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Rockies Total Runs: O/U 5.5
Basically, this comes down to Framber Valdez being a suspect pitcher. He pitched well in his last start, six innings, five strikeouts on 10 whiffs (35% CSW), but that was the Mariners at home. The shift in context tonight is drastic. Valdez has allowed a 57.1% hard-hit rate, which is good for the bottom 2% of the league. Allowing lots of hard contact at Coors is not usually a recipe for success. He’ll throw the occasional change up, but he more or less has two offerings, a sinker and curveball. The sinker, which he throws 57.1% of the time, has so far returned a microscopic 5.3% swinging K rate. And it’s allowed a .432 xwOBA this season. Not great. His curveball, though, is a legitimate weapon, as he can throw it for strikes (49.5% zone rate) and get swings and misses on it (19.2% swinging K rate). Having to rely on a curveball at Coors, though, is asking for trouble. I’m not sure Valdez is the type of pitcher that can get by at high altitude. The projections over at FTN have the Rockies scoring just barely under six runs making this a tempting wager.
Pick: Over (+104 DK)
Rockies vs Astros Moneyline
Sticking with this same game, we mentioned how Valdez, despite his recent success, could easily struggle at Coors field. And Astros relievers have combined for the sixth worst K-BB% as a team this year. So it’s not hard to imagine the Rockies scoring some runs here. On the side of this game, the Astros lineup is a little banged up right now. George Springer is dealing with a wrist issue, Yordan Alvarez was just placed on the IL, and Jose Altuve has seemingly disappeared. Assuming Springer is still out, this becomes an interesting game where it wouldn’t be surprising to see the heavy road favorite Astros lose a shootout. There could be some value here in the home underdog Rockies.
Pick: Rockies (+148 DK)
Indians at Pirates Run Line
The Indians are huge road favorites today and it’s pretty easy to see why. Well, of course they are the better team, but also they also have a big edge at starting pitcher today. In 114 innings last season, Steven Brault managed a 5.16 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and a 9.3% K-BB%. Meanwhile, for the Indians, it’ll be Aaron Civale, who has emerged in 2020 with a much improved 25.7% K rate and 22.8% K-BB%. They did get to Carlos Carrasco last night, but overall this season the Pirates have managed a league worst team OBP of .273 and wOBA of .269. The Indians should be able to run away with this one.
Pick: Indians -1.5 (-104 DK)
Nationals at Braves Total Runs: O/U 10
Both lineups in this game will get to face highly suspect pitching. For the Nationals, it’ll be Erick Fedde, who so far this season has posted a 2.55 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, along with a 6.3% K% rate and 11.3% BB rate. Yes, a single digit K rate. And more walks too. That’s never a good combination. Granted, it’s a 17 inning sample, but even going back to last year Fedde’s ability to miss bats was non-existent with a 12.3% K rate across 78 innings. Add in a .391 xwOBA last season and a .399 mark this season and you have a recipe for runs. On the other side, the Braves will run out Kyle Wright. A former first-round pick from the 2017 amateur draft, Wright has shown considerable upside, but right now the walks are absolutely killing him. So far this season, Wright has posted a -5.3% K-BB% and a .431 xwOBA.
Pick: Over (-106 DK)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)