Hello! Welcome back to my weekly picks column. Being two weeks since we last spoke, I am sure it is easy to forget I missed a few more (longshot) games before the All-Star Break pushing my ledger down further. I now stand at 20-22-1 (-0.7u) on the season and am looking to get my head back above water here!
Orioles @ Rays Run Line
This one is simple enough: Michael Wacha is not good enough to warrant these lofty odds for the Rays. Sure, Alexander Wells is starting for the Orioles and is certainly nothing to write home about, but this pitching matchup is far more palatable than your average 2:1 play. I have found myself playing a good bit of these single-game longshots and with good reason. Remember, win/loss record is far less important than profiting.
Pick: ORIOLES (+200 DraftKings, +205 FanDuel)
Twins @ White Sox Run Line
What’s that? You wanted ANOTHER American League bottom-dweller underdog play? This is probably the last few days of watching the Twins as we have come to know them over the last handful of years, but most of their big-boppers will be in the lineup tonight against Dylan Cease and the White Sox.
Despite their horrific season, the Twins still rank as one of the best offenses in baseball. They have the highest Barrel Rate in the league and fifth-highest xwOBA. Pitching has been their Achilles heel, but Pineda has not been awful (great compliment). Cease’s command still waivers, at times, and he is prone to hard contact.
Pick: TWINS (+125 DK, +128 FD)
Max Krannick O/U 3.5 Strikeouts
The Pirates and Diamondbacks have been embroiled in a must-see battle of two of the game’s elite teams. Completely kidding, but the Diamondbacks are flirting with their first series sweep since April 20-22nd when they took three straight from the Reds. Pirates’ rookie Max Kranick stands in their way.
No type of prospect (28th ranked in PIT system by MLB Pipeline), Kranick’s stuff has flashed during his first two major-league starts. He threw five perfect innings against the Cardinals in his debut before struggling against the Mets 11 days ago. His slider impressed me in each start, showing some decent bite (15% more horizontal break than average) and velocity (88 mph) relative to its lack of spin. I like Kranick to beat this number.
Pick: OVER 3.5 Ks (+120 DK)
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)