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Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5
(-120 FD, -134 DK)
The first two picks involve really hot offenses in good matchups. First up is the Dodgers. Over the last 14 days, the Dodgers offense has posted a team wOBA of .360 against right-handed pitching. During that time, they have a 48.6% hard-hit rate and they’ve walked at a 10.6% clip.
On the bump for the Rockies today is Germán Márquez. One of the noticeable dropoffs from Márquez’s excellent 2018 has been his strikeout rate. Over the last three years, it has fallen from 28.1% to 24.3% in 2019 to 22.8% this year. On the contact front, Marquez has struggled with allowing both hard-contact (41.7%) and line drives (26.4%). Following Marquez will be a Rockies bullpen that has allowed 49 runs to score over their last 44.2 IP. During that time, their K-BB rate is 7.2% which ranks in the bottom-five of the league. They’ve also allowed the highest hard-hit rate (53.6%) and a line drive rate of 25.2%. The Dodgers total is easily my favorite play on today’s slate.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-120 FD)
Giants Team Total Over 4.5 (-112 FD, +110 DK)
Hot-hitting team number two for us is the Giants. Over the last 14 days, they have a team wOBA of .370. During that time, they have a hard-hit rate of 45.3% — third-best in the league. This is an offense that has been underrated by Vegas (and the fantasy community) all year.
Madison Bumgarner will be activated off the IL for today’s start. It’ll be his first appearance against his ex-team. Bumgarner struggled mightily before heading to the IL, allowing 19 runs over four starts. In those starts, he allowed four homers while posting a 7.2 K-BB%. On the batted ball front, he allowed a 52.5% hard-hit rate and a 55.9% fly-ball rate — that’ll account for those seven bombs. Being that it’s his first start off the IL, I’d expect Bumgarner to be on a pretty limited workload. Following Bumgarner will be the Diamondback bullpen who have allowed 32 runs in their last 38.1 innings thrown. During that time, they have a collective 9.2% K-BB rate, have allowed a 41% hard-hit rate, and a 25.8% line drive rate. Like the Dodgers, I think the Giants cash this team total pretty easily.
Pick: Over 4.5 (+110 DK)
Braves vs. Nationals Run Line (-1.5 -136 FD, -1.5 -124 DK)
NL Cy Young candidate Max Fried takes the mound for the Braves today. Fried has allowed just eight earned runs over his first 45 innings pitched. He’s used a combination of a low hard-hit rate (26.1%) and lots of ground balls (56.5%) to limit the damage.
On the bump for the Nationals today is Erick Fedde, who currently sports a -.8 K-BB%. While he is keeping the batted balls on the ground (54.4%), he’s also allowing a 54.4% hard-hit rate. Somehow, he’s managing to get by with a .242 BABIP. The regression monster finally caught up to Fedde in his last two starts, as he allowed 10 earned runs. Over the last 14 days, the Braves offense has been on fire, posting a .367 wOBA against right-handed pitchers.
The Nationals offense has been decent of late, posting a .343 team wOBA over the last 14 days. However, when we zoom in some, that number drops to a .279 wOBA over the last seven days against left-handed pitching. During that time, their strikeout rate has climbed to 27.5% and they’re walking just 5.9% of the time. They also minuscule 20.6% hard-hit rate against southpaws.
Finally, the bullpens are headed in opposite directions. The Braves have been excellent over the last 14 days, allowing a 2.54 ERA thanks in part to the third-highest K-BB rate and the second-lowest hard-hit rate. On the other hand, the Nats have allowed a 5.36 ERA over the last two weeks. During that time they’ve allowed a 39.5% hard-hit rate and a 24.8% line drive rate. That makes it a clean sweep for the Braves against the Nationals today and the FTN Lineup Optimizer has the Braves as the biggest favorite in terms of team totals.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (-124 DK)
Record on the Year: 13-11
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)