this number comes out at five over there. If that’s the case, that’s where my money will be.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+112 DK)
Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-129 DK)
For those that don’t know me, I’m a Phillies fan. So much so that as part of my bachelor party, I got a Phillies tattoo on my right shoulder. However, that does not mean I’m a blind faith fan. In fact, I’m as realistic as they come. And today is a day to attack the Phillies. On the bump for the Phils will be Zach Eflin. The Phillies righty has been decent despite allowing a 5.12 ERA. Eflin has done a good job of limiting hard-contact and line drives, while his strikeout rate is up to 33.3%. It sounds like I should like Eflin, right? When you watch him though, he has these stretches of brilliance. Then, it’s almost like he takes his foot off the gas after the first time through the order. Just lapses of judgment. You can’t get away with that stuff against a Braves team that .346 wOBA against righties over their last 14 days.
Once Eflin leaves the game, it’ll be up to the Phillies bullpen to hold things down. What’s that sound? Oh yes — that’s me giggling because we know this bullpen stinks. They’ve been better over the last 14 days, allowing a 4.93 ERA, but they’re still allowing a 40% hard-hit rate and a 26.3% line-drive rate. If the Braves don’t get to Eflin early, they’ll get to the bullpen late. I was happy to see the FTN Lineup Optimizer has Atlanta’s projected team total at 5.7 runs.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-129 DK)
Nationals vs. Red Sox Over 11 (-130 DK)
I can practically smell the dumpster that these two pitching staffs are in. Over the last 14 days, the Red Sox and Nationals bullpens have posted ERAs of 6.49 and 4.70, respectively. Both are allowing line drive rates north of 27%, so those ERAs are not getting better anytime soon. Things don’t get much better when we look at the starters. Aníbal Sánchez takes the mound for the Nats. In his last start, Sanchez allowed just one earned run over seven innings to lower his ERA to 6.48. Moral of the story, he’s been bad against teams not named the Marlins.
Chris Mazza takes the mound for the Red Sox, who has also allowed an ERA north of 6.00. While Mazza has done a decent job limiting hard contact, he’s allowed a 27.8% line drive rate. The Nationals offense has really picked things up of late, posting a .365 team wOBA over the last seven days. The Red Sox on the other hand haven’t exactly been crushing, but ticked up to a .321 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
UPDATE: I just took a look at the weather for this game. I love it for offense; however, it does look like storms roll in towards the back end of the game. If you still want to play this, I’d play the first five innings over, but that 6.5 number is quite high. Be smart with your money and good luck today!
Pick: If the weather clears, O11 (-130 DK) or Nationals O5.5 (-115 FD). If it doesn’t clear, a small play on First Five Innings O6.5 (-104 FD).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)
Hey Rich, curious if you track your record with these picks. If you do, can you publish it?
Sure thing! I keep meaning to add it to the bottom of “the next article” and then I forget.
I’m currently 12-9 on the year, but on a nice heater 8-2 recently.
Nice!