Welcome back to Best Bets, Wednesday edition. I’m your host, Tim Speros, but you can call me cousin Timmy. My goal for this article is to hit for the cycle. The four hits will start with a single, our most likely bet to hit according to the odds, and will finish with my Home Run call of the night, our most difficult bet to hit according to the odds. Grab your helmet, adjust your batting gloves if you’re wearing any, and step up to the plate, it’s time to swing the bat.
Last week was another good one, going 3-for-4 with the only miss being the Single call for the Phillies. They lost 2-1 in 10 innings after both teams got shutout in the first nine frames. My analysis on Zack Wheeler was correct, but the Phillies bats went limp vs. Martín Pérez, who has officially reached Vargas Rule territory (credit to Nick Pollack). Ready to win some money? Let’s get to tonight’s action.
Single
The Cardinals (16-13) play host to Spenser Watkins and the Baltimore Orioles (13-17) who have won three straight games and are swinging a hot bat. Miles Mikolas is on the hill for St. Louis who is looking to end their three-game skid. Mikolas is the guy that can help with that. Mikolas has pitched in six games and in those games the Cardinals opponents have scored a total of six runs. All of the Statcast numbers for Mikolas are better than league average except for his K rate (19.9%). His hard contact rate sits at 21.2% which is top-12 in the majors. For the O’s, Spenser Watkins has improved since last season, like many others in their rotation, but three of his five starts have been at home in the new pitchers park. His 24.9 CSW% and 10 K in 22 innings are not great. I won’t be surprised if the O’s hit a home run or two but I don’t think they have enough fire power to keep up with the Redbirds tonight given the SP matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals Money Line (-230) FanDuel Sportsbook
Double
More Cardinals for the two-bagger bet today. We could go with a number of players for this, but Juan Yepez is my guy. Since his call up two weeks ago he’s hitting .474 with a .561 wOBA, and is tied for the team lead with 4 runs scored. He should be hitting 5th in the order today and he has done a great job getting on base — exactly what we need to hit this run prop. The Cardinals could end up scoring a lot of runs today with the forecast set for sun a temperature of 90 degrees at game time. Hot weather usually means better hitting conditions.
Juan Yepez OVER 0.5 Runs (-105) FanDuel Sportsbook
Triple
Chris Archer has pitched well this season and is making a case for comeback pitcher of the year but Houston is hitting their stride with Jose Altuve back and healthy. The Astros have won eight games in a row and I think they make it nine today behind the bat of Kyle Tucker. Altuve and Alex Bregman both have an OBP over .400 while Tucker has a 44% hard contact rate with 9 RBI during this winning streak. The Astros get to Archer early and Tucker knocks in some runs at plus odds.
Kyle Tucker to record an RBI (+140) FanDuel Sportsbook
Home Run
You made it. We are three bets in and I’m ready to call my shot. I’m 3-for-5 in home run calls that have produced massive ROIs to keep our bankroll flourishing. How do I do it? Well, it’s all about matchups and who’s hitting the ball hard. Bomb squad leader of the day is Anthony Rizzo! José Berríos is on the hill for the Blue Jays and he has not been the ace they had hoped for. In 28 innings this season, Berríos has a 7.00 xERA and a 14.8% K rate, a career low. This game is at Yankee Stadium and Berríos has surrounded four home runs on the road, three to LHH. I like some other guys to homer today like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Yordan Alvarez, but Rizzo gives us the best odds at +440. Rizzo has 9 HR, tied for the major league lead with three others.
Anthony Rizzo to hit a HR (+440) FanDuel Sportsbook
There you have it folks, another chance to hit for the cycle with me in 2022. Good luck tonight and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend. See you next time.
Tim Speros Overall Record: 13-7-0
Singles: 3-2
Doubles: 4-1
Triples: 3-2
HR: 3-2
Net Money (Assuming all bets are individual wagers of $100): $1484.92
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)