Best Baseball Bets To Make On September 11

Andrew Gould breaks down Friday's top betting picks.

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Every team aside from the Astros and Dodgers are scheduled to play on Friday, which also features a pair of doubleheaders (Yankees vs. Orioles, Phillies vs. Marlins) out east. It’s shaping up to be a magnificent evening for pitching; Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber, and Aaron Nola are among the premier aces getting the ball. Let’s start with one them looking to stake his claim to a Cy Young Award threepeat.


New York Mets to Score First and Win (-118 Yes/-106 No on DraftKings)


The Mets hadn’t scored 14 combined runs in all of deGrom’s 2018 and 2019 starts before delivering some long overdue run support in last Sunday’s 14-1 victory over the Phillies. OK, I made up that stat. But you almost believed it, right? The infuriating trend of the Mets’ lineup (and bullpen) not helping deGrom permeated throughout both of his consecutive NL Cy Young Award campaigns. This season, however, an offense leading MLB in wRC+ is doing better by their ace. They’ve won six of his eight starts with a 44-23 margin.

Of course, the Mets are heavily favored to win (-190 on DraftKings, -196 on FanDuel) behind deGrom, so there’s little value in betting the moneyline. The -1.5 run line (-118 on DK, -126 FD) could pay off, but there’s risk of a shaky Mets bullpen leaving things too close to comfort. For the same odds as the spread on DraftKings, pivot to the Mets scoring first and emerging triumphant. In six starts, Chase Anderson has relinquished 15 hits and eight runs (four homers) through the first two innings. Meanwhile, deGrom has ceded just one run through the first three frames all season. In addition to allowing no more than one run in any of his past four turns, deGrom has collected 42 strikeouts and worked at least six frames each time. Look for a potent lineup to hand him an early lead and never look back.

Pick: Yes


Total Runs by Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5 (+108/-125 DraftKings)


When Jon Lester faced the Brewers on August 16, he allowed five runs. He’s also permitted five runs in each of his last two starts, defacing his ERA to 5.80. His 5.61 ERA and 5.02 SIERA don’t offer much sympathy. Neither do his MLB-worst 17 barrels served up this season. The often streaky starter now has 31 hits in his past four starts spanning 17.1 innings.

Making matters worse, he’ll catch the Brewers for a rematch at the wrong time. Following Wednesday’s 19-0 trouncing over the Tigers, they rank inside the top 10 of team wRC+ and wOBA over the last two weeks. They still have a concerning tendency of running hot and cold, producing 56 runs in their last six wins but just 10 in their past seven losses. An advantageous matchup against Lester should bring out the best in the Brew Crew, who wield a 122 wRC+ against lefties. Chicago’s bullpen is also far from an impenetrable force, so look for Milwaukee to pick up a pivotal win with plenty of scoring.

Pick: Over


Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies: Moneyline (+116/-136, +116/-136 DraftKings)

This contest between fourth-place squads should be considered closer to a toss-up. The 20-23 Rockies are only a hair better than the 18-27 Angels on the ledger. However, the Rockies possess a minus-47 run differential and have lost seven of their last 10 games. Although the postseason remains improbable for the Angels, they’ve won nine of their last 14, improving their run differential to minus-26. While the Halos have notched just six victories on the road, the Rockies are a measly 9-12 at Coors Field. Both teams are mediocre, but the Rockies aren’t necessarily any better.

It’s also clear by now that Germán Márquez is a high-quality pitcher, but only when unencumbered by Colorado’s altitude. Since the start of 2019, he has a 6.45 ERA and 1.58 WHIP at home. Facing a scorching-hot Mike Trout in this stadium is the equivalent of opposing a Monstar. Now, that doesn’t mean an erratic Griffin Canning is likely to fare much better. This is just tackling a line inefficiency. The Angels have the best player on the planet at the top of his game and a bullpen advantage. Fade The Noise’s MLB Optimizer favors Colorado by just 0.3 runs, which suggests that there’s still value in taking the other side at +116.

Pick: Over


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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

Andrew Gould

Andrew is Pitcher List's DFS Manager who also covers MLB and NFL for FantasyPros and Bleacher Report. He placed second in FantasyPros' MLB accuracy ratings in 2016 and fifth in 2018.

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