Best Baseball Bets to Make on September 19

Rich Holman highlights Saturday's best bets.

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Dodgers Team Total Over 7.5
(+102 DK)


Who doesn’t like offense? The Dodgers continue their series in Coors and will look to keep piling up the runs after the 15-run game last night. Over the last 14 days, the Dodgers have posted a team wOBA of .356, good for fifth-best in the league. On the flip side, the Rockies will send Chi Chi González to the mound. There’s not too much to say about Gonzalez as he’s allowed 10 runs to cross the plate in 9.1 IP this year. Following Gonzalez, the Dodgers will face a bullpen that has allowed 35 runs to score in their last 39.1 innings thrown. I think we see a repeat performance for the Dodgers. FTN’s Lineup Optimizer has their team total at 7.7 runs. As of this writing, the lines aren’t out for this game on FanDuel. I’m hoping the Dodgers total comes out at 7 as that would be my preferred line.

Pick: Over 7.5 (+102 DK)


Marlins Team Total Over 3.5 (-114 FD, -122 DK)


This is a different turn from the Dodgers, but 2020 has been a strange year. Over the last 14 days, none other than the Miami Marlins lead the league in team wOBA against left-handed pitching at .420. In what can only be bizarro world, this play is just as much about the Marlins offense as it is about Patrick Corbin’s struggles. I quick look at Corbin’s Baseball Savant page reveals all types of batted ball issues, including a 46.1% hard-hit rate and the highest average exit velocity allowed of his career. Following Corbin is a Nationals bullpen that still hasn’t gotten back on track. Over the last 14 days they’ve allowed a 5+ ERA thanks in part to a 41.5% hard-hit rate and just a 28.7% ground ball rate. When you’re allowing hard-hit fly balls and line drives, the ERA is likely to continue to stay up.

Pick: Over 3.5 (-114 FD)


Indians vs. Tigers Under 4.5 Runs First 5 Innings (-114 FD, -120 DK)


We get a battle of two struggling offenses in the AL Central as the Tigers meet the Indians. On the mound for the Indians is Triston McKenzie and we already know just how good the young righty has been. In five starts, he’s posted a 28.7% K-BB rate and has a 3.03 SIERA. McKenzie allowed five earned runs in his last outing against the Twins, but today gets the lowly Tigers who have posted a team wOBA of .243 against righties over the last 14 days.

Going for the Tigers today is Spencer Turnbull. The Tigers righty has struggled some with allowing walks this year, although he did walk just one batter in his last outing. He’ll face an Indians offense that has gone back into the tank. Over the last 14 days the Indians have posted a team wOBA of .283.

When I started looking at this game, I was initially thinking about the full game under. That is until I got to the bullpens — both of which have stunk. Over the last 14 days, they’ve both posted ERAs north of 5.00, with the Tigers coming in at 7.78. So let’s roll with the under for the first 5 innings. Good luck today!

Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-114 FD)


Record on the Year: 14-16

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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