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Braves Team Total Over 4.5
(-106 FD, +100 DK)
The Braves offense has been the hottest in the league of late. Over the last 14 days, they’ve posted a team wOBA of .401. The hotness continues against left-handed pitching. Over that same time period, they have a wOBA of .421 against southpaws. The Nationals send Patrick Corbin to the mound. Corbin has not been himself this year. We’ve seen his strikeout rate dip to 21% and his hard-hit rate jump to 44.1% which is the highest of his career.
The nail in the coffin of this play is the Nationals’ bullpen. Over the last 14 days, they’ve allowed 31 runs over 50 IP. On the batted ball front, they’ve allowed a 42.6% hard-hit rate and just a 28.1% ground ball rate. Allowing hard-hit fly balls and line drives are not the key to turning around that ERA.
Pick: Over 4.5 (+100 DK)
Angels Team Total Over 5.5 (-114 FD, -125 DK)
Coors games are always a mess, but the only thing that’s consistent is the offense. The Angels have been pretty decent against left-handed pitching of late, posting a .349 wOBA over the last 7 days. One of the things I really like about this Angels team is that they don’t strikeout. In that same timeframe, they’ve K’d at a 13.7% clip. Putting the ball in play in Coors is going to get positive results for the majority of the time.
The Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the mound today. Freeland looked good early in the year but has evened out of late. In his last two starts at home, he’s allowed 8 earned runs over 6.1 IP while striking out four. Following Freeland will be the Rockies bullpen, who has been the worst in baseball over the last two weeks. During that time, they’ve allowed 58 runs to cross the plate in 52 IP. FTN’s Lineup Optimizer agrees with me and has the Angels at an implied team total of 6.2 runs.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-114 FD)
White Sox Team Total Over 5.5 (-107 DK)
The Tigers keep rolling out Michael Fulmer every five days in spite of all the troubles he’s had. Fulmer’s gone just 17.2 IP over his 7 starts and allowed 18 runs to cross the plate. Over those 7 starts, he’s yet to exceed three innings pitched. Knowing we’re likely getting six innings of the Tigers bullpen only enhances this play. Over the last two weeks, the Detroit bullpen has allowed 41 runs to cross the plate in 55.2 IP. During that time they’ve allowed the second-fewest ground balls and have allowed the second-most homers of any bullpen.
All this leads to good things for the White Sox hitters today. They were scorching hot about two weeks ago and have since cooled off slightly, posting a .321 team wOBA over the last 14 days. However, when we zoom in some, it looks like their heating up again. Over the last 7 days, that team wOBA jumps to .343. During that time their line drive rate is 29.4%, just .1% off the league lead. Good luck today!
Update: I tried to wait as long as I could for FanDuel to put out a line on this game. I’m hoping it comes out at an O/U of 5. That would be my preferred bet.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-107 DK)
Record on the Year: 13-14
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)