Wheewww, a little bit later than usual (Memorial Day put my whole week out of whack), but I’m here with some picks nonetheless. Maybe it would have been better to miss them coming off my first winless week of the season — with one PPD that would have hit. Tragic as it may, I’m still above water at 12-11-1 (+1.1u) and needing a few victories to get back on track.
Dodgers vs. Cardinals: Moneyline
I am going to make a conscious effort to delve more into the betting strategy moving forward along with the process for the pick itself. Projections Wizard and creator of both THE BAT and THE BAT X Derek Carty wrote out an incredibly valuable guide to sports betting yesterday. Anyone who puts money down on these games should give it a read.
One point he gave was finding inflated odds and going against them. That’s what I plan to do here. At first glance, Walker Buehler vs Carlos Martínez seems like an easy pick. Buehler is great, Martínez is not. Lock it down. However, the Cardinals are sitting at +200. This is a very good all-around team that has a deep lineup, an outstanding bullpen, and plays great defense. I don’t necessarily think they’ll win, but they’re worth the risk to potentially double your winnings.
Pick: CARDINALS (+200 DraftKings, +198 FanDuel)
David Peterson: O/U 4.5 Ks
Peterson has had a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde season. On one hand, he’s only given up more than three earned runs once (his first start of the year) and is striking out an impressive 26.6% of opposing hitters. On the other hand, he’s failed to reach the fifth inning in four of his nine starts. Being a Mets fan and watching Peterson more intently than most, you can tell right away if he’s feeling it or not. He’ll have confidence in both his fastball and slider and not nibble.
With two rainouts last weekend, Peterson will make this start on nine days rest. He’s had four starts this year with at least a week off. Ironically, they were his two best and two worst games of the entire season. While it’s impossible to glean anything from that, I’m optimistic Peterson gets over this number against a paltry D-Backs lineup.
Pick: OVER 4.5 Ks (-129 DK, -126 FD)
Braves: O/U 5.5 Runs Scored
That is a huge run total. Basically the largest you’ll ever see when making these picks. That puts a pit in my stomach, but I’m riding it. The Braves are facing Jon Lester, who ran out of ’stuff’ probably two or three years ago and has been getting by with smoke and mirrors ever since. His 4.91 ERA this season is honestly shocking given his 9.7 K-BB% and 88.6 mph fastball. Lester is still a legend, and it’s truthfully impressive that he’s better than league average with basically just a brain and no left arm.
Even if Lester guts it out for a few innings, Washington’s bullpen is heavily taxed after Stephen Strasburg was pulled in the second inning yesterday. Just to add another tidbit, this game is in Atlanta and will be hot and humid at first pitch. The Braves are sure to put some runs up this evening.
Pick: OVER 5.5 runs (+110 DK)
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)