Best Bets Across the League 9/9

Ryan Amore highlights Wednesday's best bets around baseball.

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Tigers vs Brewers Total Runs

This comes down to two really poor offenses going against two pitchers that look to be rounding into form as we head into the final weeks. Corbin Burnes has posted a 1.75 ERA and 1.01 WHIP across his five starts this season backed by a 23.1% K-BB%. A .301 xwOBA, 3.54 xERA, and .207 xBA support his success this season too. The Tigers offense against RHP has been awful all year. As a team, they are striking out at a 28.2% rate, worst in the league.

The other side of this game features the lefty Matt Boyd. After a really rough first part of the season, Boyd has finally put together two very good starts. His latest being six innings against the Twins where he allowed 2 earned runs while collecting eight strikeouts (37% CSW). His numbers overall this year are poor, but this could be a sign of Boyd returning to the form we saw last year where he posted an excellent 23.8% K-BB% and .298 xwOBA. The Brewers offense has actually been better against lefties, but overall we’re still talking about a lineup that’s struggled often this year with a team wOBA of .302 that’s fifth from the bottom. This will also be their first time facing Boyd this season.

Pick: Under 8 (-104 DK)


Yankees Total Runs

The Yankee offense showed signs of finally coming out of a malaise a couple of nights ago against Hyun-Jin Ryu. They’ll get a chance to stack up some runs tonight against Tanner Roarkwho just hasn’t been very effective this year. His 5.74 ERA and 1.79 WHIP are backed by an even worse 6.24 xERA. Roark has a well below-average K rate of 19.6% and has let up a lot of hard contact this season with a .412 wOBA allowed (.384 xwOBA).

Having lost seven of their last eight contests, manager Aaron Boone can’t afford to hand out random rest days, he needs to go out with the best lineup available here on out. There’s more than enough firepower here to do some damage against Roark with D.J. LeMahieu (.368 xwOBA this season), Luke Voit (.421 xwOBA), Aaron Hicks (.380 xwOBA), and Clint Frazier (.380 xwOBA this season). Both Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andújar are in the middle of lost years but they’ve shown plenty of ability going back to the 2018-19 seasons.

Pick: Over 5.5 (+100 DK)


Rangers Total Runs

The Projections at FTN have the Rangers implied total at just barely under five runs. Their offense has been a mess lately, but this is more of a play on how poorly Julio Teheran has pitched this season. An awful 3.8% K-BB% so his strikeout and walk rates are nearly equal, and he’s not missing any bats this season with a 5.6% swinging-strike rate. An xBA of .338 and .xwOBA of .427 put him in the bottom 3% of the league. And an xERA of 8.06 speaks for itself. The Angels pen hasn’t been great either, with their relievers combining for a 12.9% K-BB% (17th) and 4.84 xFIP (23rd). We aren’t excited for this Rangers offense but considering Teheran’s form this year, scoring five runs isn’t too tall of a task.

Pick: Over 4.5 (+108 DK)

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club, Ryan Amore has been writing things at Pitcher List since 2019. He grew up watching the Yankees and fondly remembers Charlie Hayes catching the final out of the '96 WS. He appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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