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Royals @ Cleveland Run Line After 5 Innings
Jake Junis is someone I love to stack hitters against in DFS due to his proclivity for allowing home runs and Cleveland have been no stranger to that in the past. In 13 career games against Cleveland, Junis has pitched to a 6.13 ERA and players like Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana have raked against him over their careers. Lindor has especially enjoyed hitting against Junis, going 17 for 34 with four HRs.
Top prospect Triston McKenzie has been as advertised in the first three starts of his career, adding yet another stud arm to the Cleveland rotation. While I don’t love that he is facing the Royals for the second consecutive start, this one is at home and Cleveland should give him enough of a cushion early to settle in. With the odds for Cleveland -1.5 after five innings at +123 compared to -107 for the entire game, I’ll take the better odds for the early lead.
Pick: Indians -1.5 (+123 DK)
Angels @ Rangers Total O/U 8
The Angels and Rangers feature the best pitching matchup of the night with Andrew Heaney taking on Lance Lynn. Heaney has been absolutely dominant in his last three starts, striking out 16 batters in 14.2 IP with just one ER allowed. There are not many pitchers throwing as well as Heaney is right now and the Rangers have scored more than four runs just once since the calendar turned to September.
Lance Lynn has not been quite as good as over his last two starts as Heaney, but he was facing two juggernaut offenses in Houston and the Dodgers. He has been much better at home this season and since 2019 has yet to allow more than two ER against the Angels. Don’t overthink it and take the under in this pitchers duel.
Pick: UNDER 8 (-107 DK, -106 FD)
Mariners @ Giants Total O/U 8.5
There are few teams as hot as the Mariners, winners of six in a row, and the Giants, winners of six of their last eight. Both offenses are clicking over the last week (Giants 175 wRC+, Mariners 116 wRC+) and they are facing two young pitchers with underwhelming stuff. Logan Webb has been largely unimpressive this season with a 4.71 ERA and he actually has a way better HR/FB ratio then 2019 (7.1% to 17.9%). With the wind blowing out to center at 12 mph, there is a good chance that ratio goes up after facing a hot Mariners lineup, including Kyle Seager.
Ljay Newsome was very good against the Padres in his MLB debut, despite featuring a fastball that sits in the low 90s. A consummate strike thrower, Newsome will be going against one of the best lineups in baseball at making contact as the Giants are seventh in baseball with a 76.8% contact rate. The FTN Bets’ Hot Hitter Report is littered with Giants batters, and Newsome will have a very hard time replicating the four scoreless innings he produced in his debut. With the wind blowing out and two hot teams at the plate, I like the over in the late game of the night.
Pick: OVER 8.5 (-118 DK, -122 FD)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)