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Marlins vs Blue Jays Moneyline
You have to be really impressed with Sixto Sánchez so far. In his last start, he dominated the Rays, throwing seven scoreless innings and collecting ten strikeouts (33% CSW). The rookie has a fantastic arsenal highlighted by a fastball that reaches triple digits, a change-up that’s been very effective against lefties returning a 36% whiff rate, and a slider that’s returned a whiff rate of 35.7%. The other thing from Sánchez that you love to see from young pitchers, is a low walk rate of just 2.1% so far. And that’s supported by low walks throughout his career in the minors too. Hyun-Jin Ryu going for the Jays is, of course, no slouch. However, it might not be a bad idea to take a chance on the Marlins as home dogs when they’re starting a dynamic talent in Sánchez, especially when this will be the Blue Jays first time seeing him.
Pick: Marlins (+120 DK)
Padres Total Runs
Yes, they are coming off a trip from Coors field, regardless you have to really like this Padres offense right now. Top to bottom this lineup is impressive. As a team against RHP, their team wOBA of .355 ranks second in all of baseball just behind the Dodgers. They’ve got players in their lineup in Fernando Tatís Jr, Wil Myers, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, and Eric Hosmer who have xwOBAs over .400. They’ll be opposed by the righty Julio Teheran who through just under 18 innings pitched this season is sporting a 5.7% swinging strike rate and a 13.4% K rate. Both numbers are not only very poor but also represent career-lows for the veteran. Angels relievers have combined for a 12.4% K-BB%, that’s in the bottom ten of the league, so theres a not so good bullpen lurking here too. This comes down to a very strong offense on the road facing a susceptible pitcher with a shaky bullpen behind him.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+102 DK)
Twins vs White Sox Total Runs
This basically comes down to two very potent offenses facing two pitchers that they are very familiar with. The case is pretty easy to see with the Twins and Reynaldo López. He’s only pitched eight innings so far, but the results have been really dreadful. His fastball velocity is down just about a mile and a half mph, and not surprisingly the whiff rate on it has fallen noticeably too. The other thing that stands out is that he has not gotten a single swing and miss on his change-up. And even if you want to ignore this year’s small sample, going back to last year López wasn’t great, to put it nicely. A 5.38 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 35 home runs allowed, and a 12.9% K-BB% across 184 innings. The Twins, meanwhile, we know what they are capable of offensively as they led the league in home runs last season.
The White Sox side of this game is a little less apparent considering they are going against a stronger pitcher in José Berríos. But, Berríos has struggled noticeably this season too. His walk rate is up to 11.5% from 6.1% last season. His xERA of 4.82 is also shaky as is his .346 xwOBA allowed. This is a really talented White Sox lineup that is currently third in the league in home runs. And they are very familiar with Berríos being in the same division, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see them put up some runs here as well. The Projections at FTN have the White Sox implied total at just over 4.5 runs and the Twins at just under 5.5 runs.
Pick: Over 9 (-106 DK)
Angels vs Padres Run Line
We mentioned previously the struggles of Teheran and a lackluster Angels pen. Meanwhile, the Padres will be starting Dinelson Lamet. The gap in talent between these two starters is huge. Lamet has been very sharp this year with a 23.9% K-BB% to go along with a pristine 2.35 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The Padres as you know, were extremely aggressive at the deadline by shoring up their pen among other things and are looking at making a serious push into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Angels well, yeah they traded away Tommy La Stella and are basically playing out the string. It would not be surprising at all to see the Padres run away with this one.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (-110 DK)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)