Best Bets Across the League 9/23

Ryan Amore highlights Wednesday's best bets around baseball.

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Padres Run Line

Jaime Barria will be starting for the Angels today, he’s been fairly decent with a 3.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through four starts. He has, however, shown some pretty strong reverse splits allowing a .366 wOBA against opposing RHB for his career. That could make him vulnerable to the likes of Fernando Tatís Jr, Wil Myers, Manny Machadoand Tommy PhamThe Padres offense has been quiet lately, but for the season they also have the fourth-strongest team wOBA vs RHP at .352 so they are plenty capable of putting up some runs today. And they could certainly pull away from the Angels in a lopsided victory assuming Mike Clevinger is fully healthy, which appears to be the case after he threw his scheduled bullpen session on Monday without any ill effects. In his previous start, Clevinger pitched well going seven strong against the Giants while tallying seven strikeouts on 30% CSW.

Pick: Padres -1.5 (+110 DK)


Orioles Total Runs

Nathan Eovaldi has pitched really well this year in his eight starts with a 21.6% K-BB%, in particular, he’s done an excellent job at limiting free passes with just a 3.4% walk rate. However, the projections at FTN still have the Orioles implied run total at well over four and a half runs. It makes sense too when you consider that Eovaldi is far from a certainty. Last season he struggled plenty with a 5.05 xERA while allowing a .367 wOBA to opposing batters. Considering that Eovaldi is also likely capped at somewhere around 80 pitches or so (he threw 76 his last time out) and that the Orioles will also get to face a pen whose relievers have combined for a 5.83 ERA and 4.80 FIP, four runs doesn’t seem like too difficult of a task on the road at Fenway.

Pick: Over 3.5 (-141 DK)


Yankees Total Runs

Over the past two weeks, five games of which were against these same Blue Jays, the Yankee offense has produced to the tune of a .403 wOBA and 159 wRC+. They’ve cranked out thirty home runs and are also tied for the league lead in OBP with the Braves at .383 during that span. They’ll be facing Robbie Ray who has not pitched into the sixth inning once this year. In addition, he’s carrying an ugly 17.7% walk rate, has allowed an xwOBA of .393, and a barrel rate of 14.2% all of which put him in the bottom 10% of the league or worse. Scoring seven runs isn’t easy by any means but this is just about as bad of a matchup for Ray as you could ask for considering he’ll be facing a patient Yankee lineup that is loaded with righty power. Unless manager Aaron Boone sends out a really watered down lineup tonight, the Yankees should be able to have success tonight against Ray and the Jays pen on the road in Buffalo.

Pick: Over 6.5 (+107 DK)


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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club, Ryan Amore has been writing things at Pitcher List since 2019. He grew up watching the Yankees and fondly remembers Charlie Hayes catching the final out of the '96 WS. He appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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